Josh Kennedy is just one of a number of West Coast talls who might benefit from the new rules. Photo: AFL MEDIA
WEST COAST
2018 record: 19 wins, 6 losses (1st)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 4th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 8th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 16th
THE INS
Tom Hickey (St Kilda), Josh Smith (Collingwood), Keegan Brooksby (South Adelaide), Xavier O’Neill (Oakleigh Chargers), Luke Foley (Subiaco), Bailey Williams (Dandenong Stingrays), Jarrod Cameron (Swan Districts), Harry Edwards (Swan Districts), Patrick Bines (Melbourne Tigers – SEABL), Brodie Riach (Altona Gators – Big V)
THE OUTS
Scott Lycett (Port Adelaide), Eric Mackenzie (retired), Mark LeCras (retired), Malcolm Karpany (delisted), Luke Partington (delisted), Ryan Burrows (delisted), Callan England (delisted), Tony Olango (delisted), Tarir Bayok (delisted)
THE BEST 22
B: Tom Barrass, Will Schofield, Liam Duggan
HB: Shannon Hurn, Jeremy McGovern, Brad Sheppard
C: Jack Redden, Elliot Yeo, Dom Sheed
HF: Liam Ryan, Jack Darling, Jamie Cripps
F: Nathan Vardy, Josh Kennedy, Willie Rioli
R: Tom Hickey, Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff
Inter: Lewis Jetta, Mark Hutchings, Chris Masten, Tom Cole
Emerg: Daniel Venables, Jake Waterman, Jackson Nelson, Keegan Brooksby
THE PROGNOSIS
Why do so few pundits tip a reigning premier to back it up with another flag the next season ? Because they’re harder than ever to win. So goes the theory, anyway.
Is it actually the case, though? Over the past couple of decades or so, we’ve seen two clubs (Brisbane and Hawthorn) perform a premiership hat-trick, and another (Adelaide) win back-to-back flags. In the 60 years prior to the Lions’ 2001 flag, just one club, Melbourne had managed three straight premierships.
AFL clubs might be closer in terms of standard now from top to bottom, but perhaps also the best teams have got better at maintaining their peak once it’s been hit. After all, only two premiership teams in 20 years have missed the following season’s finals.
West Coast will be doing that at the very least in 2019. But I think the Eagles are also a very good chance of annexing another flag besides.
I’ve been taken aback by how few tipsters have the Eagles saluting again this year. Because I think their credentials as a potential back-to-back flag side exceed most of those other modern examples.
Why? Well, let’s start with the line-up which actually won on grand final day, then add the significant names of Andrew Gaff, Brad Sheppard and then, from mid-season, arguably the most important of them all, Nic Naitanui.
Let’s take into account West Coast’s considerable home state advantage, which saw it last year go 14-3 even at a new venue in Optus Stadium. More significantly, consider how the Eagles have now also nailed the travel factor, winning eight of 11 road trips in 2018, and shrugging off that alleged MCG hoodoo, winning all three games there.
Consider the slate of new rules, particularly the 6-6-6 centre bounce formation and the abolition of the “hands in the back” free kick, both of which logically should favour good tall forwards in terms of room to move and body positioning.
Then remember that in Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling, Jake Waterman and leading ruck pair Naitanui and Nathan Vardy have a slew of accomplished marking targets who can all kick goals.
Think about a super backline featuring arguably the game’s best defender Jeremy McGovern, skipper Shannon Hurn, Tom Barrass and Sheppard.
Then think about the number of players even among the premiership 22 whose best may still be in front of them.
Not just the obvious candidates in 2018 debutants Willie Rioli and Liam Ryan, but Vardy, finally free of injury, and defender Tom Cole, Liam Duggan and Daniel Venables. And those who have barely even had a chance yet, the likes of Waterman, Jackson Nelson, Brendon Ah Chee, Oscar Allen and Jack Petruccelle.
This season, the Eagles will have only three players – Kennedy, Hurn and Will Schofield – on the wrong side of 30. They’re still only mid-table in the AFL for games experience, too. It’s the profile of a team which has every chance of hanging around the upper reaches of the ladder for a fair while yet.
And having now smashed several staunchly-held convictions about its alleged lack of mettle in the most convincing manner possible, I suspect West Coast is ready to cash in again when it counts most.
THE PREDICTION
1st. Tough when they need to be, polished when it’s required, chock full of talent in every part of the ground, the Eagles are a handful for any opponent, these days just as much on the road as at home, too. Home or away, West Coast is going to take a power of stopping once again.
THE LADDER (click on team to read)
1. WEST COAST
2. RICHMOND
3. MELBOURNE
4. ADELAIDE
5. COLLINGWOOD
6. ESSENDON
7. NORTH MELBOURNE
8. GEELONG
9. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
10. HAWTHORN
11. SYDNEY
12. BRISBANE LIONS
13. PORT ADELAIDE
14. WESTERN BULLDOGS
15. FREMANTLE
16. CARLTON
17. ST KILDA
18. GOLD COAST
