US vice-president and Democrat nominee Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump. Photo: AAP
Almost exactly four years ago, on an early November evening here in California, my Twitter account started blowing up.
From all corners of Australia, some of my mates were expressing worry that my prediction of Joe Biden winning the White House wouldn’t happen, while others told me I was flat wrong.
I smiled. I was neither smug, nor impatient in my responses — just confident. Just wait, I told them. I thought they knew — an election is never over until all the votes are counted.
Then it hit me. Maybe I should write a little guide for Aussies on how to watch and what to look for in a US presidential election. So here goes.
Because Americans just love to be different — and to ensure checks and balances against anything and everything — our presidential contests are ruled by a system called the Electoral College, despite every registered voter having one vote.
Don’t worry. I’m not going to lecture you all on what the Electoral College is, but you’ll need to know the basics, and it’ll help you figure out who’s going to win between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former White House occupant Donald Trump.
To the rest of the world, the uniquely American electoral college system must seem very confusing, confounding and illogical.
The rest of the world isn’t wrong. Even Harris’s running mate Tim Walz has publicly called for the system to be abolished.
In any democratic country, any candidate with the most votes in an election, or who garners at least 50 per cent of votes should be declared the winner, right?
Run that idea by 2016 Democratic Party presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, who despite polling three million more votes than Trump, lost.
Pose that same question to Clinton’s husband Bill, who won the presidency in 1992 with 43 percent of the vote, despite Republican Party incumbent George H.W. Bush and independent candidate Ross Perot combining for 56 per cent.
But let’s go back to the 2020 contest for a moment.
To my Australian friends who tuned in to watch early news coverage of the returns, it looked like Trump would cruise to a landslide victory, because news outlets were calling the race in a few states for him.
It’ll likely look that way this week, too.
But US presidential elections aren’t like footy matches. There’s no smashing an opponent in the middle of the ground, lacing teammates out 30 metres directly in front of goal, slotting set shots, building commanding leads, then milking the clock to take away an opponent’s precious time. A score worm doesn’t translate.
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Here’s why: Each state has a different number of electoral votes, based on population. California, where I live, has the most, 54, while the District of Columbia, Vermont, Alaska, and Rhode Island have the least, three.
The number for victory is 270 electoral votes — not the number of states a candidate wins. That’s why this week’s electoral map may look more Republican red than Democratic blue, but the Democratic candidate may win.
The US website 270towin forecasts Harris winning 226 electoral votes, Trump winning 219, and the remaining 93 up for grabs.
If you’re looking to become a quick expert on how to follow the action and predict the winning result, here’s what to do.
First, find a website with a graphic showing the different states’ poll closing times. Across 50 states and five time zones, those all vary.
Two reliably Republican states, Kentucky and Indiana, are the first to close and release numbers. Put those in the Trump column.
An hour later, things will start evening up. Five more states close polls — Vermont, New Hampshire, and Virginia will go for Harris, while Trump will take Florida. Georgia’s results, though, may not be known for a few days because that race is forecast to be very tight.
Ninety minutes later, Trump will really look as if he’s headed for victory. He’ll pick up 10 more reliably Republican states across the south and upper midwest plains, with Harris netting seven along the eastern seaboard. As with Georgia, results from the all-important battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania may take a few days to sort out.
On and on it will continue, deep into the American night. In the end, it will very likely come down to results from seven states: Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona, where — depending on what poll you believe, either Harris or Trump is ahead.
But the counting won’t end there. In many states, same-day votes are counted before early and mail-in ballots. That’s no small feat. According to the New York Times, 75 million votes already have been cast.
One variable, though, is only discernible from being on the ground, here — late momentum.
And that’s just one reason I’m tipping Harris, who’ll win with a bigger than expected margin, and make American history.
