Melbourne is strong in all parts of the ground. The Demons just need the belief to back it up. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
MELBOURNE
2018 record: 16 wins, 9 losses (4th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 10th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 13th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 18th
THE INS
Steven May (Gold Coast), Kade Kolodjashnij (Gold Coast), Braydon Preuss (North Melbourne), Tom Sparrow (South Adelaide), James Jordon (Oakleigh Chargers), Aaron Nietschke (Central District), Marty Hore (Collingwood VFL), Toby Bedford (Dandenong Stingrays), Kade Chandler (Norwood), Corey Wagner (Casey Demons), Austin Bradtke (Melbourne Tigers – SEABL), Guy Walker (Melbourne Renegades – BBL)
THE OUTS
Jesse Hogan (Fremantle), Dom Tyson (North Melbourne), Dean Kent (St Kilda), Harley Balic (retired), Bernie Vince (retired), Cameron Pedersen (delisted), Tomas Bugg (delisted – Carlton), Mitch King (delisted), Pat McKenna (delisted), Lachlan Filipovic (delisted), Dion Johnstone (delisted)
THE BEST 22
B: Neville Jetta, Steven May, Oscar McDonald
HB: Michael Hibberd, Jake Lever, Christian Salem
C: Clayton Oliver, Nathan Jones, James Harmes
HF: Alex Neal-Bullen, Sam Weideman, Christian Petracca
F: Jake Melksham, Tom McDonald, Mitch Hannan
R: Max Gawn, Jack Viney, Angus Brayshaw
Inter: Charlie Spargo, Aaron vandenBerg, Bayley Fritsch, Jordan Lewis
Emerg: Sam Frost, Joel Smith, Kade Kolodjashnij, Jeff Garlett
THE PROGNOSIS
It says plenty about the quality of list Melbourne has assembled that when the speculation about Jesse Hogan heading back to Western Australia began a couple of years back it was seen as a potential disaster, and by the time it did finally happen it didn’t really alter the popular view about the Demons’ immediate future.
How much talent does Melbourne have? Well, Champion Data’s 2019 prospectus rates the Demons’ list the best in the competition. I’m not sure I’d go that far, but it’s close enough.
From the most potent attack in the AFL, to a midfield that bats deep indeed and has a terrific blend of hardness, polished ball use and a bit of dash, to a defence which was already solid enough and should be better still for the recruitment of Steven May and mid-season return from injury of Jake Lever, Melbourne seems to have all bases covered.
In fact, there’s an argument Melbourne’s toughest opponent in 2019 might only be itself. The Demons’ tendency to be a bit too easily satisfied with their accomplishments arguably cost them a finals spot in 2016-17.
It was less of an issue last year, obviously, but Melbourne did still receive a savage beating at the hands of West Coast with a grand final spot on the line, and several of its losses were ignominious. It also, even after two good finals victories, did finish with a record of only 4-7 against top eight teams.
Yet even that negative record has an upside. When the Demons infamously blew a very handy lead at Geelong and were beaten after the siren by a goal to Zach Tuohy in round 18, that record against the top eight was an even more dismal 0-5.
That potentially fatal loss in fact proved a real turning point. At that stage only the 10th best team defensively, the Dees really tightened up, ranking fifth over the last five home and away games despite playing three top eight rivals in that period.
From that evening until the preliminary final belting, Melbourne won six out of seven games, including beating West Coast in Perth, and was 4-1 against the top eight teams. That’s the face the Demons will need to present in 2019 to go further than last year.
And hardness around the contest certainly isn’t an issue, the Demons streeting the rest of the league for winning contested ball. Of course, they also have the game’s pre-eminent ruckman in Max Gawn.
Hogan will still be missed up forward, but the rapid emergence of Sam Weideman in last year’s finals series will have coach Simon Goodwin breathing a little easier about the potential cost.
His departure has also been alleviated by the posse of medium-sized and smaller goalkickers Goodwin now has at his disposal, plus Tom McDonald’s transformation from defender to dangerous, reliable key forward.
Jake Melksham, Mitch Hannan, Alex Neal-Bullen, Christian Petracca and Jeff Garlett are the pick, but there’s others like Bailey Fritsch more than capable of playing the role.
It still isn’t going to come easy to a team looking for its first premiership in 55 years, and Melbourne does have, according to Footyology’s fixture analysis, the toughest draw of anyone in 2019. But make no mistake, if the Dees do fall short again, it won’t be for want of talent.
THE PREDICTION
3rd. Melbourne has reached just two grand finals since its last premiership, but had the misfortune to come up against two of the greatest teams the game had seen in Hawthorn (1988) and Essendon (2000). The rivals this year aren’t of that calibre, and this Demon outfit is also far better equipped.
THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
3. MELBOURNE
4. ADELAIDE
5. COLLINGWOOD
6. ESSENDON
7. NORTH MELBOURNE
8. GEELONG
9. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
10. HAWTHORN
11. SYDNEY
12. BRISBANE LIONS
13. PORT ADELAIDE
14. WESTERN BULLDOGS
15. FREMANTLE
16. CARLTON
17. ST KILDA
18. GOLD COAST
