The noise surrounding Essendon has been loud. But the Bombers still have some improving to do. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
ESSENDON
2018 record: 12 wins, 10 losses (11th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 5th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 16th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 15th
THE INS
Dylan Shiel (GWS), Irving Mosquito (Gippsland Power), Noah Gown (Gippsland Power), Brayden Ham (Geelong Falcons), Tom Jok (Collingwood), Zac Clarke (Subiaco)
THE OUTS
Travis Colyer (Fremantle), Brendon Goddard (delisted), Jackson Merrett (delisted), Josh Green (delisted), Matthew Leuenberger (retired)
THE BEST 22
B: Aaron Francis, Cale Hooker, Marty Gleeson
HB: Conor McKenna, Michael Hurley, Adam Saad
C: David Zaharakis, Dyson Heppell, Andrew McGrath
HF: Orazio Fantasia, Mitch Brown, Devon Smith
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Joe Daniher, Jake Stringer
R: Tom Bellchambers, Dylan Shiel, Zach Merrett
Inter: David Myers, Darcy Parish, Kyle Langford, Jordan Ridley
Emerg: Mark Baguley, Patrick Ambrose, Matt Guelfi, Jayden Laverde
THE PROGNOSIS
The longer Essendon goes without winning a final (and it’s been 15 years now) the greater the level of scepticism about a new football year being any different for the Dons.
That’s fair enough, too. After all, this was a 2017 finalist which failed to back up an admittedly brief September campaign with any finals action at all season. Then again, the Essendon team which took the field for the last 14 games of 2018 was a different beast altogether from that which had stumbled through the first two months.
The positivity this time is due mainly to the 10 wins and three narrow losses which came in that final two-thirds of last season, but also the recruitment of a top-line midfielder in former Giant Dylan Shiel.
This critic shares that optimism, but with a few significant reservations. One is how Joe Daniher, absent for the entirety of that improvement and now for the first month of this season as well, fits back into a forward mix which looked more flexible and multi-faceted when the key target wasn’t there.
Another is that, for all that obvious improvement, the four defeats in that period were against Richmond (twice), Collingwood and Hawthorn, all of whom finished the home and away rounds as top four teams. In fact, over the whole season, the Bombers were a dismal 1-5 against the eventual top four, albeit the one victory a ripper in Perth against West Coast.
A final concern is inexperience. Perhaps surprisingly, given they’re the fifth-oldest list in the AFL, the Dons are also the third least-experienced group in the AFL, more seasoned only than Gold Coast and Brisbane.
Bottom line, Essendon is going to have to be better again than it was last May-August to reach finals, let alone actually win one. But I think it can be.
Critical to that assessment is the fact the Bombers actually did last season finally get on top of an on-going issue, that was finding the correct balance between attack and defence, much tighter than they had been in that disastrous 2-6 start, but without sacrificing any potency.
Once what was early on a pretty unaccountable midfield got its defensive act together, Essendon began to exert the sort of pressure and create the requisite turnovers the good teams do.
That helped already an pretty decent backline create plenty more attack via the likes of Adam Saad, and it made life a lot easier for the forwards. Which is also the considerable upside to Daniher’s return, along with the new set zones at centre bounces which will offer him more space.
The other big issue for the Dons has been midfield depth and quality. To that end, I think Shiel might be the final piece of John Worsfold’s jigsaw puzzle.
Shiel, Devon Smith, Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell, Andy McGrath, David Zaharakis, Kyle Langford, Darcy Parish, David Myers and some pinch-hitting at stoppages from Jake Stringer represents in terms of quality and quantity the best midfield group the Bombers have assembled arguably since around 2001.
Add that to the solidity at either end of the ground and it should equal not just finals, but at least one finals victory. We’ve heard that before, of course, but this time there will be serious questions ask if the reality doesn’t match the promise.
THE PREDICTION
6th. Essendon’s game style has been a mess at times in recent years but has now settled into a consistent blend of speedy attack without sacrificing too much defensive steel. There’s some serious talent in the best 22 and enough cohesion now to worry the best.
THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
6. ESSENDON
7. NORTH MELBOURNE
8. GEELONG
9. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
10. HAWTHORN
11. SYDNEY
12. BRISBANE LIONS
13. PORT ADELAIDE
14. WESTERN BULLDOGS
15. FREMANTLE
16. CARLTON
17. ST KILDA
18. GOLD COAST
An Essendon supporter here and i cant see us finishing better than 9th. Missing Daniher and Hooker in the first 5 weeks will see the Dons lucky to be better than 3 wins from 5. In fact, they will have done well to be 6 wins from the first 10 based on a fairly tough draw. Worsfold had a great balance going in the last 14 games in 2018. Then they bring defensive coach Rutten in from Richmond and they are clearly tweaking the game plan again. Heppell’s call for the fans to be patient beggars belief after 15 years of mediocrity. Essendon has a cultural problem. Dare I say, Essendon is the new Richmond…the 1981 to 2016 version.
Bombers supporter here too. David, I agree. Essendon seem to be a club that is mired in unfulfilled potential. I had high hopes for this season, but after seeing our performance in JLT I have massive concerns about where we’re heading. I don’t know enough about the culture at the Hangar to comment on it too much, but I have wondered for a long time whether the Bombers have fallen into a holding pattern of mediocrity. The last part of last year shows we can execute an attacking game style and dominate for periods of games. But having played a decent quarter or two, we would often fall away for long periods too. Your comments on Rutten, and Heppell’s comments about needing more time to master the new defensive system are really interesting to me. Why do we want to copy Richmond anyway? West Coast won last year with a completely different style to the Tigers, and winning game styles must evolve each year to sustain success. If all we’re doing by bringing in Rutten is tightening up the defence, fine. But the Bombers need their own winning style. My biggest frustration from the JLT series and from last season was the apparent lack of forward system. Two marks inside forward 50 against the Cats a couple of weeks ago. That is telling. My biggest concerns are how we set up inside attacking 50, as well as our forward entry. I wonder whether we’re just going to start this season with the same kind of indecisiveness that killed the first 8 weeks in 2018. I watched Woosha’s interview on Fox Footy a couple of days ago. He commented on how much time he spends away from his family and how he hopes Heppell and the boys can hurry up and win a flag (so he can move back to Perth).
This all but confirmed what I’ve been thinking for a long time; that this long stint living in Melbourne has been understandably tough for him and his family and that he’ll move back to Perth sooner rather than later. I’ve often thought about how his displacement from his family might have affected his coaching performance. It’s hard to know really. Having said all that, Woosha seems to have done a phenomenal job getting EFC back on track after 2015. That should not be understated. He was the perfect man for the job and we Bombers fans should be eternally grateful for the rebuild he masterminded. My feeling is that he will head home to Perth after the 2020 season at the latest regardless of what happens. I would love to see Blake Caracella take over after Woosha heads back west. Go Dons!