The Oscars 2021: Your definitive nomination guide

Frances McDormand in Chloé Zhao’s film “Nomadland”, Andrea Connolly’s tip to win this year’s Oscar for “Best Picture”.

We’re finally here. We’ve finally made it. I feel like Maeve in “Westworld” when she realises that she can get out of the park. This has been the longest awards season of my life.

That’s not even hyperbole, it literally is. I’ve been predicting for this specific awards season since New Year’s Eve 2019, before COVID-19 was a pandemic and when half the country was on fire. It’s been so long, I almost can’t believe it’s nearly over. With so many awards having extended deadlines and different rules, it’s been a hell of a year to predict.

But the Oscar nominations are finally here, the end is nigh. I’ve been keeping a running tally of my predictions since I started fresh for 2020 (feels ironic, doesn’t it?) and it’s currently 25 pages long. Should be at least 30 by the time we get to the actual ceremony.

As in every year, there are enough surprises to keep me on my toes and enough I’ve guessed correctly to feel vindicated. With the most nominations is David Fincher’s “Mank” with 10 nods, followed by “The Father”, “Judas and the Black Messiah”, “Minari”, “Nomadland”, “Sound of Metal” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, all with six nods respectively. “Promising Young Woman” follows close behind with five nominations.

This is a ground-breaking year. Two women are nominated for Best Director! Two women! That’s literally never happened in 93 years of Academy Awards! It’s exciting!

Whilst reading through the full list of nominations on Tuesday morning, it had become increasingly clear to me that I’d underestimated some films, like “Minari”, and overestimated others, like “Da 5 Bloods”. And whilst I’m sad to see the latter largely unacknowledged, it’s always a pleasant surprise when a film like “Minari” makes it, when I wasn’t sure it could break through.

I haven’t been predicting nominees/winners for Best International Feature Film, Best Documentary Feature, Best Documentary Short Subject, Best Animated Short Film, Best Live-Action Short Film and Best Visual Effects.

I haven’t seen enough of the potential contenders in these categories, and I’d largely be talking out of my arse if I started now. So, without further ado, here are my predictions on this year’s Oscar nominations, minus a few categories.

BEST PICTURE
“Nomadland” (Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, producers) WINNER
“Promising Young Woman” (Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, producers)
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, producers)
“Mank” (Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, producers)
“Minari” (Christina Oh, producer)
“The Father” (David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, producers)
“Sound of Metal” (Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, producers)
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, producers)

I am mostly unsurprised by this line-up. I’ve been predicting a very close version of it for months. We’ve ended up with eight nominees instead of 10, which will change once the new rule comes into place that fixes the nominees at 10 in coming years.

I’m pleasantly surprised that “Sound of Metal” ended up with six nominations, it’s thoroughly deserving and I’m very happy it also managed to crack the Best Picture line-up as I was close to taking it out of my predictions.

This also solidifies the fact I’ve clearly been underestimating “Minari” for months, because after things went quiet in the wake of Sundance 2020, I assumed it wouldn’t catch on. I’ve not seen it yet, but I’m glad to be wrong.

I’d been predicting a 10-picture line-up all year, just assuming the amount of potential nominees from streaming services would widen the field, which was somewhat misguided. As a result, three contenders from streaming services that I’d been predicting since they premiered, “Da 5 Bloods”, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “One Night in Miami”, ended up missing.

I’m not sure this is a repeat of #OscarsSoWhite with there being more diversity in general amongst the various nominees. However, the fact that three films from black directors and which featured majority black casts ended up missing will draw some conversation. And rightfully so.

I may not personally have liked “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”, but I always assumed it would crack Best Picture if it got Best Actress and Best Actor nominations as well as some techs. It got all of these and yet somehow missed.

“One Night in Miami” and “Da 5 Bloods”? I guess my personal enjoyment of both clouded my judgement as to how the AMPAS would receive them, but assumed after critics’ awards and some precursors they could still make it. I think there’s a lot to be said that two extremely strong films missed whilst white academy catnip “Mank” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” made it.

I am currently predicting “Nomadland” for the win, but I think “Minari”, “Promising Young Woman” or even “Sound of Metal” could make it based on passion alone. In short, if it has an acting nomination, a directing nomination and a screenplay nomination, it could win. But “Nomadland” has the strongest precursor support, and “Promising Young Woman” and “Nomadland” are the only films to get the trifecta of Director, Screenplay and Editing.

BEST DIRECTOR
Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) WINNER
Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)
David Fincher (“Mank”)
Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”)
Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”)

Thomas Vinterberg making it with “Another Round” having no other nominations (aside from International Film) is kind of astounding. It’s one of those surprises the Academy puts out from time to time that completely throws you. This is the first time this has happened since David Lynch 19 years ago for “Mullholland Drive”.

Once the BAFTA nominations were announced, I should’ve guessed that Vinterberg could be a spoiler, but still, colour me surprised. I’ve been predicting Zhao, Fennell and Fincher as locked for nominations for quite some time.

I honestly thought Darius Marder (“Sound of Metal”) could have been a spoiler for that fifth spot. But Vinterberg is a way to keep it exciting. I was still pulling for Spike Lee and “Da 5 Bloods” to the bitter end, but as we got closer and closer to March I had to accept that he would not be making the line-up.

I’d been predicting Aaron Sorkin for “The Trial of the Chicago 7” since it came out, not because of my unending love for the film (I thought it was only OK) but because it’s exactly the kind of film and direction I’d expect to make it regardless of other worthier contenders.

He even made the DGA Awards (Director’s Guild of America, many of the same members nominate for Best Director at the Academy Awards). But in the end the European and British bloc pulled through. And I’m here for it.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) WINNER
Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”)
Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)
Gary Oldman (“Mank”)
Steven Yeun (“Minari”)

This is almost exactly what I tipped in my last pre-nomination crack at this thing. Steven Yeun made it over Delroy Lindo for “Da 5 Bloods”, something about which I am still slightly bitter. But I am very, very happy for Yeun, who is apparently remarkable in “Minari”, and was amazing in Lee Chang-dong’s “Burning” a couple of years back.

Interestingly, Boseman is the only nominee in this category for a film not also nominated for Best Picture. I’d expected him to sweep every precursor and win easily, and it’s the last chance to award him after his untimely death from cancer last year.

However, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” missing Best Picture suddenly changes things. I still think he will win, but the possibility for another actor to come through and win it is a lot stronger now.

Actors in Best Picture nominees get seen by wider audiences, thus are likely to garner more votes. I must be honest, I’m not a huge fan of Boseman’s performance in the film, it’s acting with a capital ‘A’, and you’re fully aware of it the entire time. But I cannot begrudge him the posthumous win as he was immensely talented and his death is a real loss to the arts.

If he does not win because of Ma Rainey’s weaker than expected showing, I hope Riz Ahmed pulls through. He was a revelation in “Sound of Metal” and he’s my personal winner this year.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) WINNER
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”)
Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Andra Day (“The United States v. Billie Holiday”)

Another category that turned out much like I’ve predicted all year. The consensus four: Mulligan, McDormand, Kirby and Davis. Plus Andra Day after her Globe win. This outcome is not very surprising, although that fifth spot has been fluctuating for some months.

I went from predicting Day, to Amy Adams for Hillbilly Elegy, to Rosamund Pike for I Care A Lot, because I had zero idea who would make it. After the Globes, it seemed inevitable that Day would take the slot. However, the film being poorly received and not hitting SAG or BAFTA and some other precursors gave me pause.

Frankly, Day made it because it’s a film about Billie Holliday, and her performance is apparently the best thing in the mediocrity surrounding her. If she wins, it’s giving me shades of Rami Malek’s win for “Bohemian Rhapsody”. That’s not a good thing.

At this juncture, I reckon the win is going to be between Mulligan and McDormand. But honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kirby or Day somehow pulled an upset. After a BAFTA snub for Mulligan but Kirby managing to make it, and Day’s upset win at the Globes, who even knows anymore.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) WINNER
Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)
Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”)
Lakeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)

I’m genuinely shocked about what has happened here. I’d been tipping a double nomination for Chadwick Boseman for ages for his supporting role in “Da 5 Bloods” and after he received SAG, CCA, AACTA and Satellite Awards nominations for the role. But I’m still less shocked that Boseman missed than Stanfield made it, and in supporting, too.

I thought Stanfield was great in “Judas and the Black Messiah”, that’s not surprising. However, I thought for sure he would be campaigned in lead and Kaluuya would sweep supporting. With this double nomination for both the stars of “Judas and the Black Messiah” in this category, part of me wonders if vote splitting could be a problem.

I still think Kaluuya will win for his electric performance as Fred Hampton. However, if that doesn’t happen and vote-splitting does occur, a Paul Raci surprise would be one of the greatest Oscar moments of all time for me.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”) WINNER
Yuh-jung Youn (“Minari”)
Olivia Colman (“The Father”)
Maria Bakalova (‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”)

I was certain Bakalova would be snubbed by AMPAS, absolutely certain. I’m so glad to have been wrong. This is fantastic news. I’m still not sure who will win at this point, but this is looking close to my predictions.

I’d thought Youn at the start of last year and was unsure if this recent surge of support for Minari would take her over the line. I am very pleased to say it has. However, I am unsure if it will translate to a win. In the end, the only one from my most recent predicted five to miss was Helena Zengel for “News of the World”, which I tipped to overperform as it screams AMPAS “dad movie” like Ford v Ferrari.

I still don’t think a winner can easily be called here. Bakalova has precursors and a screenplay nom behind her. Close has precursors in a poorly-reviewed film with no other above the line nominations.

Colman has precursors, is a previous winner and is in a screenplay and picture nominee. Seyfried has precursors in the night’s most-nominated film, including picture and director, and is playing a screen icon. Youn has some precursor support in a picture, director and screenplay nominee.

I genuinely think this category could go in any direction. I don’t think there’s an outright frontrunner, and I still think Close could somehow win despite the hurdles because they seem to love nominating her but never having her win. Maybe it’s finally time?

It’s an exciting race in which I think any of these women would be a deserving winner. But there’s part of me that would love Seyfried to win because there’s a 30 per cent chance it’s already raining (if you get it, you get it).

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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Soul” (Pixar) WINNER
“Wolfwalkers” (Apple TV Plus/GKIDS)
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” (Netflix)
“Onward” (Pixar)
“Over the Moon” (Netflix)

I haven’t seen all of these, but glad to see the team at Aardman are still going strong. Soul should win this quite easily, because it was a great film, but it also has Disney money and Pixar prestige behind it.

“Wolfwalkers” is probably great because it’s the same team that’s behind “The Secret of Kells”, but I’ve not seen it so can’t really say. I have no strong feelings about this category, but I’m very glad “The Croods 2” missed. I don’t have a horse in this race, but I will say this: “Soul” was the only film to give me a complete existential crisis last year. So make of that what you will.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao WINNER
“The Father,” Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Nina Pedrad
“One Night in Miami,” Kemp Powers
“The White Tiger,” Ramin Bahrani

Logically, it makes sense for “Nomadland” to pull out a win here. I think it would be quite a deserving win, too. However, “Nomadland” is not an incredibly showy script, which is part of the reason the film works so well. But I almost think that could weigh against it when it comes to voting.

In that case, I could see “The Father” or “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” eking out a win based on pure passion behind those scripts. I didn’t see “The White Tiger” nomination coming at all, and I’d long been predicting “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” would make it here despite my overall dislike of the film. I love a good curveball.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Hampton and Zeller ended up with the prize, though, because there’s the European and British voting bloc behind them as well as precursors. If Borat gets up, it would be inspired, but I think voters will either seek to award the film in Best Supporting Actress or here, not both.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Aaron Sorkin WINNER
“Promising Young Woman,” Emerald Fennell
“Sound of Metal.” Screenplay by Darius Marder, Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance
“Minari,” Lee Isaac Chung
“Judas and the Black Messiah.” Screenplay by Will Berson, Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas

I’ve been tipping Sorkin to win this since 2019, because it’s the kind of thing the AMPAS eats right up. I think, potentially, “Promising Young Woman” could be a massive spoiler, but Sorkin’s win feels relatively safe after the Globes as well as hitting other major precursors like AACTA, BAFTA, CCA and WGA.

If, somehow, Sorkin doesn’t win, it will go to either “Promising Young Woman” or “Minari”, maybe “Sound of Metal”. “Minari” and “Promising Young Woman” are Best Picture and Best Director nominees, and my bet would be “Promising Young Woman” after Fennell hit AACTA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes and WGA among others.

“Judas and the Black Messiah” is a surprise. I thought “Mank” would get in for sure despite my not liking its script at all. “Judas and the Black Messiah” isn’t a very strong script, and definitely could have used some tightening and clarity, but I’d gladly see it nominated here over Jack Fincher’s misguided magnum opus, which was inexorably dull.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Io Sì (Seen),” (“The Life Ahead”). Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini WINNER
“Húsavík,” (“Eurovision Song Contest”). Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
“Fight for You,” (“Judas and the Black Messiah”). Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
“Hear My Voice,” (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”). Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
“Speak Now,” (“One Night in Miami”). Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

I literally have no idea who will win here. I’m pulling for “Húsavik” given my undying love for “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”, but given it didn’t make some other precursors, at this point I would say its winning is very unlikely. But I’m still hoping.

I think Io Sì from “The Life Ahead” will probably win given its Globe victory. And if it does, I hope I can stop seeing Diane Warren pop up at the Oscars for mediocre songs and see her not win, just to come back with five more the following year so she can finally win after 12 nominations.

I’ve had enough. Just give Warren the damn thing so we can stop seeing her variations on a motivational fight song. But also, I only want to hear “Jaja Ding Dong”.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Soul,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste WINNER
“News of the World,” James Newton Howard
“Mank,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
“Da 5 Bloods,” Terence Blanchard
“Minari,” Emile Mosseri

I really thought “Tenet” would get a nomination here, but I guess the poorly-mixed sound really ruined Ludwig Göransson’s chances. “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, which I’d also tipped, also missed. But this is very close to what I’d been predicting for months.

Overall, I think Soul will take out score with music being such a central component of its plot. It was also just a great score that managed to balance the jazz scenes in the film perfectly.

That being said, I’d not be surprised if Newton Howard won, because the AMPAS loves him, as do I. He’s been nominated nine times but never won, and now could be the perfect time to award him. Terence Blanchard is a nice surprise, too, as I think the score was an integral part of why “Da 5 Bloods” worked so well, but at the end of the day the win is going to be between “Soul”, “News of the World” and “Mank”. “Soul”, to me, is a clear frontrunner.

BEST SOUND
“Sound of Metal,” Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh WINNER
“Soul,” Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
“Mank,” Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
“Greyhound,” Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
“News of the World,” Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett

Sound is finally one category, which means that we no longer have the same film winning twice for almost the same thing. Also, I never really understood the difference between the two categories, so it makes my life easier.

“Nomadland” not getting a nomination here is baffling to me, as sound was an integral part of the landscape that made Fran’s life in the film and helped illustrate the landscapes they were shooting. I thought it was a lock for the nomination. It’s a shame Mike Wolf Snyder’s last work (not in post-production) won’t be awarded.

“Greyhound” is a real surprise. Not once did I predict it. And especially not after it went straight to Apple TV in the middle of the pandemic.

Every other film in this category was an easy call. “Sound of Metal” will win, as sound is a vital component of the plot and storytelling. If it doesn’t win, I’ll eat my own sock. This would be the most deserving winner in quite some time. And if it doesn’t, I’m going to be absolutely furious. If anyone’s a spoiler here, it’ll be “Soul”, but surely not.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Emma,” Alexandra Byrne WINNER
“Mank,” Trish Summerville
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Ann Roth
“Mulan,” Bina Daigeler
“Pinocchio,” Massimo Cantini Parrini

I’m not going to pretend I know enough about this category to say I called it, but I had a feeling “Emma”, “Mank” and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” would all be safely in here. I was hoping for a surprise nomination for “Promising Young Woman” given costumes are an important part of the narrative, but it was always going to be a long shot.

I can see Byrne taking the win for “Emma” easily here. It’s a period piece that was very much style over substance, an easy win. Byrne has now been nominated six times but only won once. I can see them rewarding her for this. I can only see “Emma” losing to “Mank”, but who knows, maybe Mank’s overall strength with nominations and Netflix’s endless pockets will prevail.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Nomadland,” Joshua James Richards WINNER
“Mank,” Erik Messerschmidt
“Judas and the Black Messiah,” Sean Bobbitt
“News of the World,” Dariusz Wolski
“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Phedon Papamichael

Another category where I had been tipping four of the five for a number of months. The only miss I had was Hoyte van Hoytema making it in for “Tenet” over Papamichael for “The Trial of the Chicago 7”.

This should be a landslide victory for Richards. “Nomadland” is the most beautifully-shot film of the season. The landscapes are another character in the story, and if the Oscar goes to anyone else, I will be flipping tables furious.

Mank’s over-performance in nominations could translate to a win here, but overall, I don’t think it should win. It’s a film entirely on digital that’s been shot in black and white but then made to look as if it’s shot on black and white film stock with fake cue marks dispersed throughout. It looked too glossy and fake and if it somehow wins instead … yeah, not happy, Jan.

BEST FILM EDITING
“Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao WINNER
“Sound of Metal,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
“Promising Young Woman,” Frédéric Thoraval
“The Father,” Yorgos Lamprinos
“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Alan Baumgarten

The nominations here are not surprising, they closely resemble the ACE Eddie Awards (American Cinema Editors). Again, in my opinion, this is Chloé Zhao’s to lose. I don’t think it’s as cut and dry as some of the other categories where there is a clear frontrunner. But given “Nomadland” is considered the frontrunner of the entire season, it would make sense for Zhao to win. It would also be extremely deserving.

Then again, I think “Promising Young Woman” and “Sound of Metal” could be spoilers here, most likely “Sound of Metal”, which has scored a Best Editing win at CCA and the Satellite Awards, as well as hitting a lot of the same precursors as “Nomadland”. I would be happy with either outcome.

Even “The Father” could pull a surprise win out of the bag. I’ve long heard how the editing is what makes “The Father”, so I’m up for an upset to keep it spicy.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson WINNER
“Pinocchio,” Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti
“Hillbilly Elegy,” Eryn Krueger Mekash, Patricia Dehaney, Matthew Mungle
“Mank,” Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams, Colleen LaBaff
“Emma,” Marese Langan, Laura Allen, Claudia Stolze

This is the first category where I got five out of five correct. It’s the small victories, you know? A couple of weeks ago, I was sure Ma Rainey would run away with the win, but given its underperformance in other categories, I’m not sure it’s so safe anymore.

Perhaps “Pinocchio” will be the major spoiler given the intricate makeup work required for the film. Or perhaps Netflix’s other nominations here in “Hillbilly Elegy” and “Mank” will spoil. This is no longer cut and dried.

At this stage, I’d think “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” will still win, but “Pinocchio” will perhaps cut in for the steal. If the broader AMPAS didn’t like Ma Rainey, they may not vote for it anywhere but Actor.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Mank,” Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale WINNER
“News of the World,” Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
“The Father,” Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
“Tenet,” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton

Look, I’m not the kind of person who usually gets fired up about Production Design nominees, given I am very aware of the work that goes into every set. However, Ma Rainey making it in here for what is essentially a two-room play with one half set in a basement is really fucking trying it on.

It’s not bad production design, but when you compare it to the other contenders who have been snubbed (“Emma”), it’s really quite egregious.

The other four nominees were a given. I’ve been predicting them for months. At this point, I think it will probably go to “Mank” for the recreations of 1930s Hollywood. In an ideal world, I think it would go to “The Father”, as I’ve heard the production design is essential to the plot and is key to making the film work (I’ve not seen it yet, damn Australian release dates).

I’d be OK with any of these winning over “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”. And on the off-chance that Ma Rainey does win, you’ll find me screaming into the abyss on the April 26.