Brisbane’s Lachie Neale shows the Giants a clean pair of heels during the Lions’ round 16 win over GWS. Photo: GETTY IMAGES

FIRST SEMI-FINAL
GEELONG v WEST COAST (MCG, Friday 7.50pm local time)

All of the build-up and anticipation to this huge clash has been largely overshadowed in the past 24 hours by an ASADA bombshell which has led to the sensational provisional suspension of star West Coast forward Willie Rioli.

Rioli has been accused of tampering with a urine sample on August 20 and is now staring down the barrel of a potential four-year suspension. His finals series is likely over.

To say that’s a big distraction for the Eagles on the eve of a cut-throat final would be an understatement, especially considering how talented and important Rioli is to the make-up of their side.

But the show must go on and the speedy Jack Petruccelle takes Rioli’s place, while the Cats have realised the errors of their ways last week by recalling Rhys Stanley, who was controversially dropped an hour or so before the Cats’ qualifying final against Collingwood, which they lost by 10 points.

Cam Guthrie joins Stanley in the side at the expense of injured duo Mitch Duncan (knee) and Gary Rohan (knee).

Assuming Stanley isn’t a late withdrawal for the second week in a row, he will have a huge role to play with West Coast star ruckman Nic Naitanui in spectacular form.

The Cats lost the game in the first half last week, their hesitant start to the game backfiring badly as the rampaging, risk-taking and carefree Magpies overwhelmed them by kicking seven of the first eight goals.

Geelong forward Tom Hawkins admitted on Melbourne radio on Thursday that his side needed to play with the same kind of freedom that Collingwood did if they’re any chance of avoiding becoming the first top side to bomb out of a finals series in straight sets since North Melbourne in 1983.

This match will produce a fascinating battle between two of the best defensive units in the competition. Whichever side is able to enter their forward 50 with more care will go a long way to winning the game, because as both back sixes have proven throughout the year, if you mindlessly bomb it long to them, you are asking for trouble.

However, one area which might tip the contest in West Coast’s favour is the fact that during the home-and-away season, the Eagles were ranked second on the differentials for scores from stoppages, while the Cats were fourth last for percentage of clearances from ball-ups.

In the first 14 years of the current top-eight system, only two sides crashed out of the finals in straight sets. But as the competition has become tighter in the last five seasons, and probably with the aid of the pre-finals bye, five teams have suffered that fate – in other words one in two losing qualifying finalists in that period haven’t made amends the next week.

And while the Rioli scandal could have the potential to be traumatic enough to derail the Eagles’ focus, West Coast’s recent record at the MCG is brilliant, five wins from its last six matches there, their only loss a one-goal thriller against Richmond a month ago.

The Eagles appear to be too strong for the Cats and will ensure Geelong’s recent finals record will reach crisis levels given they’ve already lost 10 of their last 13 finals matches.

RONNY’S TIP: West Coast by 13 points.
ROCO’S TIP: West Coast by 12 points.

SECOND SEMI-FINAL
BRISBANE v GWS (Gabba, Saturday 7.25pm local time)

This contest looms as an absolute cracker as well.

As funny as it sounds, despite losing to Richmond by eight goals last week, Brisbane actually had some serious chances to win the game in the first half.

The Lions had 14 scoring shots to 10 at half-time, yet horrendous kicking for goal saw them trailing by 11 points at the major break. At that stage, Brisbane was also dominating the disposals 174-140, marks 48-28, inside 50s 33-19 and contested possessions 83-66, while also leading the clearances 20-16. They would go on to win all of those key statistics.

So if the Lions can start the game in similar fashion, but on this occasion make the most of their chances, they should be fine. You’d also expect far fewer finals nerves this time around for the young Brisbane team given the Tigers gave them a fair idea last week of what finals footy is all about.

Don’t forget, also, that their Gabba home has been a fortress for most of the season with 10 wins from 12 games there.

But while Brisbane should be able to avoid a straight-sets exit, the Lions are not going to be handed victory on a silver platter – especially if Greater Western Sydney’s win last week is anything to go by.

The Giants were back to their ruthless best in their elimination final smashing of the Bulldogs, and they produced arguably the meanest performance of their eight-year history.

Quite simply, the Dogs were beaten up both out on the ground and on the scoreboard. It must be said, though, that Toby Greene is probably fortunate to be playing given his unsavoury altercation with Marcus Bontempelli.

For the second week in a row, GWS will field close to their best side of 2019, so the Lions must brace themselves for a physical onslaught. But unfortunately for veteran Brett Deledio (calf), his career appears to be over and he has been replaced by Adam Tomlinson.

The Lions, meanwhile, have suffered a big blow, too, with enforcer Mitch Robinson (hamstring), who would have been so important in a physical contest like this, making way for Nick Robertson, who comes in for his first game since round 12 and just his fifth game of 2019.

The Giants are a formidable opponent, but it would take a massive effort to not only hand the Lions their second loss in a row at the Gabba, but also their third loss in a row for the first time this season.

During the home-and-away season, Brisbane had the No.1 attack, while GWS was ranked 12th for inside 50 differentials. If a similar trend occurs on Saturday night, and the Lions fix up their goalkicking radar, they should be able to progress to their first preliminary final since 2004.

RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 21 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Brisbane by 16 points.

RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 127
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 133