Two of the keys to the grand final, Melbourne’s Christian Petracca and the Bulldogs’ Marcus Bontempelli. Photo: AFL MEDIA

2021 AFL GRAND FINAL
MELBOURNE v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Optus Stadium, Saturday 5.15pm local time)

After 206 games, quite a bit of uncertainty along the way, including this week with an appallingly-timed COVID scare in the seemingly impregnable state of Western Australia, we have finally arrived at the 2021 AFL grand final.

And for the second year in a row, the premiership decider will be held outside Victoria due to that state’s protracted lockdown. It means that the MCG won’t host the biggest game of the year in consecutive years for the first time since World War II.

It’s another huge kick in the guts for Melburnians, especially heartland supporters of the Demons and Bulldogs, but on the positive side, the match promises to be an all-time classic – a far cry from what was served up during the preliminary final weekend.

Saturday’s competing teams were the reason the grand final qualifiers were such lopsided affairs, with Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs obliterating both Geelong and Port Adelaide respectively to charge into the last Saturday in September.

If there were any doubts as to whether the two best teams would ultimately qualify for the grand final, they were surely dispelled a fortnight ago.

You just have to look at the numbers over the course of the year.

The Demons won their first nine games of the season for the first time since 1956, and spent the entire year in the top four, including 13 weeks on top of the ladder.

And while the Bulldogs slipped to fifth spot at the last hurdle of the home-and-away season, they spent 20 consecutive weeks in the top four, including eight on top. Luke Beveridge’s team has reminded everyone what the rule of their form is, as opposed to the exception, with three brilliant wins in the finals.

In fact, the AFL ladder was headed by either the Dees or Dogs in the final 21 rounds of the season.

Like the Bulldogs, Melbourne heads into the game in sensational form, having won its last six games.

The Demons, of course, are out to end the longest active premiership drought in the league (57 years), while the Dogs are aiming for their second flag in six years after ending their own massive barren stretch of success (62 years) back in 2016. In the context of their club’s history, their cup could runneth over should they salute again on Saturday.

On that score, one has to feel for Melbourne’s Victorian supporters who have waited so long to see the Norm Smith curse potentially broken first-hand, but will be cruelly denied the chance to do so.

The Bulldogs head into this match with the wood over the Demons, having won three of their last four encounters, but Simon Goodwin’s side will take plenty out of their round 11 meeting, which it won by 28 points at Marvel Stadium.

Meanwhile, both sides have won their last two games at Optus Stadium, so the state-of-the-art Perth venue will hold no fears for either team.

Unsurprisingly, the Bulldogs have welcomed back star defender Alex Keath and livewire forward Cody Weightman for the big clash, while backman Ryan Gardner and small forward Laitham Vandermeer were the unlucky ones to make way from the side, along with preliminary final medical sub Anthony Scott. The grand final medi-sub will almost certainly be one of those three.


Bulldog Cody Weightman, back in the line-up for the grand final, soars against the Demons in round 19. Photo: GETTY IMAGES

As for the Demons, they head into the grand final unchanged, with substitute James Jordon exiting the line-up for now. He’ll battle it out with Jake Melksham, Jayden Hunt and Kade Chandler for the 23rd spot in the side.

Like most footy games, this one looks set to be won and lost in the middle of the ground, and that truism becomes even more apparent when you look at the sheer quality of on-ballers from either side.

Melbourne has star ruckman Max Gawn along with Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Jack Viney and James Harmes, while the Bulldogs boast Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Bailey Smith, Tom Liberatore, Lachie Hunter, Adam Treloar and Josh Dunkley.

And while the Bulldogs appear to bat a little bit deeper, don’t be fooled, because the Demons’ unit is A-grade.

The Bulldogs on-ball brigade is probably the only one in the competition that can match it with the Demons, but it’s going to take everything they’ve got because Melbourne’s midfield dismissed with disdain the challenge laid out before them by the Lions and the Cats in their first two finals.

Against Brisbane, Melbourne finished with 23 more inside 50s and against Geelong, Goodwin’s team ended up with 13 more forward entries.

That’s why so much responsibility will fall on the shoulders of Bulldogs veteran ruckman Stefan Martin, up against his great mate Gawn.

He’s only played twice since round seven, but this is why the Dogs recruited Martin at the end of last year – to help them win a flag. And despite a 14-week layoff heading into their preliminary final, the former Lion did a very good job on Scott Lycett, keeping the potentially influential Power ruckman quiet.

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Gawn certainly looms large over this contest, especially after his jaw-dropping five-goal performance against the Cats. He has been in incredible form. Not only is the Melbourne captain’s endurance superior to that of Martin’s, but his tap work also has Tim English’s measure. Gawn’s ability to run his opponents ragged has been a hallmark of his game, and if the Dogs can’t quell his influence, that could almost be the game right there.

And does Luke Beveridge give Dunkley the job on Oliver? He’s applied some very effective tags on Essendon’s Darcy Parish, Brisbane’s Lachie Neale and Port Adelaide’s Ollie Wines so far in this finals series, so it wouldn’t surprise to see him assigned with another negating role on arguably the opposition’s most destructive midfielder.

Melbourne has blown away both opponents in the first half in this finals series, with the margin out to five goals after two quarters on both occasions. And a major reason behind that has been its ability to score goals easily from stoppages on the back of midfield dominance.

But it’s not as if the Demons won’t have their work cut out themselves around the ball. Bulldogs young gun Bailey Smith is growing in stature before our eyes with each passing final, and could very well be leading the Gary Ayres Medal with one game to go.

Liberatore again showed how dangerous he can be last time out against the Power when left to his own devices, recording the first two clearances inside a minute and setting up the first goal for Smith to get the Dogs off to a flyer and setting the tone for the remainder of the game.

Does Goodwin send Harmes to Liberatore? It worked like a charm the first time these two sides met this year, and when the Dees opted against a hard tag on Liberatore in round 19, it backfired, with the Dogs emerging victorious.

Macrae has set the all-time record for most disposals in a season and how can you forget about Bontempelli? The Bulldog captain was sensational against the Power and could have a huge say on proceedings.

The battles at either end of the park will also be pivotal.

Melbourne’s dream defensive duo Steven May and Jake Lever have hardly put a foot wrong this year, and, along with ‘third banana’ Harrison Petty, will once again form a difficult wall to penetrate.

But the Dogs unearthed an unlikely disrupter a fortnight ago in the form of Josh Schache, who did a superb job at unsettling Port’s supreme All-Australian interceptor Aliir Aliir. The former Lion might just find himself playing a similar role on someone like Lever.

May and Petty will most likely line up on Aaron Naughton and English respectively. Naughton has shown time and time again how dominant he can be thanks largely to his pack marking, but too often he has let himself down with his goalkicking, and he needs to arrest that part of his game to give his side the best chance of winning.


Steven May battles Aaron Naughton in round 19. The pair are likely to line up on each other again. Photo: GETTY IMAGES

The most effective way to expose Melbourne’s defence is with fast ball movement and quick handball, as opposed to long, predictable kicks that May and Lever will in all likelihood gobble up. Easier said than done, obviously, but that will give the Dogs the best shot of unsettling the Dees backline.

Underscoring how hard the job will be for the Bulldogs to kick a winning score is the fact that the Dees concede a score just 35 per cent of the time when the opposition goes inside 50 – which is the best ever figure since records began – and they’re also the No.1 ranked defence in the AFL this season.

This is why Bulldog small forwards Mitch Hannan and Weightman need to stand up, take their chances when they present themselves and bob up with at least a couple of goals each.

Down the other end of the ground, the Bulldogs defence has been sturdy this finals series, with the likes of Keath, Easton Wood, Roarke Smith and Gardner not losing too many one-one-contests.

Keath, who has dominated key forwards for most of the year, should get the job on the rejuvenated Ben Brown.

As brilliant and damaging as Caleb Daniel and Bailey Dale have been for the Dogs off half-back, they do have a propensity for having goals kicked on them, and that is great news for the likes of Kysaiah Pickett, Alex Neal-Bullen and Charlie Spargo, who has recovered from an ankle scare.

Those three Melbourne smalls have been instrumental not only with their forward pressure, but their ability to give their side a second chance at goal. And they are also very capable at hitting the scoreboard themselves at crucial times.

The week off before the grand final is also an interesting aspect, and it might slightly favour the Bulldogs, who probably needed a rest more given they’ve played interstate three games in a row, having flown from Melbourne to Tasmania to Brisbane to Perth to Adelaide and back to Perth in the process.

By the time of the first bounce, Melbourne will have played just one game in the space of 28 days – hardly ideal for this time of year.

And the Dogs will definitely take some confidence from the fact that Martin, Treloar, Dunkley and Wood didn’t play the last time these two sides met, although Josh Bruce is a massive omission from that clash.

But Melbourne just seems like a slightly more complete team than the Bulldogs. The Demons’ pressure against Geelong was absolutely ferocious, and hard to ignore.

If they can prevent the Bulldogs from getting the jump on them, as Beveridge’s team did against Port Adelaide, then Melbourne should be too good in the end and a mighty curse that has plagued the club for nearly six decades will be lifted.

RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 16 points.
Norm Smith Medal: Clayton Oliver.

ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 2 points.
Norm Smith Medal: Christian Petracca

RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 130
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 132