Josh Kennedy celebrates one of his seven goals against Collingwood last meeting with the Pies. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL
PORT ADELAIDE v GEELONG (Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7.10pm local time)
There was a time this year when the prospect of a finals series being staged seemed extremely unlikely, but somehow the AFL has managed to get a regular season away and here we are at the pointy end.
It’s been a truly tremendous achievement. And what a way to kick things off with Port Adelaide, whose playing group has been one of the few to benefit from living in their own homes for majority of the pandemic, up against the Cats.
It’s been a remarkable turnaround from the Power this year, which, after missing the finals in 2019, became the first team in 20 years to sit on top of the ladder all season. Meanwhile, Geelong’s incredible inter-generational run of consistency has continued with an astonishing 12th top-four finish in 17 seasons.
And if Port Adelaide wants to advance to a preliminary final this week, it will have to overcome a team which systematically dismantled it a mere seven weeks ago. Geelong produced one of the most dominant performances of the year in round 12 when it smashed the Power by 10 goals.
Cats spearhead Tom Hawkins produced arguably the best individual performance of the season during that game, making light work of opponents Tom Clurey and Tom Jonas to boot six goals.
It goes without saying that pair will have to drastically change their approach to stopping Hawkins, who was given too much space and afforded too many one-on-ones last time.
At the other end of the ground, the brilliant Geelong backline smothered Charlie Dixon magnificently. If Hawkins gets a similar volume of supply this time around, the Cats will be hard to stop.
This will be a battle between two of the best midfields in the competition, and while the venue change to Adelaide Oval from Metricon Stadium last time they met will probably ensure a closer result, the seasoned Cats have a steely resolve about them after almost a decade full of finals near misses.
RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 17 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 6 points.
SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL
BRISBANE v RICHMOND (Gabba, Friday 7.50pm local time)
The Lions might not ever get a better chance to win a premiership than this year. They’ve got two home finals guaranteed, and the grand final, if they can make it that far, is also being staged in Brisbane.
But first up, they must conquer their biggest hoodoo – the Tigers. And this match could make or break Brisbane’s tilt at a flag.
Richmond’s psychological stranglehold on the Lions is quite extraordinary. The Tigers have won their last 15 games against Brisbane, a streak that pre-dates Damien Hardwick’s 11-season tenure as coach, and are also undefeated in Queensland for the past six years, having won their last 15 in the Sunshine State.
Even Brisbane’s rapid improvement in the past two seasons has done little to impact the domination, with Richmond winning their last three encounters by an average of 38 points.
There’s a Groundhog Day feel to this game with these teams meeting each other at the same stage of the season as last year, and at the same ground.
On that occasion, the Dustin Martin-inspired Tigers dismissed Brisbane by 47 points as they surged towards another premiership, while Chris Fagan’s men exited in straight sets the following week.
The Lions’ goalkicking has been a huge talking point all season, but they have really saved their worst for Hardwick’s side, kicking a combined 12.34 in their past two meetings, with a host of gettable shots making up that behind tally.
Brisbane’s game plan is clearly good enough to create sufficient scoring shots to beat Richmond, but let’s face it, it has choked spectacularly against its bogey side.
The Lions have no choice but to overcome that huge mental hurdle in front of the sticks or they’ll be consigned to yet another defeat to the Tigers and face the reality of another finals series, and impressive season, left hanging by a thread.
Brisbane will be boosted by the returns of Harris Andrews (hamstring) and Jarrod Berry (shoulder), as well as the absence of Richmond star forward Tom Lynch (hamstring).
But time and time again, the Tigers have proven themselves to be the best system-over-personnel side in the AFL, and with Dion Prestia (ankle) and Shai Bolton (calf) both expected to be available, their remarkable winning streak against Brisbane should continue.
RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 22 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 16 points.
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SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL
ST KILDA v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Gabba, Saturday 4.40pm local time)
Funnily enough, the match between sixth and seventh has ended up being arguably the hardest game to tip of the weekend.
The Saints head into their first finals campaign in nine years on the back of some scratchy form, having only won two of their last five games, while the Doggies, with five wins from their last six, are riding a wave of momentum similar to the one that preceded their 2019 finals campaign when they won seven of their last nine home-and-away games.
And of course, finishing seventh is something that will be looked at fondly by the Bulldogs faithful given what their side achieved from that position in 2016.
However, the knock on the Doggies is their woeful 1-6 record against top-eight sides (and that one win was by just two points against an injury-hit West Coast). Conversely, the Saints are 3-4 against fellow finalists.
This promises to be a fascinating contest between two of the quickest teams in the AFL, who both possess stacked midfields.
The ruck situation is an interesting one, because at the stoppages, you would expect St Kilda pair Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall to have the upper hand against Bulldogs youngster Tim English, but on the spread, English is capable of evening things up, especially against Ryder.
Aaron Naughton (cheekbone) and Mitch Wallis (shoulder) being cleared to play is massive for the Dogs, because their forward line would have looked very weak without them, and the availability of Matt Suckling (hamstring) is a further boost.
Zak Jones (hamstring) and Jack Lonie (knee) should be right for the Saints, but the loss of Josh Battle (foot) is a big one.
The Bulldogs have won the uncontested possession count by 16.9 per game in 2020 (ranked fourth), while the Saints have lost it by 7.1 per game (ranked 11th). If Luke Beveridge’s side is given too much leeway again, St Kilda’s return to the finals cauldron will be short-lived.
RONNY’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 10 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 22 points.
FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL
WEST COAST v COLLINGWOOD (Optus Stadium, Saturday 6.10pm local time)
Arguably the most epic finals rivalry of the AFL era resumes on Saturday night, but unfortunately it’s hard to envisage a contest that will emulate either of the 1990 or 2007 draws, the thrilling 1994 qualifying final, or the legendary 2018 grand final.
Collingwood is really up against it, having had to endure a seven-day “hard quarantine” upon arriving in Perth and struggling to recapture its best form since defeating Geelong way back in round seven.
The injury-hit Eagles haven’t exactly been in sparkling recent form, either, but they are a very different team at their home ground, having won their last eight games there, including all seven this year.
When these two sides met there in round eight, the Eagles destroyed Collingwood by 11 goals. Josh Kennedy booted seven and their forward line made the Pies’ backline look silly.
West Coast has benefitted greatly from the pre-finals bye with Jeremy McGovern (hamstring), Kennedy (ankle), Jamie Cripps (birth of child), Jack Redden (thumb), Mark Hutchings (hamstring) and Lewis Jetta (calf) all expected to be available.
If All-Australian ruckman Nic Naitanui grabs a hold of the out-of-sorts Brodie Grundy, this contest will be over in quick time.
RONNY’S TIP: West Coast by 34 points.
ROCO’S TIP: West Coast by 22 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 104
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 110
