North Melbourne superstar Jasmine Garner has become arguably the best player in the AFLW. Photo: Getty Images

Inflation, it seems, is not just present in the global economy, but also in AFLW.

Here’s how: the presence of four first-year clubs has meant the most experienced sides, and even some developing teams, have been able to inflate both their win totals and their percentages.

These inflated percentages have created gaps between the top-eight teams so that now, there’s little chance of clubs passing one another on percentage alone. Position changes are highly likely to only happen on wins and losses.

With a finals system based on the AFL model — the top-four sides having a double chance and the fifth and sixth clubs hosting elimination finals against the eighth and seventh clubs, respectfully — the most impactful matches in the final round this weekend are the Brisbane-Collingwood and North Melbourne-Richmond contests.

The results of those two matches could potentially affect the first, second, fourth and fifth spots the most. So, barring highly unlikely scenarios playing out, the top eight is set, but several clubs still have much to play for.

CARLTON (2-5-2) v WESTERN BULLDOGS (6-3) (Princes Park, Friday 6.10pm local time)
Even if the Bulldogs lose this one and the Suns win, the Doggies are so far ahead of Gold Coast on percentage it would take both Carlton belting the Bulldogs and Suns doing the same to the Giants for the Dogs to cede eighth spot and miss finals. There’s no way an Ellie Blackburn-captained side allows that to happen. She’ll have her teammates firing and while technically this is a Blues home game, the Bulldogs have had to make Princes Park their temporary home, so they’re plenty used to this ground. The lowly Blues would love to play spoilers here, but that’s highly unlikely.
GIL TIPS: WESTERN BULLDOGS

BRISBANE (8-1) v COLLINGWOOD (7-2) (Metricon Stadium, Friday 8.10pm local time)
This one’s the marquee match of the round and all signs point the Lions’ way. While the Magpies have played better than expected all year, without star midfielders Brianna Davey and Britt Bonnici, and are a flag chance, Brisbane is far stronger, having dominated the competition from the start of the season. The Lions are at home, close to full strength and fresh from belting their latest victim, the Hawks, while the Pies got embarrassed on their home deck by fellow finalist North Melbourne. Brisbane has too many weapons in its arsenal, including midfielder Ally Anderson, who is having a career year.
GIL TIPS: BRISBANE

MELBOURNE (8-1) v WEST COAST (2-7) (Casey Fields, Saturday 1.10pm local time)
It would take a massive blowout of the Eagles, but the Demons have a slim chance of overtaking Brisbane on top of the ladder. Melbourne isn’t incapable of putting up big scores, as it proved at its windy home ground last week by routing Essendon. Like the Lions, the Dees have innumerable offensive weapons — Tayla Harris, Alyssa Bannan and Olivia Purcell just to name three — and are blessed with significant depth. The Eagles have shown signs of improvement this season, but battling both strong opposition and notoriously harsh winds? That’s too big an ask for a developing side still trying to find its way.
GIL TIPS: MELBOURNE

ST KILDA (3-6) v ADELAIDE (7-2) (Moorabbin, Saturday 3.10pm local time)
The Crows last round were pushed to their very limit by the comp’s most improved — and finals-bound — club, Geelong, and are playing without their captain Chelsea Randall. Even if Adelaide wins and Melbourne loses, the Demons are far enough ahead of the Crows on percentage to retain second spot. St Kilda this season has only beaten expansion sides and with the likes of stars such as Ebony Marinoff, Anne Hatchard and Ash Woodland, the Crows are likely to quickly turn the match into a glorified training session.
GIL TIPS: ADELAIDE

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GEELONG (6-3) v SYDNEY (0-9) (Kardinia Park, Saturday 5.10pm local time)
This looms as a finals tune-up for the Cats, who’ve undergone remarkable improvement this season. As the ladder has it, North Melbourne is safe in sixth spot, ahead of Geelong in seventh, because of percentage. Despite playing a winless Swans outfit, the Cats just don’t score enough to gain the astronomic percentage boost they’d need to leapfrog the Kangaroos if they lost to Richmond. Still, the Swans will put up a fight in their last home-and-away match to avoid going winless for the season.
GIL TIPS: GEELONG

FREMANTLE (2-6-1) v HAWTHORN (3-6) (Fremantle Oval, Saturday 7.10pm local time)
Emotions may run high for the Dockers as their inaugural captain Kara Antonio is slated to return from a serious hamstring injury to run out for a farewell match alongside her wife and teammate Ebony Antonio. The Hawks’ Jess Duffin, a long-time veteran and inaugural AFLW player, is also pulling the pin on her career after this match. While each side will aim to send off their respective retiring players with a victory, odds favour the far more experienced Dockers who were beset from the start of the campaign with injuries and stars defecting to expansion clubs. Though they won’t be wooden spooners, the Dockers have freefallen down the ladder and, for the first time since 2018, won’t be finalists.
GIL TIPS: FREMANTLE

PORT ADELAIDE (1-7-1) v ESSENDON (3-6) (Alberton Oval, Sunday 1.10pm local time)
Surely, iconic Power captain Erin Phillips — a three-time premiership player with Adelaide — can’t go goalless for a season, can she? As for the Bombers, they started this campaign fast and even garnered talk in some circles about possibly being the best-ever AFLW expansion side, but by the time this round ends, that statistical distinction may go Hawthorn’s way. No matter what the result for Essendon, Maddy Prespakis has had a sensational season, as evidenced by the fact she headed into Round 9 in equal third spot in the AFL Coaches’ Association AFLW Champion Player of the Year award. Does she have one more big effort in her to carry her teammates on her back? Perhaps, but the Power will be keen to end the campaign by giving some hope to their faithful.
GIL TIPS: PORT ADELAIDE

NORTH MELBOURNE (6-3) v RICHMOND (7-2) (Arden Street, Sunday 3.10pm local time)
In one of the matches of the round, the Tigers — winners of seven on the trot — can lock in a double chance with a victory, but they face a tough test playing on the road against the Kangaroos, who last round overcame their inaccurate goalkicking and crushed the Magpies. North Melbourne has, perhaps, the competition’s best midfield and Jasmine Garner has emerged as the clear favourite to take out the league’s best-and-fairest award. But wastefulness in front of the sticks has cost the Roos a higher ladder position. Richmond, meanwhile, boasts one of the stingiest defences, conceding the third-fewest points in the comp. Up forward, Courtney Wakefield has become an incredibly valuable foil to captain Katie Brennan, and in the guts, Mon Conti continues to be a superstar. In the end, North has the slightest edge, riding its experience and playing at home.
GIL TIPS: NORTH MELBOURNE

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY (3-6) v GOLD COAST (5-4) (Henson Park, Sunday 5.10pm local time)
The Suns have continued improving this season but are once again likely to fall short of making the finals. Gold Coast doesn’t have the percentage it needs to crack the top eight, even with a healthy boost over the Giants, who’ve scored the league’s fourth-fewest points. Still, finishing with a positive win-loss record would provide young jet Charlie Rowbottom and company a solid building block for next season.
GIL TIPS: GOLD COAST