Darcy Byrne-Jones (33) kicks the winning goal for Port Adelaide against Hawthorn in Round 10, stunning Blake Hardwick (left) and Jarman Impey (right). Photo: AFL MEDIA

SECOND SEMI-FINAL
PORT ADELAIDE v HAWTHORN (Adelaide Oval, Friday 7:10pm)
It is Groundhog Day for Port Adelaide. This really is happening. Once again, a finals series that promised so much has been railroaded by yet another disastrous performance.

But as underwhelming as the Power have been in September in recent seasons under beleaguered coach Ken Hinkley, their most recent effort against Geelong took the cake – and that’s saying something.

The Cats kicked 16 of the last 18 goals to obliterate Port Adelaide by 84 points as the Power astonishingly gave up in front of their home crowd.

Make no mistake, the Cats are good, but they’re not that good. That performance said more about the Power than it did about Geelong, which was absolutely ruthless in its execution.

Hinkley’s men are no strangers to losing big finals at home. After all, they’ve now done so in their last three Adelaide Oval finals, but to embarrass themselves so badly on such a grand scale possibly even trumped their 71-point preliminary final loss to the Western Bulldogs in 2021.

Overall, it was their equal-biggest defeat at their home ground (what a time to do it) and it was the heaviest loss to be suffered by a second-placed team in the first week of the finals in the current top-eight system, smashing the previous record of 51 points held by Geelong (against Richmond in 2017).

How does Port Adelaide recover from this? It now boasts a 2-6 record in its last eight finals, with five of those defeats occurring at home. There is no doubt that win-loss is playing havoc with the Power mentally and they looked like a team that was spooked against Geelong.

We often hear that you should never get sucked into writing off the first-week losers in the second week of finals, but as time has gone on, that theory has lost more and more credibility.

In the first 14 years of the current top-eight system, only two teams were knocked out in straight sets, yet in the last decade, a whopping 10 teams have suffered that fate, and the Power look ripe to become team No.11.

Incidentally, if Port Adelaide does get rolled, it will create an unwanted slice of history as the first team to exit the finals in straight sets three times since the revamped top-eight system was introduced.

And the Power are going to find it awfully tough to avoid that fate because they are coming up against arguably the most in-form team in the AFL.

What Hawthorn has managed to do since starting the year 0-5 has been nothing short of exceptional.

The Hawks have now won 15 of their 19 games to charge into the top six. Many thought their charmed run would come to an end last week against the equally red-hot Bulldogs, but they dismissed that challenge with disdain to steamroll Luke Beveridge’s men after quarter-time and career towards a 37-point win.

Hawthorn’s youngsters are capturing the imagination of the footy world. They have ensured that their team is propelled by speed, skill, confidence, flair and dare and it’s proving to be an unstoppable formula. They are absolutely relentless as evidenced by their average winning margin of 72 points in their last six victories.

Jai Newcombe is in sensational form in the middle, Massimo D’Ambrosio continues to go from strength to strength on the wing, Lloyd Meek has been a revelation in the ruck and their forward line is full of threats such as Nick Watson, Jack Ginnivan, Calsher Dear and Connor Maconald.

But perhaps their all-ground defence is their most impressive trait. One of the big fears that many pundits had for the Hawks last week was the ability of their undersized backline to negate the Bulldogs big trio of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy.

Yet Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell had his troops so well-drilled that they only allowed the ball to enter the Dogs’ forward 50 an incredible 39 times, and when it did get near their attacking zone, Hawthorn’s James Sicily and Jack Scrimshaw were sensational in repelling the Bulldogs.

Those same doubts will be raised again this week without Sam Frost (foot) out for the rest of the finals after a career-best year but it promises to be a big opportunity to nine-gamer Jai Serong who comes in for his first match since Round 10.

How do the Power recover from last week and give themselves the best chance of winning? Well, for starters, their vaunted midfield unit must respond.

Port Adelaide’s on-ball brigade is undoubtedly its biggest strength, but it was absolutely dismantled by Geelong last week. Hinkley might want to start Jason Horne-Francis on the ground this week and captain Connor Rozee must dig deep and lift because his last couple of games have been ordinary.

Zak Butters has been named and if he does line up, after being subbed out last week with rib soreness, he has to play as if he is 100 per cent fit. He cannot use the injury as an excuse for a sub-par performance. This is do-or-die football with the coach’s job likely on the line and the club’s finals reputation at stake.

The biggest question mark over the Power has been whether or not their forward line and/or backline can stand up to the test of finals footy, and last week we got a resounding answer on both fronts.

It’s stunning to see Charlie Dixon retain his place in the side after his awful performance last week, but with Todd Marshall back in, along with Josh Sinn, at the expense of Ryan Burton (calf) and Jed McEntee (dropped), it looks as though Hinkley is going to try and give Dixon as much support as possible up forward.

But it will likely be academic because Hawthorn look set to make it through to a preliminary final against Sydney next week.
RONNY’S TIP: Hawthorn by 27 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Hawthorn by 6 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Hawthorn by 27 points.

PLEASE HELP US CONTINUE TO THRIVE BY BECOMING AN OFFICIAL FOOTYOLOGY PATRON. JUST CLICK THIS LINK.

FIRST SEMI-FINAL
GWS v BRISBANE (Giants Stadium, Saturday 7:30pm)
While the Power look like sitting ducks, the same cannot be said for the other loser from last week, Greater Western Sydney, which found itself on the wrong end of one of the great modern day finals.

The Giants looked as though they had booked a home preliminary final when they led crosstown rival Sydney by 28 points in their qualifying final clash at the SCG, but, inspired by superstar Isaac Heeney, the Swans booted seven of the last nine goals to clinch an epic six-point win.

Unfortunately for GWS, that means its home final got brought forward a week.

But the good news for the Giants is that they are in very good shape and are well-placed to make it through to the final four. Let’s not forget, they only recently completed a seven-game winning streak.

The return of Toby Bedford (calf) is massive and just makes the GWS line-up look even more potent than it is.

In the middle of the ground, Tom Green, Josh Kelly, Finn Callaghan and Callan Ward were great last week, defensive twin towers Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley were brilliant and up forward Coleman Medal winner Jesse Hogan provided a huge target again while his protege Aaron Cadman appears to be arriving as a footballer in real time.

If captain Toby Greene can just somehow snap out of his form funk, that would just about be enough to tip the Giants over the line.

But they’re certainly not going to have it all their own way. The Lions can definitely be flaky, as evidenced by the manner in which they cost themselves a top-four spot late in the season, and probably have struggled to realise their full potential as a team, but they have some big weapons in their line-up as well.

You don’t get out to a 60-point head start in a final if you lack quality.

When you’ve got guys like Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage, Will Ashcroft and Josh Dunkley roaming around the middle of the park you’re always a chance to win. Not to mention a backline that features the evergreen Dayne Zorko, Harris Andrews, Jack Payne, Brandon Starcevich, Darcy Wilmot and Ryan Lester.

Oscar McInerney will serve as a good match-up for Kieren Briggs in the ruck as well.

Brisbane’s forward line could be so lethal, but it’s hard to have full confidence in players like Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner, Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron who really should be superstars of the competition, but have been too inconsistent as a collective in 2024, especially compared to how well they played last year.

And the way Brisbane let Carlton back in last week to lose by only 28 points was another reminder of how unreliable they can be.

GWS coach Adam Kingsley bemoaned the fact that his team only plays three quarters too often, but the Giants did that five weeks ago against this very opponent when they found themselves down by 30 points at the Gabba and still managed to win by 18.

The good news for Kingsley is that Brisbane rarely plays a four-quarter game either. The Lions’ goalkicking remains a massive issue too, with six of their last seven scores featuring more behinds than goals.

The Giants should make it through to face Geelong in the second preliminary final.
RONNY’S TIP: GWS by 21 points.
ROCO’S TIP: GWS by 12 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: GWS by 15 points.

SEASON TOTALS
ROCKET 131
RONNY 127
ROCO 127

*all times are local