Sydney superstar Isaac Heeney was irrepressible in his last outing against GWS. Can the Power stop him this week? Photo: AFL MEDIA
FIRST PRELIMINARY FINAL
SYDNEY v PORT ADELAIDE (SCG, Friday 7:40pm)
The weekend that is regarded as the best on the footy calendar by the purists is upon us.
It’s preliminary final time and four teams will be battling it out for a spot in the grand final in front of packed crowds full of loyal fans, as opposed to next week when the stadium will be filled with a decent portion of corporates and neutrals.
The first clash takes place on Friday night when the Swans and Power do battle at the SCG.
And both teams are coming off epic finals wins. Sydney made it through to the penultimate stage of the year by coming back from 28 points down to pip GWS by a goal in a qualifying final for the ages.
And last week, the Power edged past Hawthorn by three points in a classic semi-final which was decided by a marginally off-line set shot from James Sicily. The Hawks skipper would then play a big part in the fiery post-script as he found himself in a heated war of words with Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley who took a cheeky potshot at Hawthorn antagonist Jack Ginnivan.
But can the Power get themselves up yet again for another big performance after clearly putting so much emotion and energy into last week’s game, spurred on by Ginnivan’s disrespectful Instagram post?
It was a mighty effort to lift themselves off the canvas after another September humiliation against Geelong, and cut short the season of Hawthorn which was arguably the most in-form team in the competition.
It will certainly be an enormous task to repeat the dose against the minor premiers on their home ground.
But Port Adelaide will certainly take heart from its recent history against the Swans, which has seen it win their last eight meetings, and less than two months ago, the Power absolutely destroyed Sydney by 112 points.
Although the Swans seem to have overcome their massive late-season form slump to win their last four games.
Sydney has made just the one like-for-like change with Robbie Fox coming in for injured captain Callum Mills (hamstring), which means midfielder Taylor Adams gets overlooked yet again.
As for the Power, Ryan Burton and Charlie Dixon come in for Todd Marshall (concussion) and Will Lorenz. To be brutally honest, by bringing Dixon back in, the Power already look diminished, because the 34-year-old just isn’t moving like he used to, and with only 10 goals in his last 10 games, he is struggling badly to have an impact.
The key forward had three disposals in his last game, which was his lowest return in a match that he wasn’t subbed out of or wasn’t played in the shortened quarters of 2020, since his debut season 13 years ago.
If the Power are any chance of springing another finals upset, they are going to have to replicate their ferocious pressure against the Hawks which denied them the ability to use the ball as cleanly as they would’ve liked as they were deprived of adequate time and space.
Sydney’s ball movement is arguably the most electrifying in the competition when it’s on song, so stifling its creativity will be a top priority for Power coach Ken Hinkley. Part of that strategy might see tagger Willem Drew go straight to Swans star Errol Gulden who has struggled with close attention at times this year.
Port Adelaide will also need another couple of big games from their two best forwards Mitch Georgiades and Willie Rioli who were both exceptional last week against Hawthorn. That means they will obviously need regular supply from their midfield, which is a possibility given how powerful it can be with the likes of Jason Horne-Francis, Zak Butters, Ollie Wines, Connor Rozee and Travis Boak.
If ruckman Jordon Sweet can back up his super effort against the in-form Lloyd Meek in the semi-final when he comes up against one of the best rucks of the last decade in Brodie Grundy, then that’ll be a huge win for the Power as well.
This season has been one of the craziest in recent memory, so no result can ever be ruled out, and the Swans have shown on numerous occasions this year that they struggle to play four quarters. So that could give the Power a little opening to work through.
But Port Adelaide appears to be more banged up, and might’ve used up all its petrol tickets last week in that spiteful contest with the Hawks.
Sydney is coming off the week’s break, and coupled with the fact it has a team full of superstars who can flick the switch with devastating consequences, such as Isaac Heeney, who is coming off one of the great finals performances against GWS, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey and Gulden, they should be too good.
RONNY’S TIP: Sydney by 25 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Sydney by 6 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Sydney by 11 points.
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SECOND PRELIMINARY FINAL
GEELONG v BRISBANE (MCG, Saturday 5:15pm)
The Cats and Lions head into their grand final playoff full of confidence as well.
Geelong is riding high after smoking the Power by 14 goals at Adelaide Oval, while Brisbane last week completed the equal-third biggest comeback in VFL/AFL finals history when they fought back from 44 points down against the Giants late in the third quarter to pull off a five-point miracle away from home.
It truly was a performance for the ages and for that reason, the Lions will be thinking they can achieve anything, which is a great mindset to be taking into such an important game.
Brisbane is no stranger to this time of year, given this is their fourth preliminary final in five years, but neither are the Cats who are preparing for their 13th in 21 seasons in what is an extraordinarly remarkable display of longevity.
Amazingly, this is the third time in five years that these two clubs will meet each other in a preliminary final as well.
Both teams have executed brilliant recovery missions to get to this point with Geelong winning eight of its last 10 games, and the Lions losing just three of their last 17 to ensure they both timed their runs to perfection.
In fact, Brisbane’s game against GWS last week was probably a microcosm of its entire season to date. Erratic, frustrating, disappointing, yet also filled with periods of sheer brilliance and exhilaration.
And no player epitomises all of that than spearhead Joe Daniher who, like many of his teammates, shrugged of a sluggish first two or three quarters to put the cape on and produce a match-winning performance.
After starting the game 4.12, the Lions ended up 15.15 to make a dramatic recovery in front of the big sticks. But can they be trusted? Goalkicking has been a massive issue yet again for them this year, especially in the last couple of months as they have only managed to kick more goals than behinds once in their last eight matches.
It’s a massive worry, and unfortunately for Brisbane, it just isn’t getting enough out of the likes of Cam Rayner, Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey and Eric Hipwood, who all look good on paper, but have really failed to back up their excellent 2023 seasons this year.
And at the other end of the ground, the Cats are a much more dependable force to be reckoned with, especially their small forwards with Shaun Mannagh, Tyson Stengle, Gryan Miers and Brad Close combining to become arguably the pre-eminent pressure/goalkicking mosquito fleet in the league.
Each one of them was fantastic in the Cats’ dismantling of Port Adelaide a fortnight ago and they will ensure that the Brisbane backline will have its hands full. As will a guy by the name of Jeremy Cameron, who is probably the most destructive key forward in the country.
It would be surprising to see Jack Payne get the job on the mobile big man, especially after how badly he performed for three quarters on Giants forward Jesse Hogan last week, so that will probably mean that Harris Andrews will be tasked with the massive job of curbing Cameron’s influence.
The Cats forward line loves starting high up the ground and turning back around towards goal when their team wins the ball to create space and pace in the most dangerous part of the ground. So the Lions will have to be awake to that tactic if they are to triumph.
It will be interesting to see if evergreen Brisbane defender Dayne Zorko will get a tagging job on one of the Cats’ dangerous small forwards, because he will have to make someone accountable to him as well given how creative and potent he can be off the half-back line.
Another key focus for the Lions will be how they approach Geelong skipper Patrick Dangerfield who, after suffering a few soft-tissue injuries earlier in the year, has gradually built into this season and is now playing arguably his best footy of 2024.
Brisbane’s Josh Dunkley might just have to get the job on the Brownlow Medallist for periods during the game.
Make no mistake, the Lions are a huge chance in this one, even if their superstar Lachie Neale is playing hurt.
But with Tom Stewart back in the Geelong line-up, the Cats look set to feature in their third grand final in five years.
RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 7 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 28 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Geelong by 19 points.
SEASON TOTALS
ROCKET 131
RONNY 127
ROCO 127
*all times are local
