Collingwood had an easy win over Brisbane at the Gabba last year. Things will be a lot tougher this time. Photo: AFL MEDIA
HAWTHORN v ADELAIDE (Adelaide Oval, Tuesday 5.10pm local time)
With just four wins between them from a combined 26 games, it’s fair to say both of these clubs cannot wait for season 2020 to be over – especially the 0-13 Crows, who are still searching for their first win of the year, having not tasted victory in over 12 months. There were definitely some better signs from Adelaide in its last game, but despite trailing flag fancy Geelong by just nine points at three-quarter time, the Crows still ended up copping a five-goal loss. And the less said about Hawthorn’s last game, the better. After leading arch-rival Essendon by six goals at half-time, the Hawks capitulated to hand the Bombers their equal-fourth greatest comeback from the main break. But despite the horrific nature of that defeat, it still showed that Hawthorn is playing much better footy than the Crows, especially when you consider it pushed ladder-leading Port Adelaide right to the end the previous round. And with Ben Stratton, James Frawley, Shaun Burgoyne and Jarman Impey all returning, it’s hard to see Hawthorn becoming Adelaide’s first victim of the season. The Hawks also have the wood on the Crows, winning 10 of their last 11 meetings, including the last three.
RONNY’S TIP: Hawthorn by 22 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Hawthorn by 30 points.
WEST COAST v ESSENDON (Gabba, Tuesday 8.10pm local time)
At half-time of last week’s game, Essendon’s season looked over. But a miraculous fightback, spearheaded by Andrew McGrath, Zach Merrett and the returning Joe Daniher ensured that the Bombers lived to fight another day. The Dons sit half-a-game outside the top eight, and with the huge inclusions of captain Dyson Heppell, Michael Hurley and Sam Draper, they’re fielding their strongest side of the year. All of a sudden, things are looking a little bit rosier. Although it is surprising to see Daniher named after just a five-day break when you consider not only that he hadn’t played a game for 467 days, but his extensive injury history. The Essendon medical team must be supremely confident that the star forward can back up. And it’s fair to say Draper will be thrown in the deep end when he confronts one of the game’s best ruckmen in Nic Naitanui. To stay in the finals race, the Bombers have to navigate a gauntlet of some of the competition’s best teams over the final month, starting with West Coast this week. Granted, the Eagles aren’t at full strength, with no Elliot Yeo (groin), Josh Kennedy (concussion), Jamie Cripps (rested) or Jake Waterman (hand), but they are still a force to be reckoned with. It’s also true the Eagles once again didn’t look themselves away from their Optus Stadium home in losing to Richmond. Was that more to do with the quality of opposition, the return to the hub (with which they clearly struggled first time around), or a combination of both? We’ll get a much clearer understanding on Tuesday night. The Bombers could give West Coast a run for its money, and have a history of doing so (who could forget that stunning 28-point victory in Perth in West Coast’s most recent premiership year). But given Collingwood is the biggest scalp Essendon has claimed this year, and the fact that the Dons have only won one of their last six matches, it would be a quantum leap for them to down the Eagles, who should make it three wins in a row against the Bombers for the first time in 10 years.
RONNY’S TIP: West Coast by 15 points.
ROCO’S TIP: West Coast by 24 points.
RICHMOND v FREMANTLE (Metricon Stadium, Wednesday 7.10pm local time)
After producing a month of highly competitive football, Fremantle came crashing down on the weekend with a comprehensive defeat to the previously out-of-sorts Giants. And now the Dockers must head back to the Queensland bubble to face the in-form premiership favourite Richmond, nice and settled having been “hubbing” in the Sunshine State for nearly two months now. And if the Tigers’ most recent performance against the Dockers’ crosstown rival West Coast, which was also playing its first game back in Queensland, is anything to go by, Freo’s experience against GWS will seem like a picnic. Having won eight of their last 10 games, the Tigers are going from strength to strength as another big finals campaign looms. Unfortunately for Justin Longmuir’s men, they are no match for the yellow-and-black juggernaut. Richmond has the fourth-best attack in the competition. Fremantle, on the other hand, is a bottom two offensive proposition. A fact which highlights the disparity in attacking potency between the two teams is that since round 10, the Tigers has retained possession from 55 per cent of its kicks into the forward 50 (ranked No.3 in the AFL), while the Dockers have been going at 40 per cent in that same period (ranked No.17). The Tigers have also won their last three against Freo by an average of 69 points.
RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 37 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 40 points.
SYDNEY v MELBOURNE (Cairns, Thursday 4.40pm local time)
The pathway to the finals has opened right up for Melbourne after its stirring three-point victory over the more fancied St Kilda on the weekend. That result saw the Demons sneak into the top eight with four rounds to go, which means their finals destiny is now in their hands – and with the Swans, Dockers, Giants and Bombers to come, they’d be backing themselves to qualify, too. But first things first, and that is John Longmire’s team. One thing you know you’ll get from Sydney more often than not is effort. The Swans might not be good enough to win games frequently, as their ladder position of 16th illustrates, but if they’re taken lightly, they’re capable of biting your backside (just ask GWS) – a commendable attribute given how many best-22 players they’re missing. Conversely, the Demons are pretty much full strength, and with four wins from their past five, are building some very nice momentum following their shaky 3-5 start to the season. And having taken the top eight scalps of Collingwood and St Kilda along the way, Melbourne is starting to look more like the big improver that many pundits picked them to be pre-season. The Swans will have a dip, and have won eight of their last nine games against the Dees, but Simon Goodwin’s men have too much on the line with the Giants, Dogs, Bombers and Blues all breathing down their neck for that last finals spot.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 21 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 12 points.
GWS v CARLTON (Metricon Stadium, Thursday 7.10pm local time)
If Carlton thought giving up a five-goal lead to Hawthorn was devastating, then its performance against Collingwood on Sunday would have felt like a dagger to the heart. For all intents and purposes, the Blues blew their finals hopes after going goalless in the second half against the Magpies, despite leading at half-time. It was simply a non-negotiable for David Teague’s side to finish off the Magpies, and it failed spectacularly. And now Carlton must prepare itself for a rejuvenated GWS, which just produced its best performance in over a month against Fremantle. Both the Giants and Blues are in a sizeable dogfight for that last spot in the top eight, and as GWS finally showed on the weekend, it is a very talented side when it applies itself. This spells danger for Carlton. With the revelation of Jake Riccardi, the Giants’ forward line has been given a new lease of life. Against the Dockers, GWS kicked a goal from 30 per cent of its inside 50s (ranked No.1 for round 14) while Carlton could only manage a goal from 16 per cent of entries against the Pies (ranked 16th). Adding to the Blues’ woes was Patrick Cripps’ knee tweak late against Collingwood. Given how tough he is, and how close their season is to oblivion, it would be surprising if he didn’t play, but the four-day turnaround could work against him. If Leon Cameron’s side has indeed flicked the switch, Carlton stands little chance. GWS has won its last two clashes with the Blues by an average of 99 points, too.
RONNY’S TIP: GWS by 24 points.
ROCO’S TIP: GWS by 16 points.
BRISBANE v COLLINGWOOD (Gabba, Friday 7.50pm local time)
Round 15 has saved the best for last with the match of the round being played at the end of the week between the Lions and Magpies. Collingwood seems to have turned a corner and despite not playing crash-hot footy, it has still managed to win four of its last five games – the last of which was the most impressive as it fought back from a half-time deficit to down old foe Carlton by four goals. But it’s fair to say Brisbane represents a significant jump in quality of opponent Collingwood has faced in recent times, and will serve as the Pies’ toughest task since they faced West Coast in round eight, when they lost by 11 goals. It must be said, though, that the Lions haven’t been in scintillating form either. Yes, they’ve won their last three, but scraped home in their last two against North Melbourne and St Kilda. Brisbane’s poor goalkicking has troubled it throughout the season, and reared its head again against the Kangaroos and Saints, the Lions kicking a combined 13.25 across those two games. It cost them in games against premiership contenders Geelong and Richmond, and it will cost them in future big games (namely finals) if they can’t fix it. They wouldn’t want to be wayward against a side like Collingwood, either, because the Magpies have enough quality in their line-up to make them pay. The Lions haven’t beaten the Magpies since 2014, with the latter winning the last six meetings. But all things being equal, Brisbane is a stronger team, and Nathan Buckley’s men will find it tough ending the Lions’ undefeated run at their Gabba home this year, which currently stands at six games.
RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 19 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Brisbane by 6 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 81
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 85