Sam Draper, back for Essendon this week, and Hawthorn’s Jon Ceglar, do ruck battle in round one. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
GEELONG v WESTERN BULLDOGS (GMHBA Stadium, Friday 7.50pm local time)
Footy returns to Victoria after a three-week hiatus (which has felt like an eternity for those of us who live in this lockdown-ravaged state), and with an added cherry on top, a capped crowd of 7000 will be able to attend Friday night’s top-four blockbuster between the Cats and Dogs. Given Geelong is a regional town which hasn’t recorded a single COVID case all year, the prohibition of a capacity crowd is a head scratcher, but that’s a debate for another time. Let’s focus on the footy, and what an absolute ripper this game promises to be. Having won its last five games by an average of five goals, including the scalps of Richmond and Port Adelaide, Geelong is the form team of the competition. It’s no surprise that the Cats have experienced dramatic improvement since Jeremy Cameron entered the line-up, the former Giant booting 23 goals from his seven games to bring a whole new, deadly dynamic to the forward line where he has formed the “three-headed monster” with Tom Hawkins and Gary Rohan. Now that they’re basically full strength with Cam Guthrie back in the side, the Cats are looking every bit a premiership contender. Their opponents this week, the Bulldogs, have produced the most scintillating football this year at full flight, but against Richmond, and more recently Melbourne, have shown how susceptible they can be when subjected to enormous pressure for prolonged periods – their backline can’t cope and their exquisite skills suffer. And they’ll undoubtedly experience a similar acid test this week coming up against another heavyweight side. They’re still missing Josh Dunkley (shoulder), Adam Treloar (ankle) and Easton Wood (hamstring), but in some positive news, key ruckman Stefan Martin (AC joint) has been named after appearing to suffer a significant injury against the Dockers last time out. This is a mouth-watering contest, but the Cats are flying and in front of a crowd at their home ground, where the Dogs have lost their last nine games by an average of 34 points in a streak dating back to 2005, they should be too good.
RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 12 points.
ROCO’S TIP Geelong by 22 points.
GOLD COAST v PORT ADELAIDE (Metricon Stadium, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
This is a pretty straightforward game to predict. The Suns are back to square one after missing a golden opportunity to prove to the footy world that they’re indeed maturing as a footy club. A majority of teams would have flown over to Perth last week and beaten an injury-ravaged Fremantle line-up that was missing half of its best players. But not only did Gold Coast lose, it lost comfortably by 27 points. Certainly not for the first time in their 10-year existence, the Suns find themselves back to square one searching for answers as to how they can effectively remedy the malaise which has come to define their existence as an AFL club. And this week, they take on one of the most predictable teams in the league. Port Adelaide struggles against the better teams, with just one win from five encounters with top-eight sides so far this year, but when it comes to bottom-10 opponents, the Power lick their chops. Stuart Dew’s men can prepare themselves for a beatdown this week, especially given Port Adelaide is on the rebound and hungry to atone for another defeat to a contender in Geelong on its home turf.
RONNY’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 28 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 36 points.
NORTH MELBOURNE v BRISBANE (Blundstone Arena, Saturday 4.35pm local time)
This game was supposed to be played at Marvel Stadium, but the Kangaroos are probably secretly happy it was shifted to Tasmania because they have proven to be a very hard nut to crack down there. In their three games on the Apple Isle so far this year, North have scored their solitary win against Hawthorn, led ladder leader Melbourne by 20 points (before losing by 30) and enjoyed a five-goal advantage against top-eight aspirant GWS on the weekend before having to settle for a draw. Make no mistake, this looms as a danger game for the Lions, whose seven-game winning streak was brought to a screeching halt by the Demons in round 12. This is Brisbane’s first ever trip to Blundstone Arena, and while the Lions have won their last two games in Tasmania, the country’s most southern state hasn’t proven to be a happy hunting ground historically with just three wins from 10 attempts in Launceston. All things being equal, the Lions should get the job done, especially when you consider the sensational form they were in for 7.5 games, before Melbourne overran them in the second half at Giants Stadium. But you get the feeling it’s not going to be as easy as it seems on paper. Incredibly, Brisbane is aiming to beat North Melbourne four times in a row for the first time ever, as either the Bears or Lions.
RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 9 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Brisbane by 10 points.
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GWS v CARLTON (Giants Stadium, Saturday 7.25pm local time)
The Giants will still be smarting from their inability to capture all four premiership points against North Melbourne last week, especially Daniel Lloyd, who did so well to get his side right back into the contest with a couple of late goals, but somehow failed to score in the dying stages with a kick from inside 50. Despite the result, GWS is still in the finals hunt and will be boosted by the key inclusions of Phil Davis and Harry Perryman. The Blues, on the other hand, don’t really have much else to play for this year. Their 2021 campaign which held such high hopes from the club’s hierarchy in the pre-season is already shot to ribbons after 12 games. Like Port Adelaide, Carlton is a very predictable team. You can usually back the Blues to take care of teams around or below them, just like you can bet your bottom dollar that they will test, but ultimately struggle to overcome teams above them – the Giants are one such team. GWS also has the wood over Carlton, with seven wins from its last eight meetings by an average of 62 points (the blemish in the middle a one-point loss), and has never lost to Carlton at its home ground. Don’t expect that trend to change this weekend.
RONNY’S TIP: GWS by 24 points.
ROCO’S TIP: GWS by 40 points.
HAWTHORN v ESSENDON (Launceston, Sunday 3.20pm local time)
Another game in Tasmania, and another potential banana skin for the bookmakers’ favourite. The Bombers have been a revelation this year with their exciting brand of football, fuelled largely by precocious youngsters and valuable trades, clearly indicating that this is a revitalised football team playing with genuine freedom and unencumbered minds for the first time in a very long time. They’ll also be buoyed by the huge news that star midfielder Zach Merrett has committed his future to the Dons with a brand new six-year deal. Apart from blowout losses to Port Adelaide and Brisbane, Essendon has been super competitive in each of its matches this season. However, the Hawks look like a team that really benefitted from their mid-season break as they produced one of the upsets of the season with a thumping win over Sydney at the SCG last week. Alastair Clarkson’s men look rejuvenated, and coming up against one of the few sides they’ve already beaten this year, will no doubt have their tails up, confident of repeating the dose from round one. By the same token, Essendon really should have won that contest after leading by 41 points, and it could prove to be a result that costs it a finals berth. So Ben Rutten’s side certainly has plenty of motivation to right those wrongs. The game was supposed to be at the MCG, but the shift to Tassie certainly evens things up in Hawthorn’s favour. Both teams have lost key players with Hawthorn making do without Harry Morrison (hamstring) and James Worpel (suspension), while the Bombers lose Andrew McGrath (knee) and Aaron Francis (personal reasons). But Essendon has been able to name Devon Smith, Sam Draper and Peter Wright in its extended squad. This is just the second time the Bombers have ever played a game for premiership points in the Apple Isle, the last and only time previously in 1992 against Fitzroy at North Hobart Oval. And while they’ll be made to earn it, they should emerge with victory and stay in touch with the top eight.
RONNY’S TIP: Essendon by 8 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Essendon by 16 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 73
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 77
