Christian Petracca is tackled by Andrew Brayshaw when Melbourne last faced Fremantle in Round 1, 2021. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
SYDNEY v RICHMOND (SCG, Friday 7.50pm local time)
What better way to kick off the round than with a meeting between two sides in the bottom rungs of the top eight that are separated by just 0.02 per cent. It doesn’t get much tighter than that, and it should ensure a cracking contest. The Swans (seventh) really haven’t seemed like themselves in the past month, losing three of their last four games with their only win coming courtesy of that training drill against Essendon. And, crucially, they’ve been shown up by a pair of top-four sides in that period (Brisbane and Carlton) as well as the improved Suns. Last week they were absolutely towelled up by the Blues in contested possessions and had no answers for the incredible Carlton pressure in the second quarter which yielded nine goals and ultimately decided the contest. Conversely, Richmond (eighth) is starting to look like the Tigers of old having now won four games in a row for the first time since 2020-21 (a streak which included their last flag). Their run-and-gun method from the backline has reaped dividends and they seem like a rejuvenated bunch. However, they have suffered a pair of huge outs this week in the in-form Tom Lynch (hamstring) as well as Kane Lambert (hip). Although, Jack Graham and Marlion Pickett do return. The Swans will have to make do without Josh Kennedy (hamstring) and Tom Hickey (toe), but regain James Rowbottom and Sam Reid who, you would imagine, will help Peter Ladhams combat Toby Nankervis in the ruck. The one caveat on Richmond’s recent purple patch is that all of those wins have come against bottom-10 sides. If the Tigers can make it five in a row in this contest, then you will know they’re a genuine finals contender.
RONNY’S TIP: Sydney by 10 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Sydney by 2 points.
GEELONG v ADELAIDE (Kardinia Park, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
The air has well and truly been let out of the Crows’ tyres after their promising start to the year. And while they were very competitive against a top side like St Kilda last week, they have now lost their last four games to slide into the bottom four with a 3-7 record. And while they are bolstered by the returns of Jordon Butts, Wayne Milera, Reilly O’Brien and Matt Crouch, they lose star forward Taylor Walker (COVID) as well as young gun Josh Rachele (thigh). The Cats might be without champion Paddy Dangerfield (calf), but his influence on games has been diluted drastically this year anyway, so they should have few issues in disposing of Adelaide on their home ground as they attempt to stay in touch with the top four. The inconsistent Cats are searching for back-to-back wins for the first time since Round 4, having gone win-loss for the past seven rounds.
RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 33 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 32 points.
BRISBANE v GWS (Gabba, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
A change is as good as a holiday as they say, and that adage couldn’t have been more appropriately applied than to the Giants who kicked off their post-Leon Cameron era last week with a big win against West Coast under caretaker coach Mark McVeigh. But that holiday looks like it’s going to be ruined by some pretty nasty weather this week as GWS heads up north to face flag fancy Brisbane, still smarting from its upset loss to Hawthorn last week. Granted, the Gabba is the scene of one of the Giants’ greatest ever triumphs – a three-point win in the 2019 semi-final – but that was a long time ago, and this is a different team. And if the Giants think they’re going to be able to score as freely as they did against the lowly Eagles last week, they would want to think again. Brisbane on the rebound at home is a daunting task and the Lions welcome back key bookends Daniel McStay and Marcus Adams from injury. Expect Chris Fagan’s men to bounce back as they look to preserve their status as a top-two side.
RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 42 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Brisbane by 12 points.
NARRM (MELBOURNE) v FREMANTLE (MCG, Saturday 4.35pm local time)
The match of the round being staged at twilight on Saturday isn’t ideal, but that’s how the cookie crumbled for this portion of the rolling fixture. And while on the face of it a clash between two top-four teams at the halfway mark of the season should be a tantalising affair, the Dockers have suffered a major stumble in the past couple of weeks to slip three games adrift of the undefeated Demons. So much so that it might have just tempered the anticipation for this game. Fremantle was absolutely outplayed in the wet in consecutive weeks by Gold Coast and Collingwood to the tune of 36 points on each occasion. And while conditions appear to be more favourable on Saturday, the Dockers need to regroup drastically if they intend to challenge the Melbourne juggernaut. As impressive as Justin Longmuir’s side has been so far this year, it’s hard to see how it’s going to bring the Demons undone as they chase an 18th consecutive win, which would draw them within one of their all-time club record.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 25 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 16 points.
WEST COAST v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Optus Stadium, Saturday 5.30pm local time)
The season can’t end quickly enough for the hapless Eagles who sit on the bottom of the ladder with one win and have now lost their last six games by a staggering average of 76 points. Their chances of meaningfully troubling the Bulldogs this week appear to be slimmer than slim, even with champion forward Josh Kennedy back in the side. The Dogs certainly haven’t been setting the world on fire, but with a couple of wins in a row under their belt for the first time this year, they’ve evened their ledger at 5-5, and are now within touching distance of the top eight. They’ll make the trip west without superstar midfielder Bailey Smith due to illness, but the return of gun trio Tim English, Cody Weightman and Taylor Duryea will serve as a huge boost.
RONNY’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 42 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 40 points.
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GOLD COAST v HAWTHORN (TIO Stadium, Saturday 7.10pm local time)
The centrepiece of the second week of the AFL’s Indigenous Round, it’s always a special occasion when footy at the elite level is played in Darwin. And it will be a first for the Hawks who have never played a premiership game at this venue. The Suns have played there twice, but lost both times, so one team will score its first ever win at the ground. And it’s shaping up as a crunch clash for both sides as they try and remain in touch with the top eight, both on 4-6 and separated by just one per cent with the Suns 12th and the Hawks 13th. And they each take super form into this game with Gold Coast recently claiming the prized scalps of Sydney and Fremantle, while Hawthorn stunned Brisbane last week in arguably the upset of the season. However, the Hawks’ form appears to be more sporadic while the Suns look more like a consistent team in the past three weeks, in a welcome departure from their usually unreliable selves.
RONNY’S TIP: Gold Coast by 12 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Gold Coast by 8 points.
ST KILDA v NORTH MELBOURNE (Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1.10pm local time)
On and off the field, the Kangaroos look every bit a basket case. They are getting routinely smashed in games, having lost their last eight by an average of 61 points, they had three recruiters abruptly resign during the week, and the speculation surrounding the disconnect between coach David Noble and his players does not go away. Even if everything was hunky dory off the field, North would struggle to get within eight goals of the Saints, so what hope do the Roos have of avoiding another smashing at the hands of a top-four contender with all of this drama that they also have to contend with?
RONNY’S TIP: St Kilda by 66 points.
ROCO’S TIP: St Kilda by 50 points.
COLLINGWOOD v CARLTON (MCG, Sunday 3.20pm local time)
For most of the past decade this greatest of VFL/AFL rivalries has largely lay dormant, mainly due to how poor Carlton has been. But not since perhaps the Blues beat the Magpies by 10 goals early in the 2012 season to be briefly installed has flag favourites have these two teams faced off in a bigger clash. The Magpies head into this match fresh from causing a massive boilover last week against Fremantle, while the Blues are humming along beautifully, winning their last four games to sit pretty in the top four with an 8-2 record – their best start since 1996. The Pies are now the ones who head into a Collingwood-Carlton clash as the underdogs, but they have already shown this year in games against St Kilda, Geelong, Brisbane and Fremantle that they are definitely capable of mixing it with the top teams. The key to victory for Craig McRae’s men will be to start well, because Carlton has made a habit of blowing teams away in the first half before hanging on for the win with enough damage being done early to counteract its worrying fadeout trend. Easier said than done, though. The Blues have been absolutely electric at the start of games when they’re at their freshest. They’ve also been coping just fine without Harry McKay in attack, resorting to a smaller forward line with devastating results, as the Swans found out most recently. It will be interesting to see how Collingwood’s in-form backline comprising the likes of Darcy Moore, Jeremy Howe and John Noble will cope with the Carlton mosquito fleet. These arch rivals are locked on 128 wins apiece and four draws from their 260 meetings, but Carlton should get its nose back in front.
RONNY’S TIP: Carlton by 21 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Carlton by 20 points.
PORT ADELAIDE v ESSENDON (Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4.10pm local time)
Essendon was better last week against Richmond, but it was coming off a pretty low base the week prior against Sydney. And it must now negotiate a Power line-up that will feature Charlie Dixon for the first time this year. Dixon has enjoyed playing the Bombers recently too, kicking a combined 6.5 in his last two meetings against them (4.2 and 2.3). Essendon must do without Mason Redman (suspension) and Matt Guelfi (hamstring), but have regained Jordan Ridley while Jye Caldwell has been named in their extended squad as well as Harrison Jones who could play his first game for the year after overcoming ankle issues. The challenge for the Dons now is to ensure they maintain the same level of effort they showed against the Tigers for the remainder of the year. Until they prove they can do so on a consistent basis, they simply can’t be trusted to win games of footy, especially against a revitalised Port side on its home ground.
RONNY’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 33 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 42 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 62
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 62