Dustin Martin bursts out of the centre during Richmond’s win over Brisbane at the MCG in Round 23. Photo: AFL MEDIA

FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL
WEST COAST v ESSENDON (Optus Stadium, Thursday 6.10pm local time)

This is probably the most one-sided contest of the first four finals with West Coast the shortest-priced favourites by some margin. The Eagles would still be kicking themselves at missing out on a double chance following their shock loss to Hawthorn in the last round at home.

It is that game that holds the secrets for the Bombers if they’re good enough to cause a massive upset this week. The Eagles buckled under enormous pressure and had no answers for the Hawks’ quick ball movement.

That’s something the Bombers can execute given they’re the third-best tackling team in the competition, the Eagles are second last on differentials for contested possession and the Bombers’ run-and-gun game from defence can be electrifying if left unchecked.

West Coast’s defensive pillars Jeremy McGovern and Tom Barrass have looked quite shaky recently, too, so it would be wise for Essendon to give those two extra attention and ramp up the heat from the get-go.

West Coast certainly isn’t infallible at home, either, as evidenced by its losses to Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Hawthorn at Optus Stadium this year – not to mention the Dons’ stunning win against the Eagles there last year. However, the Eagles are yet to taste back-to-back defeats at their new home.

The last time these two teams met, West Coast’s midfield absolutely smashed Essendon’s, and for large chunks of the game, the Bombers couldn’t get it out of their back half. With 36 scoring shots to 16, the 35-point margin definitely flattered the Bombers.

With their attack ranked 13th in the AFL, scoring has been a huge issue for John Worsfold’s men, particularly in the last four rounds, where they’ve averaged a score of just 63 – 14 less than their season average of 77.

The Bombers are taking one last roll of the dice on season 2019 with big guns Jake Stringer, Dyson Heppell, Cale Hooker and Orazio Fantasia all welcomed back, while Dylan Clarke has been left out, further suggesting that the Dons plan on going all-out attack.

But Nic Naitanui is back for the Eagles, and while Tom Bellchambers did a great job on him last year, Nic Nat makes West Coast a drastically better team. Josh Kennedy has been in poor form, but he played one of his best games of the year against Essendon, and Michael Hurley (shoulder), who is not 100 per cent fit, could be exploited by the most accurate team in the AFL.

RONNY’S TIP: West Coast by 27 points.
ROCO’S TIP: West Coast by 28 points.

FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL
GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD (MCG, Friday 7.50pm local time)

This is the match which has arguably drawn more attention than any of the other first-week finals, and it’s mainly due to Geelong coach Chris Scott’s relentless public commentary about at which venue the match should be played – obviously, he believes it should be at the Cattery! To borrow a line from the great Dennis Cometti: “That’s ambitious”.

Given the Cats’ record at the MCG this year (4-1), and the fact they won three grand finals in five years there not too long ago, it made Scott’s musings even more confounding.

The other big talking point surrounding this contest is the perception of a settled team (Geelong) versus an unsettled team (Collingwood) as a result of the Magpies being expected to welcome back star players Jordan de Goey, Steele Sidebottom and Jaidyn Stephenson all in one hit.

They’ve also declared Darcy Moore (hamstring) ready to go, despite Moore appearing to be spooked by how reliable the troublesome muscle was in round 23 when he took himself from the ground against Essendon – subsequent scans revealed no damage. James Aish (shoulder) might also be considered.

Conversely, the Cats could very well go in unchanged, with Tom Atkins (hand) and Jake Kolodjashnij (hip) the only ones mounting a case to push their way back into the side. However, the Bulldogs showed at the start of their magical 2016 finals campaign that making wholesale changes can be a positive when they welcomed back five players for their first final that year.

What a game this promises to be as the No.1 defence (Geelong) takes on the No.7 attack (Collingwood), while the No.2 defence (Collingwood) meets the No.2 attack (Geelong).

Recent history definitely favours the Cats, who have won their last three against the Magpies (all at the MCG, Mr Scott), and restricted them to an average of just 56 points per game in those meetings.

The Magpies will have a clear advantage in the ruck with Brodie Grundy up against Rhys Stanley, but the Cats’ midfield is good enough to counter that anticipated dominance.

The Magpies’ recent form (four wins in a row) is much more solid than the up-and-down Cats, who have gone loss-win since the mid-season bye, but Collingwood didn’t really beat anyone of note in that streak, while Geelong pushed the Lions to within one point at the Gabba two games ago. Collingwood’s new-look forward line, without the injured Mason Cox, who was their September hero last year, could also prove to be a spanner for the Cats’ brilliant backline.

There’s plenty of redemption being chased by both teams as the Pies look to atone for last year’s grand final loss and the Cats are desperate to turn around their horrible recent finals record (3-9), but Geelong might just have a bit too much polish across the park.

RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 4 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 10 points.

SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL
GWS v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Giants Stadium, Saturday 3.20pm local time)

If the Bulldogs could choose any ground in Australia outside of Victoria at which to play, the Giants’ home would surely be it.

The ground has certainly helped creating some great memories for them. Not only is it the site of the third-greatest win in the club’s history, when they famously took down GWS by a goal in the 2016 preliminary final, but they also smashed the expansion club by 11 goals there just a couple of games ago.

However, it must be said a very different Giants team will be rolled out this week to that which ran out in round 22, with Jeremy Cameron, Jeremy Finlayson, Shane Mumford, Jacob Hopper, Daniel Lloyd and Sam Taylor all set to feature, while Brett Deledio (calf) is a chance, too.

The Doggies’ run into this year’s finals series is eerily similar to three years ago, as they have won eight of their last 11 games to be one of the form teams of the competition – not to mention again finishing seventh on the ladder.

It’s all come together for the Dogs at the right time of year with their devastating speed and skill proving too much for many teams, while they’re also in the top three in the AFL for differentials in inside 50s, uncontested possessions and ground balls.

But GWS is No.1 for ground balls, and the Giants are also top of the pops for percentage of scores per inside 50 differential, as well as No.2 for scoring accuracy. So if GWS can get the ball inside its attacking zone more often than the Dogs, the Giants will be hard to beat.

It’s the old cliche, but this will definitely be won in the midfield, and right now the Doggies have arguably the best engine room in the competition, plus the incredible momentum that they’ve generated should be strong enough to push them into at least the second week of the finals.

RONNY’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 11 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 12 points.

SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL
BRISBANE v RICHMOND (Gabba, Saturday 7.25pm local time)

What a rip-snorter this game promises to be. The seasoned former champs in Richmond up against the young, brash title contenders in Brisbane. It’s arguably the most tantalising final of the weekend.

The Lions are 10-1 at the Gabba this year, while Richmond has won its last nine games, and, coincidentally, ended Brisbane’s nine-game winning streak in the last match.

It’s not often that two teams play each other again in the first week of the finals after meeting in the final round, but this scenario helps the upstart Lions more as they doubtlessly would’ve learned a lot from their round 23 loss to the Tigers and will be keen to put into practice those lessons.

They looked a little overawed in the first term by the 77,000 fans (Brisbane’s biggest home-and-away crowd) as Richmond skipped away to a 25-point lead, but after quarter-time, the Lions held their own and were only outscored by two points in the final three terms.

Brisbane struggled with Richmond’s quick handball game, which sees the Tigers effectively keep the ball moving forward at all costs, and if conditions become dewy, as Brisbane nights are known to do, the Tigers will be licking their chops as arguably the best wet-weather team in the league.

One area Brisbane can try and exploit is that on differentials, the Lions are No.1 for scores from stoppages, while the Tigers are 16th for clearances.

As good as Brisbane has been at home, though, Richmond look like men on a mission, especially after the shock preliminary final loss to Collingwood last year. The Tigers’ immense finals experience, star power on every line and desire to win the flag they believe they should have won in 2018 might be too much for Brisbane to handle so early in its journey towards greatness.

RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 17 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 22 points.

RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 125
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 131