Sydney’s Tom Papley celebrates a goal in the Swans’ Round 12 win over Melbourne at the MCG. Photo: AFL MEDIA

SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL
BRISBANE v RICHMOND (Gabba, Thursday 7.20pm local time)
The annoying pre-finals bye is finally out of the way and we can now focus on the most important month of the footy season. And it all kicks off on Thursday night with a tantalising cut-throat encounter between the Lions and the Tigers. If there’s one team in this clash that is carrying the weight and pressure of expectation on its shoulders, it is surely the hosts. Brisbane is on the verge of a fourth wasted year in a row, having won just one of six finals in the last three seasons, including a pair of straight-sets exits in 2019 and 2021. The fact that four of those five defeats came at their home ground would add extra anxiety for the Lions heading into this game. And their one victory in that period (coincidentally against Richmond) in 2020 was followed up by a thumping preliminary final defeat to Geelong with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity of a Gabba grand final at their mercy. Brisbane’s recent smashing at its home by Melbourne wouldn’t fill it with confidence either. And the Lions’ task won’t be made easier by the absence of key suspended duo Cam Rayner and Noah Answerth as well as the injured Jarryd Lyons (groin), while tall defender Marcus Adams (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Conversely, Richmond, having already won three premierships in five seasons, enters this contest “playing with house money”. The Tigers finished the season in red-hot form, winning their last four games by an average of 43 points – a streak which was kickstarted by their inspirational victory over the Lions in Round 20, which saw them fight back from 42 points down to triumph by seven. It took Richmond longer than it would have liked, but it has found its best form at the right time of the year, and with the added luxury of welcoming back superstar Dustin Martin from injury, should repeat the dose of the 2019 qualifying final and continue Brisbane’s miserable recent run in September.
RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 22 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 16 points.

SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL
MELBOURNE v SYDNEY (MCG, Friday 7.50pm local time)
This clash is going to be hard to beat for match-of-the-weekend honours. A couple of per cent either way and it would have been played at the SCG, but after heading into the final round in third spot, the Demons made sure they would be hosting a final in the first week after obliterating Brisbane at the Gabba. It was a second statement game in the space of four weeks for Melbourne, which also crushed Fremantle in Perth in Round 20. Those two victories were crucial indicators that the Demons still had what it took to win the flag after they struggled for form and consistency for much of the second half of the season. But the Swans certainly won’t take a backward step, and they head into the finals as one of the in-form teams having won 10 of their last 12 games, including their last seven straight, snapping Collingwood’s 11-game winning streak in the process. Significantly, one of those wins was against the Demons at the MCG back in June, a result built largely on Sydney’s domination of points from turnover. But this match will take on a different complexion considering star Melbourne defender Steven May and champion Sydney forward Lance Franklin will both be playing. The Swans will also be hoping that Tom Papley (concussion) will be available. The Demons, meanwhile, are confident that Luke Jackson (calf) and Christian Salem (groin) will be fit, but James Jordon could miss the remainder of the year after breaking his foot playing in the VFL last weekend. Might they consider Tom McDonald (ankle) after playing his first game back in the reserves since Round 10? It would surely be tempting given how important he is to their forward structure. The Demons’ powerful, surge, contested-ball game style is back with a vengeance recently, and while the Swans won’t die wondering, Melbourne looks like it has flicked the premiership switch.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 18 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 8 points.

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FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL
GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD (MCG, Saturday 4.35pm local time)
Undoubtedly the most surprising finals match-up of the weekend, the Magpies have done a tremendous job lifting themselves from 17th last year to the top four this year. And they’ve done it on the back of their incredible record in close games, which has seen them win 11 of 12 matches decided by 11 points or fewer, and nine of 10 decided by seven points or fewer. But can they keep getting away with playing their unique brand of footy in the searing heat of the finals furnace? That will be the million-dollar question. And they won’t get a much sterner stress test of this theory than Geelong, which heads into this game as the minor premier and the form team of the competition. The Cats have won their last 13 games and have very few weaknesses, if any, in their line-up. They’re also about to welcome back key trio Jeremy Cameron, Mitch Duncan and Rhys Stanley, while Jake Kolodjashnij (concussion) is a decent chance of lining up as well. Meanwhile, Collingwood vice-captain Taylor Adams looks likely to return from a groin injury. There is nowhere to hide against Geelong, which makes it hard to see Collingwood getting away with large lapses and huge statistical discrepancies but still emerging victorious, as they have done many times in their last 12 wins. The last time these two sides met back in Round 3, the Pies applied enormous pressure to the Cats for much of the first three quarters and led by 30 points heading into the final term. But, critically, they switched off and Geelong ran rampant, booting 7.2 to 0.1 to win by 13 points in a barnstorming display. Collingwood cannot afford to take the foot off the pedal against arguably the most complete team in the AFL, but worryingly for the Pies, they are still yet to prove they are a four-quarter team.
RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 25 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 16 points.

FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL
FREMANTLE v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Optus Stadium, Saturday 6.10pm local time)
Luck’s a fortune, and while the Dogs probably shouldn’t even be in the finals this year, they benefitted from one of the most dramatic finishes to a VFL/AFL season as Carlton fell to Collingwood by a solitary point, which was enough to lift Luke Beveridge’s men from ninth to eighth, edging out the Blues by a measly 0.6 per cent. It doesn’t get much more incredible than that. But while the Dogs are proven performers from the bottom half of the eight in recent years, making a pair of grand finals from seventh and fifth, and winning the flag in the first instance, they are going to have to dig incredibly deep to come even close to replicating the deeds of their 2016 and 2021 teams. After all, they won 15 games in both of those seasons, while they could only manage 12 this year. And they come up against a Fremantle team that has spent much of the season inside the top four. Under Justin Longmuir, the Dockers have regained the respect of the footy world. The last time they played the Bulldogs in Round 21 was a prime example. On that occasion, Fremantle executed its game plan to perfection, playing keepings off, denying the Dogs the ball, finishing up with a whopping 140 marks, and smashing them on transition. All year the Bulldogs have found it hard defending the ground, which explains why they have the 11th-ranked defence in the competition, the worst of the finalists. It really is a tale of two defences, with the Dockers’ rock-solid backline propelling them to No.2 in the league. The Dockers will be without skipper Nat Fyfe (hamstring), but they’ve missed him for most of the season, and his absence hasn’t troubled them too much. Rory Lobb (chest/shoulder), Griffin Logue (groin) and Matt Taberner (calf) might all return for the Dockers, too. If the Dogs are any chance, they have to win the clearances convincingly, and without Tom Liberatore (hamstring), that job will be made much harder.
RONNY’S TIP: Fremantle by 29 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Fremantle by 20 points.

RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 137
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 143