Maddie Prespakis is back for Carlton after a one-game suspension, and the Blues need her badly. Photo: AFL MEDIA
The business end of the season is officially upon us and with it comes time to separate the contenders from pretenders — especially when adversity hits.
Both ladder-leading Collingwood and the fast-rising Western Bulldogs lost important forwards last round to ruptured anterior cruciate ligaments. Brisbane shocked the Dockers into an uncomfortable truth: they’re not invincible.
It may be too soon to stick a fork in the Blues’ flag chances – and they’ll be boosted with the return of Maddie Prespakis from her one-match suspension – but did anyone really expect Carlton at this juncture to be sitting eighth on the ladder?
Melbourne must somehow shake itself from a horrid fortnight which has seen it kick a combined 3.20 in the last two matches, while on-and-off again St Kilda looked as if it needed a visa to advance into its forward half.
Richmond’s dominance and West Coast’s desperation prolonged winless pain for both Geelong – whose young star Olivia Purcell’s season is over after doing a knee – and Gold Coast, respectively.
But after this round, it appears AFLW clubs and fans, barring another COVID-19 lockdown, finally will have some certainty, as the league has now locked in this season’s last three matches.
RICHMOND v NORTH MELBOURNE (Friday 5.10 pm, Swinburne Centre)
Despite the disparity in their ladder positions, both the Tigers and Roos last week showed just how good they can be. In Tasmania, North returned to form after a goalless humiliation at Collingwood’s hands, to kick nine majors. The Roos’ ruck division took a bit of a hit, though, with Vivien Saad copping a one-week suspension for making forceful contact with the Blues’ Tayla Harris. North’s midfielders reigned supreme over Carlton’s, as the fearsome quartet of Jasmine Garner, Emma Kearney, Jenna Bruton and Ashleigh Riddell did serious heavy lifting in winning the ball. Richmond might have scored the biggest feel-good win of the year last round, smashing Geelong to end a 10-match losing streak. Nascent Richmond showed it can match it with developed sides when two weeks ago it nearly toppled Carlton, so North shouldn’t underestimate the Tigers. Richmond is sure to put up a big fight on its home deck, but North has too many weapons on this occasion for Richmond to contend with.
GIL TIPS: North Melbourne
GWS v BRISBANE (Saturday 3.10 pm, Manuka Oval)
The Lions answered a big question last weekend as to whether they can win away against quality opposition. Their win in Perth over the previously unbeaten Dockers gives them an air of great confidence, so this week against a struggling side like GWS, the Lions might be looking at the Giants as prey. It’s not often Brisbane’s star forwards Dakota Davidson and Jess Tawhiao-Wardlaw are held goalless as they were last week, so expect them to be hungry to break loose and have some scoreboard impact. The same might be true for the Giants’ Cora Staunton, unstoppable against West Coast two weeks ago, but hushed last week by the Bulldogs. While the Lions won’t take the Giants lightly, this match has “percentage booster” written all over it, with Brisbane owning a competition-best 246.2 percentage, compared to GWS’s third-lowest 64.5. Look for the Lions to build finals momentum.
GIL TIPS: Brisbane
ADELAIDE v GOLD COAST (Saturday 5.10 pm, Norwood Oval)
Give the Suns credit for battling to the death last round against West Coast, playing an inspired second half of football to nearly snatch a victory, but falling by one point. On the stat sheet, this match against the Crows looks unfair. Adelaide has the more established stars, the bigger bodies, the motivation to return to finals, the hot form, and the home ground advantage. Last week, the Crows absolutely throttled St Kilda – not even allowing the Saints a possession inside their forward 50 until the dying minutes of the third term – turning the match into a glorified training run. It’s hard not to see this contest quickly becoming a hot mess for Gold Coast, still yet to win this season, while Adelaide must be salivating at the opportunity to build its percentage.
GIL TIPS: Adelaide
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MELBOURNE v ST KILDA (Saturday 7.10 pm, Casey Fields)
It would be hard to find two more frustrated clubs at the moment than these two. After three rounds, the Dees looked formidable at 3-0, but here they are three weeks on and two losses later, looking like a side groping in the dark to find their way. Against the Bulldogs two weeks ago, the Demons helped beat themselves with wayward kicking. Last week, the Dees’ radar was again off when kicking for goal and Collingwood swooped on seemingly every skill error they made. St Kilda goes all right when it goes into its forward end, but – despite having skilled midfielder Georgia Patrikios, who knows a thing or two about breaking lines – that’s no guarantee to happen against quality opposition. The Dees’ Karen Paxman and Lily Mithen have had sensational seasons, rebounding from down back and going forward, and you’d have to think this club is due to turn things around sometime soon when lining up for goal. While the Saints are an unlikely finals side this season, it’s gut-check time for the Dees – are they a legit top six contender, or are they a middle-of-the-pack also-ran? Watch the Dees break through this weekend, back home at Casey.
GIL TIPS: Melbourne
CARLTON v GEELONG (Sunday 12.40 pm, Ikon Park)
If it’s gut-check time for Melbourne, it’s put up or shut-up time for Carlton. Fortunately for the Blues, they’ve got the potential wooden-spooners at home. Carlton won’t be feeling too sociable after taking a North Melbourne belting, and the Blues are getting back Prespakis, arguably their best player. She’ll be fired up to ball-hunt, while the Cats will be sorely missing Purcell. The Blues’ Darcy Vescio has been in red-hot form the last two rounds, showing her prowess at being able to turn any match on its head in a matter of minutes. With the Cats having the competition’s lowest percentage, they’re not dead last by accident. The developing side is again likely to trudge off the ground licking its wounds, while Carlton makes another run at the top six.
GIL TIPS: CARLTON
COLLINGWOOD v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Sunday 2:40 pm, Victoria Park)
This one easily has match-of-the-round potential, with each club feeling awfully good about their footy. With the Magpies now the competition’s lone undefeated side, they have to be feeling like flag favourites. Not to be outdone, the Doggies are riding a four-game winning streak. Still, each team lost an important forward line member, both to ACL ruptures — the Pies’ Jordan Membrey is out for the year after doing her knee, and ditto for the Doggies’ Dee Berry. Through the middle, the Pies’ brigade of Brianna Davey, Jaimee Lambert, Steph Chiocci and Britt Bonnici have been ridiculously prolific in piling on possessions, while Chloe Molloy and Aishling Sheridan have been dangerous in front of goal. Bulldog midfield stalwart Ellie Blackburn will need help from her supporting cast, while a match-up at the top of the goal square between Blackburn’s teammate Izzy Huntington and the Pies’ Stacey Livingstone could be epic. If any team right now looks like it could upset Collingwood, it’s the Doggies, the way they aggressively move the ball and play without fear. This will be a close one, but take the Dogs in an upset.
GIL TIPS: Western Bulldogs
WEST COAST v FREMANTLE (Sunday 4.40 pm, Optus Oval)
It’s derby time again, with the ladies’ sides playing the curtain raiser before the men’s sides do battle. The last meeting was played in the wet and then-winless West Coast didn’t seem intimidated against then-unbeaten Freo. The Eagles, indeed, are flying high, fresh off an adrenaline-fueled, one-point win over Gold Coast, while Freo was humbled at home by Brisbane. While Fremantle kicked a meagre 1.8 last week, don’t forget that the Dockers have conceded only 86 points, the fewest in the competition. Freo’s gun forwards Gemma Houghton and Sabreena Duffy have been kept goalless the last two rounds, so look for them to be ravenous to make major scoreboard impact. The Dockers will have to lower their eyes in their forward entries, but most importantly, get on the board in the first term, which they’ve struggled to do. The Eagles’ teenage jet Mikayla Bowen, last round’s co-Rising Star nominee, will be rapt to impress in the derby, but the Dockers will be playing with the proverbial chip on their shoulder and should bounce back strongly with a convincing win.
GIL TIPS: Fremantle
