After a bumpy ride under Nathan Buckley, Collingwood finally got it together on and off the field in 2018. Photo: AFL MEDIA
COLLINGWOOD
2018 record: 17 wins, 9 losses (2nd)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 2nd
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 2nd
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 17th
THE INS
Dayne Beams (Brisbane), Jordan Roughead (Western Bulldogs), Isaac Quaynor (Oakleigh Chargers), Will Kelly (Oakleigh Chargers), Atu Bosenavulagi (Oakleigh Chargers), Anton Tohill (Derry – GAA), Mark Keane (Cork – GAA)
THE OUTS
Alex Fasolo (Carlton), Jarryd Blair (delisted), Kayle Kirby (retired), Sam McLarty (delisted), Adam Oxley (delisted), Josh Smith (delisted – West Coast)
THE BEST 22
B: Brayden Maynard, Darcy Moore, Tom Langdon
HB: Jeremy Howe, Tyson Goldsack, Jack Crisp
C: Steele Sidebottom, Dayne Beams, Adam Treloar
HF: Jaidyn Stephenson, Mason Cox, Will Hoskin-Elliott
F: Jamie Elliott, Jordan De Goey, Brody Mihocek
R: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams
Inter: Tom Phillips, Travis Varcoe, Chris Mayne, Josh Thomas
Emerg: Jordan Roughead, Matt Scharenberg, Daniel Wells, Levi Greenwood
THE PROGNOSIS
“Please explain?” Pauline Hanson famously asked a couple of decades ago. And as the black-and-white lynch mobs start forming outside the Footyology offices, we’ll give it a go.
Why has a side which was one extra goal and 100-odd seconds away from a premiership suddenly been relegated to a predicted ladder finish of fifth? Trust us, it’s not about the Magpies so much as their rivals we suspect might have either a slightly higher gear or a bigger scope for improvement.
Remember, too, that Collingwood did finish one and three wins behind the two teams which sat above it on the home and away ladder. It lost five of six clashes against those two opponents, and against all top eight teams, including finals, ended up 3-9.
None of that takes anything away from the Pies’ achievements in 2018. It was a superb year of coaching from Nathan Buckley, and a superb effort from a playing group beset by the absence of key players all season, Collingwood finishing “first” for the most games lost through injuries to its best 22.
I reckon Collingwood is every chance of winning this year’s flag. Just not quite as good a chance as the four teams I have ahead of the Pies. And given that three years ago a team finishing seven on the home and away ladder won a premiership, no, that’s not a contradiction.
The Magpies would have to be stiff to have the same sort of bad luck in the medical room again. That means a number of bonuses, firstly the mere presence of dynamic forward Jamie Elliott, defensive options in Tyson Goldsack, Darcy Moore and Lynden Dunn and a gifted ball user in Daniel Wells.
There’s two important additions to the blend besides. Dayne Beams returns to the fold after four seasons in Brisbane, adding some sizeable cream to a midfield cake already bursting with sweetness via names like Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Treloar, Adams etc, etc.
Jordan Roughead is more important structurally, offering either a key defensive option, or ruck support for Brodie Grundy should the Pies want more bang for their buck with Mason Cox as a forward marking target.
The upside of that shocking injury run last year was that it forced the Pies into an alternative forward set-up in particular which proved a masterstroke, with four dangerous medium-sized forwards in Jordan de Goey, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Josh Thomas and Jaidyn Stephenson alongside keys Cox and a huge surprise packet in Brody Mihocek.
Elliott’s return, theoretically, should make it even more potent. Will that be the reality? Perhaps that’s my one reservation about the numbers of absentees returning to the 2019 mix.
Collingwood of 2018 developed a brilliant chemistry and balance. It exceeded what may have been achieved by an “on paper” best 22 which might not have even featured names like Mihocek, Thomas, Tom Phillips or Brayden Sier.
There will certainly be very healthy competition for spots at the Holden Centre this season, which can only be a good thing. It’s not necessarily a given, however, that the bigger the names lining up for the Pies, the greater their chances.
And after finally settling down a team which functioned brilliantly, coach Nathan Buckley could conceivably find himself having to go through the process all over again.
Of course Collingwood is a big show once again. But this pre-season tipping business can only work on probabilities. And there’s just a few others still who for me seem more probable.
THE PREDICTION
5th. It’s going to be tight at the top. And a few points here and there could conceivably turn fifth into first. And having come so close last season, you can at least guarantee Collingwood isn’t going to die wondering in 2019.
THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
5. COLLINGWOOD
6. ESSENDON
7. NORTH MELBOURNE
8. GEELONG
9. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
10. HAWTHORN
11. SYDNEY
12. BRISBANE LIONS
13. PORT ADELAIDE
14. WESTERN BULLDOGS
15. FREMANTLE
16. CARLTON
17. ST KILDA
18. GOLD COAST
