Hawthorn won a top four spot last season. But can it possibly hold on to it without Tom Mitchell? Photo: GETTY IMAGES

HAWTHORN
2018 record: 15 wins, 9 losses (5th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 1st
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 1st
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 13th

THE INS
Darren Minchington (St Kilda), Jack Scrimshaw (Gold Coast), Tom Scully (GWS), Chad Wingard (Port Adelaide), Jacob Koschitzke (Murray Bushrangers), Matthew Walker (Murray Bushrangers), Damon Greaves (East Perth), Will Golds (Oakleigh Chargers), Tim Mohr (GWS)

THE OUTS
Ty Vickery (retired), Taylor Duryea (Western Bulldogs), Ryan Burton (Port Adelaide), Cyril Rioli (retired), Jonathan O’Rourke (delisted), Kurt Heatherley (delisted), Dallas Willsmore (delisted), Brendan Whitecross (delisted), Kieran Lovell (delisted), Will Langford (retired)

THE BEST 22
B: Blake Hardwick, James Frawley, Ben Stratton
HB: Grant Birchall, James Sicily, Shaun Burgoyne
C: Tom Scully, Jaeger O’Meara, Isaac Smith
HF: Chad Wingard, Jack Gunston, James Worpel
F: Paul Puopolo, Jarryd Roughead, Luke Breust
R: Ben McEvoy, Liam Shiels, Tom Mitchell
Inter: Harry Morrison, Jarman Impey, Daniel Howe, Teia Miles
Emerg: Ricky Henderson, Mitch Lewis, Conor Nash, Kaiden Brand

THE PROGNOSIS
It’s easy to catastrophise about an injury to a key player, but to be perfectly frank, it’s hard to think of another AFL star whose year-long absence will have as profound an impact on his side’s fortunes as the loss of Tom Mitchell for Hawthorn.

Mitchell in 2018 was by some margin the AFL’s leading disposal winner, averaging 35 touches a game. He was No.1 for clearances and behind only Carlton’s Patrick Cripps for contested possession.

What’s just as significant, though, is where’s Hawthorn’s next-best performer in each of those categories ranked across the AFL. Jaeger O’Meara finished second to Mitchell at Hawthorn in each of those categories, but a distant second, O’Meara ranked 51st in the league for disposals, 31st for clearances and 58th for contested ball.

That’s some void to fill. Who fills it? James Worpel is the obvious name which comes to mind. Harry Morrison and James Cousins are two more kids who could help. Then there’s former Port Adelaide star Chad Wingard, who, significantly, had a much better end to last season with the Power once he shifted from small forward to a midfielder.

The other big “if” is Tom Scully, whose presence should he overcome a potentially career-crippling ankle injury will not only help on the ball-winning front, but Hawthorn’s chronic pace deficiency.

The level to which the Hawks can make up Mitchell’s midfield contribution will be critical. Because at either end of the park, things look a lot healthier than they were this time a year ago.

In 2018, the Hawks climbed from 14th to sixth for points scored, and improved even more defensively, conceding fewer inside 50s than any rival, and their points against ranking going from 14th to third, an improvement of more than three goals per game, two younger hands in Blake Hardwick and James Sicily leading the way, along with new skipper Ben Stratton.

The big “if” is the return of Grant Birchall, now 31 and effectively having missed two years of football. But so far, so good, with the veteran eyeing a return at some stage in the first half of the season.

Great seasons last year from Jack Gunston and Luke Breust had much to do with the Hawks’ improved firepower, the pair combining for more than 100 goals. Jarryd Roughead’s five goals in the final JLT hit-out hinted at a better season from the veteran in 2019, and the time Wingard spends near goal is also likely to be productive.

And the Hawks’ most senior hands are still producing. As they need to, given this season Hawthorn will have nine players 30 or older, two more than any other team. It’s the under 25s bracket from which, Sicily and Hardwick aside, Clarkson needs to elicit more this season.

Their improvement would go a long way to bridging the gap between the Hawks and the very best teams in the AFL that became more obvious in their straight sets finals exit.

But without wanting to cast a pall of doom over Hawthorn’s prospects for 2019, the presence of last year’s Brownlow medallist would surely do a whole lot more.

THE PREDICTION
10th. There’s plenty of experience and talent even without Mitchell. But is there the sort of depth a finals aspirant needs with several of the Hawks’ rivals having loaded up on talent for a serious tilt? We have our doubts.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
10. HAWTHORN
11. SYDNEY
12. BRISBANE LIONS
13. PORT ADELAIDE
14. WESTERN BULLDOGS
15. FREMANTLE
16. CARLTON
17. ST KILDA
18. GOLD COAST