Geelong’s Zac Tuohy breaks clear of North Melbourne’s Tarryn Thomas in the Cats’ Round 20 win. GETTY IMAGES
With just three rounds to go in the regular 2021 AFL season, the final eight is really starting to take shape.
Form is going to be a key factor as teams enter the final stages of the season, and with three games to go for all teams involved, this is the time to start finding some form if you want to make it through the finals and into the grand final.
At the top of the table, there are some obvious candidates to make the grand final. The Western Bulldogs and Geelong are battling it out for top spot with Melbourne only two points behind following its recent draw with Hawthorn.
It’s Sydney which is the in-form team right now, however, with five wins on the bounce that has propelled the Swans into fifth place on the ladder and a guaranteed spot in the finals.
Below them on the ladder, the form guide does not look so great for the teams battling it out for the final two places.
Despite its poor end-of-season form, sixth-placed Brisbane has enough points to have already secured a finals spot. Having lost three of their last five games, however, they will want to finish the season well and try to pick up their form as they head into the finals.
There are seven teams battling it out for two finals places. Let’s take a quick look at their current form and their remaining fixtures:
West Coast (7th)
West Coast was one of the pre-season favourites to make the grand final, however, a late-season dip in form means there is no guarantee that the Eagles will make the finals. They currently occupy seventh place on the ladder with 10 wins and nine losses, sitting on 40 points after 19 games. This should be enough to seal their spot, however, they will need to arrest a run of three losses in their last five games if they are to make it. One more win should be enough, although two would guarantee their place.
Remaining fixtures
Melbourne (3rd)
Fremantle (8th)
Brisbane (6th)
Betway Sports currently has the West Coast Eagles at 41.00 to win the Grand Final.
Fremantle (8th)
Fremantle is the other team currently in the top eight, sitting in eighth place with 36 points from 19 games, including nine wins and 10 losses. Like West Coast, the Dockers’ form towards the end of the season has been poor, also recording three losses in their last five games. They have a very similar run-in to West Coast and their final game of the season against St Kilda could be crucial, with the Saints one of the teams with an outside chance of making the finals.
Remaining fixtures
Brisbane (6th)
West Coast (7th)
St Kilda (13th)
Grand Final odds: 126.00
GWS (9th)
Sitting just outside the finals in ninth is GWS on 34 points. The Giants have won eight and drawn one of their 19 games so far this season, with 10 losses. There is a pattern emerging with these mid-table teams, with the Giants also on a run of three losses in their last five games. They will have to turn that form around if they hope to overhaul the two teams above them. They play two of their finals rivals in the last three games of the season, with a tricky fixture against Geelong as well.
Remaining fixtures
Geelong (2nd)
Richmond (11th)
Carlton (12th)
Grand Final odds: 101.00
Essendon (10th)
Continuing the form trend, Essendon’s hopes of making the finals are quickly evaporating following a run of three losses in its past five games and two losses on the bounce. This has put the Bombers in a cluster of four teams all sitting on 32 points and all hoping that the teams above them drop points over the last three rounds of the season. Making the finals would be a huge surprise given their current position. Their next fixture is against the table-topping Bulldogs, however, their last two games are ones they would expect to win, so they retain an outside chance.
Remaining fixtures
Western Bulldogs (1st)
Gold Coast (15th)
Collingwood (14th)
Grand Final odds: 151:00
Richmond
The Tigers will reflect on a very disappointing season and one that is unlikely to bring them a shot at the grand final. Having set the benchmark in the AFL over the past four seasons, the Tigers were widely expected to be challenging for honours again this season. Betway had the Tigers as 4.50 favourites at the start of the season, but a huge dip in form towards the end of the season has really seen their finals hopes almost disappear. They have lost four of their last five games, including damaging defeats against the Suns and Collingwood. They still have the players, and the fixture that could see them win their last three games, however, they would be relying on other teams around them to drop points to have an outside chance of making the finals.
Remaining fixtures
North Melbourne (18th)
GWS (9th)
Hawthorn (17th)
Grand Final odds: 51:00
Carlton (12th)
Carlton is another of the teams sitting on 32 points with three games to play having won eight and losing 11 games this season so far. The Blues’ form heading into the last three games of the season is a little better, having won three and lost two of their last five. It is this inconsistency, however, that sees Carlton scrapping it out for a finals place, the Blues struggling to put a winning run together all season. Their defence has been the biggest problem area, and a tricky run home means it is unlikely we will be seeing Carlton in the finals.
Remaining fixtures
Gold Coast (15th)
Port Adelaide (4th)
GWS (9th)
Grand Final odds: 251.00
St Kilda (13th)
The final team with the most outside chance of making the finals is St Kilda, which also finds itself on 32 points after 19 games with a win-loss ratio of 8-11. The Saints are the team, however, on one of the worst runs of form, having lost their last three games on the bounce, and they are showing no signs currently of making a late charge for the finals. They face the Swans next up, who are the in-form team in the league, and defeat there would end any lingering hopes they might have of extending their season.
Remaining fixtures
Sydney (5th)
Geelong (1st)
Fremantle (8th)
Grand Final odds: 501.00
It’s hard to look past Geelong this season and the Cats will be hoping to avenge their Grand Final defeat in 2020. The AFL Grand Final is set for Saturday 25 September.