(From left): Geelong coach Chris Scott, Richmond’s Damien Hardwick and Hawthorn’s Alastair Clarkson.
Finals, they say, are a different game of football. Which AFL club has stood up in September (and October)? Michelangelo Rucci crunches the numbers.
Geelong premiership coach Chris Scott set us some homework … while doing a fair bit himself to be spared a lecture on finals history.
“Lazy,” bristled Scott after his team’s qualifying final loss, by 16 points to a more accurate and hard-at-it Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, opened this October’s AFL finals series – and the attention inevitably turned to Geelong’s record in finals since its 2011 premiership triumph.
Scott started his AFL senior coaching career with a 3-0 rush to a grand final triumph against that other team that is repeatedly tormented in September, Collingwood (aka Colliwobbles). Since then, the count is 5-12 – with defeat in each of Geelong’s first final of the past four seasons; and no consecutive wins during the major round since the clean sweep in 2011.
The instant conclusion is Geelong – a team with a 69.79 per cent winning record built on 134-2-56 win-draw-loss count since 2011 – has a problem when, as everyone says, football changes in September (or October).
This theme was firmly put away (for now) – and very quickly too – with the 68-point destruction of Collingwood in the lame semi-final at the Gabba on Saturday night.
Clearly, Scott did his homework during the week to avoid the backlash that would have come from a straight-sets exit from the major round after ranking fourth in the home-and-away series.
As for the rest of us … there is still plenty to assess about finals football, well beyond Geelong. But for the moment, let’s stay with Scott. At 5-12 since the 2011 flag, he has worked to a 29.4 per cent strike rate in finals (and 40 per cent in all finals since taking charge at Geelong in 2011).
Not since Neil Craig had such disparity with his winning record from home-and-away and finals has an AFL coach been under so much scrutiny.
Craig won 72 of 110 home-and-away matches while reviving Adelaide with a club-best five consecutive finals series from 2005-2009. But he never took the Crows to a grand final – despite top-two finishes in the 2005 and 2006 minor rounds – while his finals record was 3-6. He was Mr 65 per cent in home-and-away football and Mr 33 per cent in finals, when it mattered most.
After building the model of consistency in home-and-away football, Scott has not had Geelong win consecutive finals since the Cats won the 2011 flag with a 3-0 run in September.
“I think the criticism is a bit lazy, personally,” said Scott at Adelaide Oval, repeating the same defence he has used in earlier testing media conferences when attention turns to his finals record since the flag in his debut season.
In 2011, Geelong ranked second in home-and-away football and defied minor premier Collingwood in the AFL grand final. Since then, Geelong has never again improved its ranking during the finals series.
But Geelong has slipped in six of eight major rounds (2012 losing the elimination final to the lower-ranked Fremantle; 2013, preliminary final to higher-ranked eventual premier Hawthorn; 2014, straight-sets exit on losing semi-final by six points to sixth-ranked North Melbourne; 2016, preliminary final loss to the higher-ranked Sydney; 2017, preliminary final loss to higher-ranked Adelaide; and 2019, as minor premiers, the exit came in the preliminary final to lower-ranked eventual premier Richmond).
In 2018, Geelong was eighth in home-and-away rankings – and stayed there after losing an elimination final to Melbourne. This year, fourth-ranked Geelong cannot place lower than fourth if it loses the preliminary final to Brisbane.
Three times, Geelong has fallen to higher-ranked teams; three times to lower-ranked sides. Once it has stayed true to its ranking. This year, it is still a chance to advance its placing. In the simplest terms, Geelong has not found a new gear in September since the 2011 flag.
“Bar Richmond, if you include the teams that don’t make finals, not too many teams have good finals records,” adds Scott.
So, the homework is done. And who has the best record in September (and October) since this decade began with season 2011?
MOST PREMIERSHIPS: After all, this is the only record the history books remember. Hawthorn, three – all in succession, 2013 to 2015 after losing the 2012 grand final to Sydney.
MOST GRAND FINALS: Hawthorn with four; followed by Sydney with three.
MOST FINALS SERIES: Geelong with nine of a possible 10 (the only miss being in 2015 – and preliminary finals six times; in 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2020). There are podium finishes to Sydney, which qualified for eight consecutive major rounds from 2011 – and claimed one premiership from three grand finals; and also eight finals series for West Coast, with a 1-1 win-loss record in grand finals this decade.
Hawthorn and Richmond have played in seven finals series during the past decade.
“To have 11 top-four finishes since 2007,” says former Western Bulldogs and Richmond coach Terry Wallace, “says so much of Geelong.
“But you then can’t have a record as Geelong has since the 2011 flag that is as poor as it is and not have people speak of it. More so when they have shot themselves in the foot at times,” he adds, referring to key forward Tom Hawkins kicking 0.5 against Port Adelaide in the qualifying final after scoring 0.4 in last year’s qualifying final loss to Collingwood.
BEST WINNING RATE: Indeed Richmond, as Scott said. The semi-final win against St Kilda on Friday night took the winning percentage from 13 finals (8-5) to 61.5 per cent.
“You’re playing the best teams at the end of the year in high-pressure situations; so, if you win it, you come away with a good record,” says Scott.
Next best is three-peat champion Hawthorn at 60 per cent with a 12-8 win-loss record in 20 finals from 2011. The top-four is completed with 2016 AFL premier Western Bulldogs and 2020 minor premier Port Adelaide with a 57 per cent strike rate from a 4-3 win-loss count while playing in just four of a possible 10 finals series.
“The other option,” Scott said of how to build a strong reputation in finals, “is you have a really good year one year and miss the finals three years in a row – that helps your record.”
This is Port Adelaide, with finals appearances in 2014, 2017 and this year. But such inconsistency – that repeatedly put Port Adelaide in the so-called “no man’s land” in 10th spot – was no comfort to senior coach Ken Hinkley, nor did it offer shelter from the critics, despite having the second-best winning percentage in finals this decade.
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Hawthorn premiership master Alastair Clarkson is the most-successful coach of the decade by his count of three premierships. His strike rate in finals this decade? It is 50-50 (10 wins from 20 finals).
WORST FINALS RECORD: Essendon – four elimination finals, four losses and no finals win in September since the 2004 elimination final against Melbourne at the MCG. The last time Essendon won any game in September was the home-and-away closer in 2015 with a three-point win against Collingwood at the MCG on September 6. The Bombers lost all four minor-round games in September this season.
Every other AFL club – bar Gold Coast which has never played finals – has at least one win in September.
MOST REMARKABLE WIN: Carlton in the 2013 finals series. The Blues became the first team to qualify for the top-eight finals after finishing ninth (with an 11-11 win-loss count). Carlton replaced seventh-ranked Essendon after the Bombers were disqualified via the supplements saga of 2012 – and tormented Richmond with a second-half comeback that led to a 20-point win in the elimination final at the MCG.
FINALS ARE DIFFERENT: So everyone keeps saying.
Former Brisbane captain and current Port Adelaide midfielder Tom Rockliff worked through 204 AFL home-and-away games before he stepped out for his first final – the qualifying final at Adelaide Oval that put the spotlight on Scott’s coaching record in finals.
Rockliff was presented advice from a young defender, 2020 All-Australian Darcy Byrne-Jones, who played his first AFL final in his 43rd senior match. He said: “It’s going to be hot early …”
And it stayed that way, according to Rockliff of the qualifying final that opened the tightest first round of a top-eight major round with just 35 points marking the aggregate margin from the two qualifying finals (16 and 15 points) and two elimination finals (three and one).
“There’s no doubt that there’s more pressure and you’ve got to earn your kicks, that’s for sure,” said Rockliff, who on Friday plays in a preliminary final against Richmond at Adelaide Oval – to earn the right to play his first AFL grand final on his old home ground at the Gabba in Brisbane.
Scott this week will stay in Brisbane – where he was a premiership hero with the Lions for two (2001 and 2002) of the “threepeat” flags – to face his former club in a preliminary final, his sixth preliminary final as a coach (with a 1-4 record, 25 per cent). And on that unflattering preliminary final record, Scott says: “I’m trying to find a nice way to say this (rather than ‘lazy’) …. I don’t think it is relevant.”
BEST IN FINALS: VFL-AFL coaches who have 60 per cent or better winning record in the major round with at least 10 finals appearances
A Test cricketer and Fitzroy captain in the 1880s and early 1890s, John Worrall is dubbed the “first coach” in VFL-AFL football for his off-field leadership and mentoring at Carlton from 1902.
In 16 finals at Carlton and Essendon from 1903-1912, Worrall’s teams won 13, including the last 11 in succession. He claimed five VFL premierships – three consecutive flags at Carlton (1906, 1907 and 1908) and two in a row at Essendon (1911 and 1912).
JOHN WORRALL 13-3 81.25 per cent
NORM SMITH 16-8 66.67
MALCOLM BLIGHT 15-8 65.22
LEIGH MATTHEWS 17-1-9 64.81
DENIS PAGAN 14-8 63.64
FRANK HUGHES 18-1-11 61.67
ALASTAIR CLARKSON 16-10 61.54
DAMIEN HARDWICK 8-5 61.5
JOHN KENNEDY 11-7 61.11
JACK BISSETT 6-4 60
NOT IN SEPTEMBER: VFL-AFL coaches with records that have starkly different success rates in home-and-away football and finals
Neil Mann, a Collingwood captain in 1956 and premiership player in 1953, spent 14 years as reserves coach before stepping up to the league role in 1972 as successor to Bob Rose.
In three home-and-away seasons, Mann – who won two matches as the stand-in coach, one in 1960 and one in 1967 – had a 48-1-17 win-draw-loss record from 1972-1974 with his resume including the 1973 minor premiership with a 19-3 count.
But in finals, Mann’s teams crashed in straight sets in 1972 and 1973 and fell out of the 1974 semi-finals. His only finals win from six major round matches was in the 1974 elimination final against Footscray.
NEIL MANN 73.48 per cent 16.67 per cent
BILL GOGGIN 55.86 16.67
DEAN LAIDLEY 50 20
BOB ROSE 60.45 21.43
BARRY CABLE 54.17 25
IVOR WARNE-SMITH 53.89 25
CHRIS CONNOLLY 53.17 25
FRED ELLIOTT 80.49 33.33
TERRY WHEELER 56.25 33.33
KEN SHELDON 55.23 33.33
GARY AYRES 55.21 33.33
NEIL CRAIG 53.57 33.33
GRANT THOMAS 52.56 33.33
BRETT RATTEN 52.16 33.33
ROD OLSSON 50 33.33
RODNEY EADE 50.42 36.84
CHRIS SCOTT 71.96 40
NATHAN BUCKLEY 56.48 41.66
YOUR CLUB IN FINALS THIS DECADE: How the 18 AFL clubs have fared in finals this decade, Season 2011 onwards..
ADELAIDE: 5-5 (50 per cent), 4 finals series, 1 grand final
BRISBANE: 1-2 (33 per cent), 2 finals series
CARLTON: 2-2 (50 per cent), 2 finals series (qualified from ninth in 2013 on exclusion of Essendon for supplements saga)
COLLINGWOOD: 7-9 (44 per cent), 6 finals series, 2 grand finals
ESSENDON: 0-4 (0 per cent), 4 finals series, no finals wins since 2004
FREMANTLE: 5-4 (55 per cent), 4 finals series, 1 grand final
GEELONG: 8-12 (40 per cent), 9 finals series, 1 premiership, 1 grand final
GOLD COAST: Has not qualified for finals
GWS: 6-5 (55 per cent), 4 finals series, 1 grand final
HAWTHORN: 12-8 (60 per cent), 7 finals series, 3 premierships, 4 grand finals
MELBOURNE: 2-1 (66 per cent), 1 finals series
NORTH MELBOURNE: 4-4 (50 per cent), 4 finals series
PORT ADELAIDE: 4-3 (57 per cent), 4 finals series
RICHMOND: 8-5 (61.5 per cent), 7 finals series, 2 premierships, 2 grand finals
ST KILDA: 1-2 (33 per cent), 2 finals series
SYDNEY: 10-10 (50 per cent), 8 finals series, 1 premiership, 3 grand finals
WEST COAST: 9-8 (53 per cent), 8 finals series, 1 premiership, 2 grand finals
WESTERN BULLDOGS: 4-3 (57 per cent), 4 finals series, 1 premiership, 1 grand final
