From left: Departing Collingwood president Eddie McGuire, Geelong recruit Jeremy Cameron, Sydney star Lance Franklin.
Everyone starts at zero again on the AFL premiership ladder. But not everything returns to the “old normal” for season 2021.
Quarters of 20 minutes? Tick. A 22-round fixture? Maybe. A season with no rule changes …? No. Clarity on holding-the-ball? Why spoil the state of confusion. Grand final at the MCG? Possibly. Most likely. Timeslot? Well, that debate is part of the old normal anyway.
List sizes at 17 of the 18 AFL clubs (Gold Coast remains under special concessions) have been cut. So has the salary cap. There is a new second-tier VFL that incorporates the northern AFL clubs that no longer have the NEAFL for their development missions.
More tinkering of rules – the most bizarre being the demand the man on the mark for the kick-in from a behind stand as a statue on a spot or run the risk of a 50-metre penalty. Who will go down in history as the first to be punished?
One of the more off-beat rule changes put on the agenda at AFL House was to punish any player who spoiled a ball over the boundary line with “deliberate”.
And most significantly, season 2021 begins with good people – very good people – out of the game, lost by the COVID-created hits on football budgets. As much as the “old normal” seemed short of the mark with our grand wishes for the game a year ago, it does not appear such a bad thing on the turn to 2021.
AFL headquarters will have clear markers it wishes to achieve in 2021. Club membership figures must hold up and preferably surpass 2019 figures to highlight the game’s resilience. Attendance markers at AFL games need to be free of COVID protocols (fingers crossed on that vaccine). Television ratings certainly need to be strong, along with the commercial spoils to a national sport taking a $100 million black hole out of the pandemic-struck 2020 season.
Some changes from 2020 will linger, particularly on the subsidiary platforms of top-level Australian football. In the media, radio networks have counted the savings of putting commentary teams in studios rather than in planes to sit in commentary boxes at venues.
As ABC commentator and Carlton premiership hero Mark Maclure noted while spending the 2020 season calling AFL matches from a television screen in the ABC studio in Melbourne, “there is money to be saved, particularly in sending commentary teams interstate.”
Soon we will say good riddance to 2020. A new year traditionally sparks new hope. In 2021, a vaccine – to clear away the threat of the COVID virus – will do more to build optimism than uncorking champagne bottles at midnight on Thursday.
And what awaits the 18 AFL clubs in season 2021? Sometimes it is not all about football ….
ADELAIDE
Second-year Crows coach Matthew Nicks would take waking on Monday mornings without the radio bulletins across Adelaide detailing another of his players being stopped by police either for a drug issue or drink-driving.
There is much to be questioned of Adelaide’s culture and leadership, both in the locker room and the front office. This cannot be denied.
New chairman John Olsen wants to be an “agent of change” at a club that collected its first wooden spoon last season while opening the premiership campaign with a 13-game losing streak. Critically, Olsen wants to have the Crows succeed in the “business of football” rather than be seen as a business – a corporate monolith in a city where Adelaide’s on-field results influence seemingly everyone’s mood.
And there is still that infamous 2018 pre-season camp on the Gold Coast haunting the club while the SA government’s WorkSafe investigation team complete State Premier Steve Marshall’s call to deliver a truly independent review on the event that was supposed to connect a football team but instead divided a club.
So the key wish at Adelaide – in its 30th anniversary year – is to build a football team that can repeatedly compete to make 2021 about on-field chatter. How the mighty do fall!
In a word: Peace
BRISBANE
How many games – more so than how many goals – must Essendon recruit Joe Daniher deliver to justify Brisbane’s big move to secure the injury hindered key forward?
Brisbane has repositioned itself beautifully. First, it stopped the talent drain, particularly with top-end draftees who are eagerly signing new contracts rather than seeking new homes across the league.
It has built a solid football program fronted by pragmatic senior coach Chris Fagan. It has attracted star players – Charlie Cameron, Lachie Neale, who became a Brownlow medallist as a Lion, and now Daniher.
It has become a repetitive finalist for the first time since the “three-peat” era in the early 2000s. It won a final this year. It just continues as smooth sailing to paradise, doesn’t it? What do they say of Queensland? Beautiful one day, ….
In a word: Roaring
CARLTON
At some stage a club – and its AFL team – needs to live up to the hype. All credit to Carlton for delivering new hope to a fan base that has not watched its senior team play in an AFL final since 2013 (when from ninth spot it replaced the supplements-scarred Essendon in the top eight) and has collected five wooden spoons since its last flag in 1995.
As a Carlton premiership captain Mark Maclure noted during the year: “You think a wooden spoon is a problem? We have collected more wooden spoons than ever before at Carlton (the first in the club’s history in 2002 followed by four more in 2005, 2006, 2015 and 2018) … and we have more members than ever.”
Hype creates hope. But eventually an AFL club needs to deliver on rising expectation.
In a word: Win
COLLINGWOOD
Eddie is going. After dramatically changing the Collingwood Football Club from the start of his presidency in 1999, McGuire is done at the end of 2021.
It has been a significant turnaround for a high-profile club that in 1999 had major debt, was ranked 16th of 16 to collect only its second wooden spoon, and was struggling to adapt from VFL themes to AFL national agendas.
McGuire took Collingwood from Victoria Park to the MCG; from Holden’s cars in the car park to Lexus by valet; from blue collar Yakka to Italian-crafted silk of Gucçi … And to just one premiership (2010, after a grand final replay).
So it is pretty clear what would mark the perfect send-off for president McGuire. Collingwood should be grateful if it can get through the year without more turmoil on and off the field. Hail Eddie … for the last time.
In a word: Caesar (and not the salad)
ESSENDON
There is just one senior coach at Essendon next season – the novice Ben Rutten, who is under great pressure to clearly define what appears to be a much-confused flight plan for the Bombers.
“Blue collar” and “defence” as early pointers from Rutten – who was all this in his 229 games as an Adelaide full back – might be challenging for the marketing department to dress up in a mesmerising membership drive.
One coach, with the departure of John Worsfold, but still many castles with so many would-be emperors make Essendon appear as a club needing unity rather than multiple saviours.
The return (at board level) of Kevin Sheedy, the Essendon premiership coach who revived a club and changed the game itself, will ensure nothing is dull with the Bombers. Hopefully, the magic rubs on to Rutten, the man known as “Truck” – a blue-collar defensive soldier from Adelaide, where he was known for his work rather than his words.
In a word: Noisy
FREMANTLE
Comedians might have to give Western Australia’s other AFL team a rest for a while. After their best placing since the minor premiership in 2015, the oft-lampooned purple Dockers appear to be in a safe harbour and plotting a reassuring new passage to success.
First-year coach Justin Longmuir delivered new optimism with a 7-10 win-loss record that positioned Fremantle 12th of 18. He appears a coach who can lead young men with a clear mission statement.
The headline-dominating Jesse Hogan has gone (to Greater Western Sydney) leaving little for the Perth scribblers put on daily watch along the south side of the Swan River.
In a word: Mundane (for a change)
GEELONG
THEY just keep loading up at Kardinia Park. Under the Christmas tree there are some big packages to ensure Geelong avoids adding to the recent trend of watching recent losing AFL grand finalists (in particular, Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney) fall into holes.
The gains of key forward Jeremy Cameron (GWS), forward Shaun Higgins (North Melbourne after Western Bulldogs) and midfielder Isaac Smith (Hawthorn) ensures Geelong will continue to play the game “the way it should be played”.
And the Cats do appear to have a hold on one top-eight finals berth each season. But does a club want to be ultra-competitive or successful (as measured by premierships)? Coach Chris Scott is expected to retain the title of AFL coach with the longest press conferences … but not necessarily the ones that deliver the most insight.
In a word: Poised
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GOLD COAST
We will leave all thoughts on Gold Coast to be summed up by the Queensland club’s grand chairman, Tony Cochrane: “Opinions are like arseholes. Everyone’s got one.”
Next season marks Gold Coast’s 11th in the big league in which its best result is 10-12, to rank 12th, in season 2014. In no other season have the Suns managed double figures in the win column on the premiership table, where they have ranked in the bottom four in seven of 10 seasons.
The unveiling of their Team of the Decade will be fascinating … and will certainly drive more opinion. Over to you, Tony.
In a word: Waiting
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
Even Santa would be pleading with GWS coach Leon Cameron to let the Giants play to their strengths, particularly with speed in their game.
Here is a squad that terrorised opponents – and reached the 2019 AFL grand final – when it played fast-paced football with staggering command of the midfield.
But Cameron last year applied the brakes on his talented men to work a conservative playbook designed around making the half-back line the launching pad to … nowhere. Whatever happened to that “big, big sound from the west end of town”?
In a word: Bizarre
HAWTHORN
It is worth signing a Hawthorn membership form to ensure being on the mailing list for club president Jeff Kennett’s regular bulletins.
Coach Alastair Clarkson has once before built a premiership dynasty from the lowest depths of mediocrity at Hawthorn, but the system was not so compromised in the AFL recruiting landscape in 2004 as it is today.
His mantra of demanding players who can kick is a good starting point. Now we will see just how good the Hawthorn football department is. In the meantime, there is Jeff. Those “state of the nation” messages might be more entertaining than anything Hawthorn offers on the field.
In a word: Wind (as in hot air)
MELBOURNE
Perhaps Melbourne president Glen Bartlett – the man who this year declared “when you pull on a Melbourne jumper, we don’t give them out in Weeties packets; you have to show respect for the jumper” – found something significant in his Christmas cracker.
Maybe a strategic plan to match the vision crafted by Richmond chief executive Brendon Gale a decade ago to end the mockery of his club. Melbourne might well be compared to Richmond from that era of supposedly holding a monopoly on ninth spot on the AFL ladder.
Melbourne has ranked ninth, 17th, fifth, ninth and 11th in the past five seasons. It has appeared in just one finals series (in 2018) since 2006, and the Demons have placed in the bottom four in seven of 14 seasons. No wonder you won’t find anything of the Melbourne Football Club in your breakfast cereal box.
In a word: Soggy
NORTH MELBOURNE
David Noble scored his Christmas present early (or late if you argue his long-held dream to be an AFL senior coach could have/should have been answered much earlier).
Noble was tracking to an AFL club chief executive appointment – most possibly Adelaide, where he had served in every key role of its football department – before Sydney premiership mentor and former Fitzroy teammate Paul Roos made sure Noble fulfilled his first dream … to be an AFL senior coach.
Noble’s arrival at Arden Street also saved Roos from being asked to restore another club (as he did at Melbourne). Expectation will not be overwhelming. Avoiding the wooden spoon in 2021 will be the first significant achievement.
In a word: Spoon
PORT ADELAIDE
Port Adelaide has not played in consecutive AFL finals series since the start of the Ken Hinkley era in 2013-2014.
Expectation is high among a brutally demanding supporter base that eagerly wants to win on the national stage – but also craves the opportunity to make major gains in the local market while the intown rival Adelaide is in pain and creating headlines the bigger South Australian club would prefer to avoid.
Season 2020 – with a minor premiership after leading the race from start to its truncated finish – was a reassuring pointer that Hinkley has a squad that can command a top-four finish in 2021.
But with no flag at any level for almost two decades – none in the AFL since 2004; none in the SANFL since 1999 – those traditionally impatient Port Adelaide supporters have probably stopped believing in Santa. But do they believe in Kenny again?
In a word: Expectation
RICHMOND
When does admiration – that replaced mocking Richmond – turn to envy? When does the AFL system designed to drag down ultra-successful teams begin to kick in, making Richmond vulnerable by the way of late draft picks and a salary cap that defies highly achieving players expecting greater financial rewards?
Three premierships by 2020 was the goal – mission accomplished. So what would Richmond chief executive Brendon Gale have wanted to unwrap during the 12 days of Christmas?
A blueprint to the next phase that avoids Richmond stepping back in time (to the 1980s in particular) to return to the world of mediocrity would be ideal. Having kept Neil Balme from making a move to Adelaide will help.
In a word: Hubris (as in to avert it)
ST KILDA
Anyone at St Kilda own a calculator? The feel-good story of 2020 (a year that certainly needed heart-warming tales) was the successful return by Brett Ratten to senior coaching seven years after his home club Carlton made the wrong call to sack him.
The dramatic contrast between the Saints and Blues is in how Ratten today is being supported in the football department, particularly with ambitious recruiting missions led by the well-travelled Graeme Allan.
He is the right-hand man to St Kilda list manager James Gallagher, a former banker and former Crows player.
The recent list challenges at Brisbane, Collingwood and Greater Western Sydney – where Allan was a key figure in the refit of the player lists – would suggest Gallagher keep an eye on the long game and not just the immediate need to make St Kilda a premiership challenger.
In a word: Ambitious (and needing prudence)
SYDNEY
How is “Buddy”? How pleased would Sydney coach John Longmire be if his high-profile power forward – who did not play an AFL game in 2020 while troubled by hamstring and groin injuries – completes a solid pre-season campaign?
He will think all his Christmases have come at once. Lance Franklin will be 34 next month, and starting his 17th year in the big league – and eighth season of that mega nine-year $10 million contract.
“Our main aim at the moment is getting him really strong through the core; in the best possible shape and (with) the strongest possible foundation before we get to the real strong running phase, which we hope will be in January,” says Longmire of the key forward who has given the Swans profile in a key market, a superb focal point to finish its admirable contested game, but still no flag.
No team should be built on just one player. But a club’s new season’s hopes certainly can be! And this is “Buddy” … no ordinary player.
In a word: Buddy!
WEST COAST
West Coast had its latest finish to an AFL season – October 3 – since 2015, when it lost the grand final to Hawthorn by 46 points on … October 3.
Adam Simpson’s team has played in seven consecutive AFL finals series while also being one of the most-strained AFL sides when it comes to draining long-haul travel.
Being in an oasis on the western side of Australia does come with a price – and the Eagles have shown signs of fatigue when there needed to be greater lift of the wings. And there are still those questions about regularly training and playing on a leg-draining field with a concrete foundation at the $1.6 billion Perth Stadium.
West Coast most probably is not a fan of “footy frenzy” – condensed fixtures with rapid-fire turnarounds in games – being part of season 2021.
In a word: Recharge
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Eventually the surprise success of 2016 has to be measured against the failure to deliver when expected in the follow-up seasons, in particular this year, when the Western Bulldogs were regarded by many fine judges as a top-four contender.
They again fell out of the race by losing an elimination final (in dramatic circumstances against St Kilda).
The Christmas stocking was jammed full – Adam Treloar from Collingwood, Stefan Martin from Brisbane, Mitch Hannan from Melbourne and teenager Jamarra Ugle-Hagan from Adelaide’s hands at the No.1 call in the national draft.
And Josh Dunkley did not escape to Essendon. It is time for more bite than bark as Bulldogs, particularly with that midfield!
In a word: Do!
As usual, in still unusual times, there will be just one recognised winner in 2021. Many judges will, as usual, break the 18-team competition into three categories: contenders (Richmond, Geelong, Brisbane and Port Adelaide being the most likely in a repeat of this year’s top four), pretenders and the short-lived also rans (Adelaide and North Melbourne are the most obvious).
A new season brings new hope at every AFL club when the premiership table is reset at zero for each of the 18 teams, but perhaps not a new agenda for some of the aspirants.
Happy New Year.
