From left, Collingwood’s Scott Pendlebury, Charlie Dixon of Port Adelaide, Brisbane’s Charlie Cameron and Melbourne’s Christian Petracca

The AFL ladder right now is like a CBD intersection at 5pm on a Friday, a heaving mass of traffic seemingly moving in several different directions at once with room to move.

There’s only seven rounds remaining, but no fewer than 15 of 18 teams all with realistic finals prospects. There’s only one prize, though, and in terms of picking a likely flag winner, there’s a lot of fool’s gold out there.

So who really has a serious chance this September? This is how I’ve got them grouped heading into Round 18.

LADIES & GENTLEMEN, YOUR GRAND FINALISTS…
We’ve seen more obvious grand final pairings a lot closer to finals than this come unstuck over the years, but barring unforeseen calamities, you’d think the Pies and Power are looking pretty good to be battling out an AFL grand final for the first time.

Collingwood hardly needs its credentials argued anymore. The Magpies are strong defensively, resourceful up forward, extremely well coached by Craig McRae, and in 38 statistical categories covered by Champion Data, rank top six in no fewer than 16, at worst middle tier the rest.

Impressive. Not to mention a skill level across the board I’m not sure I’ve seen matched by Collingwood premiership sides of the past. Watching the Daicos brothers, De Goey, Elliott, Hill, Johnson and co. perform party tricks is like watching AFL’s version of the Harlem Globetrotters at times.

Port Adelaide, meanwhile, is already a far different proposition to the side Collingwood smashed by 71 points on the MCG in round two, 13 wins in a row the tale of the tape.

Like the Pies, Ken Hinkley’s team is proving mentally tough in the tight finish, having been involved in seven games this season decided by 14 points or less and winning all of them.

Port is powered (pardon the pun) by its dynamic young tyros Zak Butters and Connor Rozee and genuine midfield class offered by Ollie Wines, Dan Houston, Jason Horne-Francis and co., and is a terrific territory team, locking the ball in opponents’ defensive 50.

Port’s Round 19 clash with Collingwood really is a potential grand final preview.

COULD DO IT, BUT THINGS HAVE TO GO RIGHT…
I’ve thought this about Brisbane for its entire five-season resurgence under Chris Fagan, to be honest, and not necessarily with any satisfaction, because the Lions are great to watch at their best.

But regardless of how impressively they beat up at home on weak opposition, I still don’t have trust in them to win when and most importantly where it counts, simple as that.

Yes, Brisbane did beat Melbourne in a final at the MCG last year. But the Lions followed that up a week later with a 71-point belting at the same venue, and their only appearance there this season produced a loss to lowly Hawthorn. That’s 13 defeats from 14 starts over a decade, not how a premiership side rolls.

I’ve had a bit more faith in Melbourne, arguably the residue of 2021’s premiership fairytale, but increasingly it’s feeling to me like the Demons are having one of those seasons where you keep waiting for everything to click, but it never quite does.

That’s most obvious in the injuries to Clayton Oliver and now Bayley Fritsch, but also in its forward line struggles in general.

I always think Ben Brown is more important to the Dees than many realise. It was his return to top form which catapulted Melbourne from contender to champion status late in 2021, and even more so than then given Fritsch’s absence, they desperately need him to step up.

GOOD ENOUGH ON THEIR DAY…
This category could easily also be called “experience counts”. Geelong, obviously, needs no explanation here, and the Cats’ best is still a huge hurdle for most opponents to get over.

Is that best at a lesser level now, though? Results so far in 2023 might provide a pointer here, the Cats good enough to deal with up-and-comers like Essendon and Adelaide by a few goals, but coming up short against both Collingwood and Port Adelaide.

PLEASE HELP US CONTINUE TO THRIVE BY BECOMING AN OFFICIAL FOOTYOLOGY PATRON. JUST CLICK THIS LINK.

That could apply equally to the Western Bulldogs, too, who have pushed Port twice whilst still falling short (by 14 and 22 points), then last Friday night Collingwood, losing to the Pies by 12 points.

In both cases, it feels like a bit of a pattern of “good, but not quite good enough against the very best is emerging. Perhaps either the Cats or Dogs could pull one out of the box and revive memories of their absolute best. The big issue is that in September, you need to produce that three times in a row at least.

ON THE UP, BUT NOT QUITE THERE YET …
Were the 2023 season to end now, you suspect Essendon, St Kilda and Adelaide would all take the portfolios of work produced thus far.

All have had stirring wins, Adelaide knocking over bitter local rival Port Adelaide and upended Brisbane, Essendon beating Melbourne and Richmond in a “Dreamtime Game” comeback, the Saints beating the Bulldogs and pushing Collingwood to within a kick.

You do feel with all three, though, that their best is far more likely to be ahead of them, with whatever tangible ground can be made this season a bonus.

What will help expedite that process is for the Bombers, finding a second reliable key forward target alongside Peter Wright, for the Saints a decent offensive side to go with their effective enough defensive systems, and for the Crows some frustratingly elusive consistency on the road, last Sunday’s defeat to Essendon a good example of the too-large gap between their best and worst.

FINALS NOT BEYOND THEM BUT WILL BE THERE FOR THE RIDE …
Even this group has an important demarcation within it. This status for Greater Western Sydney, given the Giants were almost universally tipped as a bottom four or five team under first-year coach Adam Kingsley, is a real pat on the back.

The Giants have been unerringly competitive, not only winning five of their past six games and losing the other by only a kick, but seven of their eight losses coming by just 21 points or less. They have great upside.

Carlton, in contrast, while still a decent finals chance, will be far from happy about being in this position given pre-season expectations. Ditto Richmond, which some of us (guilty, your honour) thought might bounce back all the way to at least a grand final.

And an actual grand finalist of last year in Sydney? Well, the Swans have had a shocking run of injuries to structurally important players (mainly talls), but the excitement factor as much as anything seems to have drained out of John Longmire’s team. No September soup for you, Swans.

WOULDN’T TRUST THEM AS FAR AS YOU COULD THROW THEM …
Gold Coast and Fremantle. Honestly, it’s like Groundhog Day with these two. Every time tangible ground seems to have been gained, it’s immediately given back with an insipid showing. Again and again and again.

The Suns had a stirring couple of wins in Darwin, but were so poor in a big occasion at home against Collingwood the other week it felt like no ground had been made in 10 years. The obvious consequence of that came on Tuesday when the Suns sacked Stuart Dew as coach. That was as good as pulling the pin on the season.

Freo? So it’s a young list. So what? Adelaide and Essendon have younger lists, and they’re going OK. It’s four losses from five games now, and that smacking at the hands of Carlton at home ominous for its lack of spirit.

LET’S MOVE ON, SHALL WE …
Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast. The Hawks will get there, some obvious things to like in 2023. Roos? Too many periods where they’re just uncompetitive, and ageing leaders becoming a worry. Eagles? On or off the field, it’s a mess, one which won’t be easily fixed.

This article first appeared at ESPN.