The game’s up for Donald Trump. But where will the US (both Democrats and Republicans) head politically under Joe Biden?

In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s attempts to overthrow the result of last November’s election in the United States, what can we expect of Joe Biden and what will happen to the GOP (Republican Party)?

Biden will only be a disappointment to those naive enough to think he isn’t “Obama-light” and part of the DNC (Democratic National Convention) establishment.

To others who couldn’t stand Trump’s vulgarity, lies and corruption, he will be a do-nothing relief and a return to normal transmission: imperial priorities, more wars, interventions and drones, and a resumption of greater fidelity to Washington’s allies who were either neglected or abandoned by Trump.

Biden is incapable of micro-management and will delegate (a la Ronald Reagan) to those who want their pre-2016 jobs back. The majority of those already tapped on the shoulder are Barack Obama and HRC (Hilary Clinton) re-treads such as Susan Rice and Samantha Power.

They will continue Trump’s broad approach to Israel, Russia and China, though with different rhetoric and better manners.

Washington will keep its embassy in Jerusalem, in violation of international law, and make ineffectual noises about a non-existent “peace process” as Israel expands its colonies in the West Bank.

Vladimir Putin will remain persona non grata in Washington and the sanctions and restrictions Trump imposed on Russia will be maintained. The rise of China will be invoked to further increase the Pentagon’s budget and fill the pockets of Biden’s donors in the military-industrial sector.

There will be more interest in East Asia, which Trump (with the exception of North Korea) ignored or antagonised. Biden will be less interested in conflict with Iran and may return to the nuclear agreement negotiated by Obama and John Kerry (the JCPOA).

This explains why both the Benjamin Netanyahu-led government in Israel and Trump’s Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are doing everything they can in Trump’s final days to lock Biden into a more aggressive posture towards Tehran. Wisely, the mullahs are not taking their bait.

Biden will recommit to NATO, the World Health Organisation (WHO), the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the Paris environment agreement: he will be more multilateral and less nationalistic or unilateral compared to his predecessor.

Given that Trump effectively denied the reality of climate change and couldn’t produce a health insurance policy to replace Obamacare, Biden will be viewed as more active in these policy areas even though outcomes are likely to see only modest improvements.

The left within the Democrats will push hard for meaningful changes, driven by increasingly dire forecasts from climate scientists and the catastrophic impact of COVID-19, which Trump neglected to his electoral cost. Importantly for countries such as Australia, South Korea and China, Biden will be less protectionist than Trump.

Given how close Scott Morrison was to Trump, Australia should not expect to be a high priority for the incoming administration.

Expect a coolish breeze from Washington, at least initially. Morrison is likely to be outflanked and pressured on climate change by Biden (and his environment czar Kerry) as Tony Abbott was by Obama, though the prime minister has already indicated that he is happy for Australia’s reputation as a climate change laggard to continue.

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This would be a good time for Canberra to reset its relationship with Beijing, which seemed to be designed to ingratiate the LNP with Trump, before even more damage is done to the bilateral trade relationship.

There are few signs coming out of Canberra that the LNP even has an endgame in mind after unleashing 12 months of Sinophobia: for our exports to our largest market, it’s been nothing but an escalating series of own goals.

Julian Assange is unlikely to be pardoned by either Trump, who will give priority to himself and his family in his final week, or Biden: his best hope is that Biden abandons the extradition case because he doesn’t want to inherit a controversial and possibly unsuccessful prosecution of a well-known, award-winning journalist.

However, this might not please the Deep State (the Pentagon, arms industries and intelligence community) to whom Biden is very close, and who want to make an example of Assange to deter future whistle-blowers. Biden has previously called Assange a “high-tech terrorist”.

Initially, at least, Biden will get a lot of mileage out of simply not being Trump. This will cover up a multitude of sins and inevitable screw ups.

The Republicans, meanwhile, will bifurcate into pro-Trump statist reactionaries and anti-Trump conservatives.

The former are a diminishing group, especially after the attempted coup on January 6, and the possibility of impeachment will force them to show their hands in Congress. Expect to hear lots of recriminations, especially after losing control of the Senate at the recent Georgia run-offs.

Further leaks about chaos, corruption and dysfunctional management during Trump’s four years are sure to come from the Deep State and other embittered insiders currently sniffing out book deals and exclusive interviews. Importantly, this means Trump will not be the Republican kingmaker for 2024 even if he isn’t formally impeached in the Senate.

While Trump battles numerous legal cases and seeks out another reality TV deal, Pompeo, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley and Marco Rubio will position themselves early for a 2024 run against Kamala Harris, assuming Biden will be too impaired for a second term.

They will first need to re-write their history with Trump, a delicate balance to walk given they will need the powerful evangelical wing of the party and not want to lose too much of Trump’s MAGA base.

How to portray their association with a diminished and discredited former president who refused to recognise the legitimacy of the election result will be a major challenge for those who joined him in denial. It won’t be easy for any of them, especially if Biden is astute enough to pardon Trump after he is impeached.

Meanwhile, in Australia, the local US lobby will say Trump was an aberration, just as they said of George W Bush. They will try to distinguish “the alliance” from the White House incumbent. However, there is one question they will struggle to answer: what sort of party, political system and country keeps producing leaders like Donald J. Trump?