Eddie Betts and Jack Newnes celebrate the latter’s match winner against Fremantle last season. Photo: GETTY IMAGES

CARLTON
2020 record: 7 wins, 10 losses (11th)

THE INS
Zac Williams (GWS), Adam Saad (Essendon), Lachie Fogarty (Geelong), Corey Durdin (Central District), Jack Carroll (East Fremantle), Luke Parks (Glenelg)

THE OUTS
Matthew Kreuzer (retired), Kade Simpson (retired), Darcy Lang (delisted), Cameron Polson (delisted), Callum Moore (delisted), Hugh Goddard (delisted), Ben Silvagni (delisted), Finbar O’Dwyer (delisted), Harrison Macreadie (delisted), Fraser Phillips (delisted)

THE STRENGTHS
The Blues took another step forward last year, in what seems to be one of the longest rebuilds in modern AFL history, by becoming a harder team to beat. Look no further than their percentage of 94.3 compared to their 2019 figure of 84.5. Their grit was perhaps best reflected in their vastly-improved ability to hang on in tight games, finishing with a 4-2 record in games decided by less than a goal after only managing 1-4 the season prior. Carlton didn’t get beaten by more than 31 points, which is a far cry from the previous six years. In co-captain Patrick Cripps, they have one of the best midfielders in the competition and it looks as though he’s slowly but surely starting to get the help he needs with Sam Walsh coming on in leaps and bounds. Harry McKay looks as though he’s on the verge of entering the elite bracket of key forwards in the next 12-24 months, while Jack Martin and Jack Newnes proved to be a couple of inspired pick-ups. And Carlton’s impressive recruiting spree has continued this year with a pair of rolled-gold acquisitions in Williams and Saad added to the list, as well as the promising Fogarty. Carlton’s inside work was solid in 2020, too, finishing the season ranked fifth in clearances and sixth in contested possessions on differentials.

THE WEAKNESSES
However, again, one of the Blues’ major problems last year was what they did with the ball once they won it. Despite finishing 11th on the ladder, Carlton was ranked fourth for inside 50s, but the Blues failed to take advantage of that, only ranked 11th for marks inside 50 on differentials. And when it came to totals, the Blues were 13th for scores per inside 50 and in the bottom four for goals per inside 50 (15th). This led to Carlton having only the ninth-best attack in the competition, while its defence was also ranked a lowly 13th. The Blues’ forward line definitely looks shaky still, with Charlie Curnow’s return date an unknown, high-profile recruit Mitch McGovern failing to fire, Levi Casboult turning 31 before the start of the year, and Eddie Betts on his last legs. And despite the rise of Walsh, Cripps is still very much playing a lone hand in the middle. That’s one of the reasons Williams was brought to the club, to give the co-captain a chop-out in the middle as well as give drive off half-back. With Marc Murphy and Ed Curnow also on the wrong side of 30, Carlton needs the likes of Will Setterfield, Matthew Kennedy, Paddy Dow and Lochie O’Brien to really stand up and be counted. Also, when you finish the year 12th for disposals on differentials yet can only register 11th for tackles, something is fundamentally wrong, and the Blues will have to work hard over the summer to get that balance right. Of their seven wins, only two were against finalists – Geelong and the Bulldogs.

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ONE TO WATCH
After five years in the system, 23-year-old McKay looks ready to explode. In a struggling team last year, despite missing four games, the key forward led the club’s goalkicking with 21, including a four-goal haul and three bags of three, and finished equal second for contested marks (22). Along with Casboult (30), he was one of the main reasons Carlton was ranked third for contested marks in the AFL on differentials. With Charlie Curnow set to miss a big chunk of the year again in 2021, the scene is set for McKay to flourish.

UNDER THE PUMP
Another player that will benefit from Charlie Curnow’s absence is McGovern. The former Crow has been underwhelming since crossing to Princes Park in 2019, with his professionalism coming into question at times due to his lack of fitness. Last year, he only managed nine goals from 12 games, averaging just seven touches and three marks a game. For the amount of money he is on, that is quite simply not good enough. If his form trajectory continues along a downward trend next season, he could find himself looking for a new club.

BEST 22
B: Caleb Marchbank, Jacob Weitering, Sam Petrevski-Seton
HB: Sam Docherty, Liam Jones, Adam Saad
C: Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps, Zac Williams
HF: Jack Martin, Mitch McGovern, Michael Gibbons
F: Eddie Betts, Harry McKay, Levi Casboult
R: Marc Pittonet, Ed Curnow, Marc Murphy
Inter: Lachie Plowman, Jack Newnes, Will Setterfield, Zac Fisher
Emerg: David Cuningham, Tom Williamson, Tom De Koning, Matthew Kennedy

Not only is the backline bolstered with the additions of star duo Williams and Saad, but Marchbank (knee) also returns after missing the whole 2020 season, and so does Nic Newman (knee), who only played two games. Newman isn’t in the 26 for now, but he has shown good enough form before to suggest he could change that very quickly. Ordinarily, Charlie Curnow would be a walk-up start into this Carlton team, but after suffering his fifth serious knee injury in the space of just 17 months, the club says he won’t be available until mid-year – and who knows if he actually will be fit by then, or indeed take any part in season 2021. So as a result, he has been left out for now. That means McGovern gets a reprieve, because based on his output last year, he shouldn’t be anywhere near Carlton’s best 22. Fogarty has only managed eight games since his impressive debut year with Geelong in 2018, but he will also be thereabouts at the selection table in 2021.