Carlton youngster Ollie Hollands looks set to go from strength to strength after an impressive 2023 debut season. Photo: GETTY IMAGES

CARLTON
2023 record: 15 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw (3rd)

THE INS
Orazio Fantasia (Port Adelaide), Elijah Hollands (Gold Coast), Ashton Moir (Glenelg), Billy Wilson (Dandenong Stingrays), Matt Carroll (Sandringham Dragons), Rob Monahan (Kerry – GAA), Matt Duffy (Longford – GAA)

THE OUTS
Ed Curnow (retired), Zac Fisher (North Melbourne), Paddy Dow (St Kilda), Josh Honey (delisted), Lachie Plowman (retired), Lochie O’Brien (delisted), Sam Philp (delisted)

THE STRENGTHS
Self-belief and mental strength are in abundance at Princes Park after the Blues completed one of the most remarkable in-season turnarounds in modern AFL history in 2023. Carlton was languishing in the bottom four after Round 15 last year, but dusted itself off to win nine games in a row and storm into the finals series, where it made it all the way to a preliminary final. Michael Voss’ men now know they can come back from any position at any point in the season, no matter how dire their situation is, as long as they remain a mathematical finals hope. That is a massive psychological asset to have heading into a new campaign. The incredible resurgence was built off their stacked midfield featuring star ball winners Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh, Blake Acres and George Hewett. Thanks largely to their efforts, last year the Blues ranked first for contested possessions, second for disposals and third for clearances. And up forward they have the sensational Charlie Curnow finishing off their good work. Curnow won his second Coleman in a row last year with a career-best 78 goals, but only added three more to that tally in what was a very quiet finals series for him. Curnow has a potent fleet of small forwards supporting him featuring Jack Martin, Jesse Motlop and Matthew Owies, and if fellow Coleman winner Harry McKay can return to form in 2024, that spells a lot of danger for opposition defences. The Blues ranked third for scores per inside 50 last year, so you can imagine how much more potent they could become if they lifted their standing of eighth for inside 50s. Their backline is also a force to be reckoned with, with the stellar Jacob Weitering the centrepiece, Sam Docherty, Nic Newman and Adam Saad all coming off career-best years, and the reintroduction of Zac Williams who missed all of last year due to a ruptured ACL. Young ruckman Tom De Koning is also coming off a breakout season, and he now forms an effective tandem with Marc Pittonet. Carlton’s tall timber of Curnow, Weitering, McKay, Brodie Kemp, Mitch McGovern and De Koning was a big reason behind its No.1 ranking for contested marks in 2023.

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THE WEAKNESSES
One of the biggest challenges facing Carlton is that aforementioned self-belief backfiring and lulling the Blues into a false sense of security. They simply cannot afford to have a slow start like the one they had last year which saw them win just four of their first 13 games. The second half of the season proved they are much better than that. Considering their preliminary final was played in Brisbane rather than Melbourne, you could argue that their sluggish first half of the year cost them a grand final spot, and from there who knows what they might have done. A “she’ll be right” attitude will be unacceptable if the losses start piling up again. They have to be switched on from the get-go, because as the competition gets tighter with each passing year, the tiny one-percenters can ultimately be the difference between a double chance and the scenic route to the grand final. They must not revert back to the slow, predictable, turgid ball movement that dogged the first half of 2023, otherwise another season will be flushed down the toilet. Curnow finished with 81 goals last year, but Carlton’s goalkickers dropped away dramatically after that with the next best McKay on 29. Becoming less Curnow-conscious could help take the Blues deeper into the season because although they won their first two finals, those games could’ve gone either way, and like in the preliminary final against Brisbane, Curnow was blanketed by the Swans and Demons.

ONE TO WATCH
Ollie Hollands hit the ground running in his first year, playing 19 games, including two finals. While he didn’t have the biggest impact in September, the young wingman showed more than enough over the course of the year to suggest he is headed for big things. He averaged 14 touches a game, and displayed impressive skills and footy smarts consistently. The dreaded second-year blues can afflict even the best of youngsters, but this kid appears to have a good head on his shoulders, so expect him to have an even bigger impact in 2024.

UNDER THE PUMP
The microscope will be magnified more than ever on McKay, and rightly so. While he still managed to play some important games in 2023, overall he fell well below what is expected of him as one of the league’s best key forwards. His return of 29 majors was his worst since 2019 (excluding the COVID-impacted 2020 season). His struggles in the first half of last season, in particular, were emblematic of Carlton’s disastrous start to the year. He is going to have to find a way to coexist with Curnow more effectively, or else he can expect the heat to be dialled up on him even more in the first year of his monstrous new seven-year contract.

BEST 22
B: Caleb Marchbank, Jacob Weitering, Nic Newman
HB: Sam Docherty, Brodie Kemp, Adam Saad
C: Blake Acres, Patrick Cripps, Matt Cottrell
HF: Matthew Owies, Harry McKay, Jesse Motlop
F: Jack Martin, Charlie Curnow, Mitch McGovern
R: Tom De Koning, Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh
Inter: George Hewett, Marc Pittonet, Zac Williams, Ollie Hollands
Emerg: Matthew Kennedy, Alex Cincotta, Lachie Fogarty, David Cuningham

Silvagni’s loss for the entirety of 2024 with an ACL reduces the Blues’ flexibility, and might mean Mitch McGovern spends a lot more time forward. Mature-age recruit Alex Cincotta might have been one of the feelgood stories of 2023, playing 19 games, including all three finals, after being added to Carlton’s list in the supplemental selection period to replace Williams. But now that Williams is nearing full fitness again, Cincotta loses his spot in the best 22. And while Brodie Kemp was overlooked in favour of Jordan Boyd for the preliminary final, the key back was very consistent for the most part in the second half of his breakout year, so he returns to the line-up. With the likes of Orazio Fantasia, Boyd, Lewis Young, Elijah Hollands, Lachie Cowan and Corey Durdin missing out on a spot in their best 26, the Blues’ depth for 2024 looks healthy.

*all team stat rankings mentioned are based on differentials, not totals (apart from overall offence and defence).