Darcy Moore leads a defeated Collingwood off the MCG after last Friday night’s loss to Sydney. Photo: AFL MEDIA
If you’re a student of football history, and a Collingwood supporter to boot, one statistic out of Round One might have you worried even more than the Magpies’ 0-2 win-loss record.
It’s that over the past 17 years, near enough to two decades, only two defending premiers have lost even just their first two games of the new season.
One of them was last year; Geelong, which indeed lost its first three. But the only other example since 2006 was Hawthorn in 2009. And the common denominator? Both the Hawks back then and the Cats last year missed out on the finals.
You can still write your own ticket on that same fate befalling Collingwood in 2024. But the fact the Pies’ start to this new campaign has been pretty ordinary is surely beyond dispute, even allowing for the quality of opposition, both GWS and Sydney already looking like potential flag threats.
Only a fool would be saying with any certainty that the Magpies in 2024 will be a far inferior version to last year, but the answer will certainly become clearer once senior coach Craig McRae can establish confidently whether the issues right now are predominantly technical or psychological. And if it ends up being the latter, yes, Collingwood is in trouble.
Fortunately, there’s evidence now that the malaise is due to the Pies’ famed style and structure missing a beat or two and as a result being a little out of kilter.
For example, Collingwood against the Swans did still win the contested ball and clearance counts, and centre bounces handsomely. On the downside, the Pies, who ranked No.1 last year for tackle differentials, lost that count to the Swans 51-72.
Perhaps even more significant in this loss, though, was the 78 points Collingwood conceded off turnover — after averaging only 40 per game against last year and ranking third in that category.
In 2023, the Pies were also ranked No.1 for using the boundary to bring the ball out of defence. But notable in some of Friday night’s clangers committed by even the likes of Darcy Moore and Scott Pendlebury, was the ball being centred well before the Pies moved past the defensive 50 arc.
The importance of absent key defender Nathan Murphy to Collingwood’s structure has been freely mentioned. Perhaps this loss underlined his significance even more, however, with Moore forced to play more defensively and zone off less as a result and on occasion being exposed. The Pies only conceded an average of 11 marks inside their defensive 50 in 2023. On Friday night, the Swans took 19.
PLEASE HELP US CONTINUE TO THRIVE BY BECOMING AN OFFICIAL FOOTYOLOGY PATRON. JUST CLICK THIS LINK.
“Our system has been really, really strong for us in recent times,” McRae said on Friday night. “Having trust in the system is the only way through. Process and system. Our system may be a bit clunky at the moment, so we’re going to get to work on that. We can improve these areas quickly, the numbers aren’t horrendous, but the way we’re moving the ball at times is hurting us.”
That’s the fuel which feeds the “something out of whack” narrative, and it was that line McRae was understandably a lot keener to indulge. Because the alternative, that this poor start is attitudinal, wouldn’t be nearly as easily fixed. Hence his disputing my suggestion that the Pies had been too “casual” with ball in hand.
As part of the famous Brisbane teams which won a hat-trick of flags between 2001 and 2003, McRae is at least perfectly-placed to detect early signs of the dreaded “premiership hangover”. Is he particularly eagle-eyed for the signs?
“Yeah, absolutely. I’m reading books about things that you need to do to repeat things. And we’re not standing still here, and there is a lot of time to go, which gives us great belief and comfort.”
What doesn’t offer as much comfort perhaps, is Collingwood’s newly-acquired status as the AFL’s oldest list, the only team with an average list age above 26.
The Pies have nine players 30 or older now. From oldest to youngest, they are Scott Pendlebury, Jeremy Howe, Steele Sidebottom, Mason Cox, Jamie Elliott, Brody Mihocek, Tom Mitchell, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Jack Crisp. None have exactly sparkled thus far in 2024.
It’s been noted plenty before, but players can fall off the proverbial cliff quickly once the wrong side of the “Big 3-0” has been reached. And perhaps even quicker once a mountain has already been climbed.
Collingwood this week takes on a St Kilda which nearly knocked off Geelong at Geelong, then grand final opponent Brisbane at the Gabba on Good Friday eve.
Structure or hunger? We’ll probably know more by then. And fittingly, given the occasion, whether the Pies are also in dire need of resurrection.
This article first appeared at ESPN.
