Sydney’s James Rowbottom starred when the Swans beat Collingwood at the SCG in round 22. Photo: AFL MEDIA
FIRST PRELIMINARY FINAL
GEELONG v BRISBANE (MCG, Friday 7.50pm)
You’ve got to hand it to Geelong. A preliminary finalist in 12 of the last 16 seasons – eight of those final-four appearances coming in a dozen years under Chris Scott – it could hardly have given itself a better shot at success over that period.
The ultimate prize has eluded the Cats for more than a decade now, but this year they’ve set themselves up better than at any stage during that time.
Entering the penultimate week of the season on a 14-match winning streak and buoyed by a thrilling qualifying final triumph, Geelong navigated the extra week off with a hard training session last Friday. It goes into the preliminary final with just about a clean bill of health.
There are no changes to the team that pipped Collingwood in a thriller, with Jake Kolodjashnij named despite injuring a knee against Collingwood and the unlucky Brandan Parfitt left out again.
The Cats will start red-hot favourites. But so did Melbourne last week against a Brisbane side that has shocked most onlookers by reaching a preliminary final from outside the top-four after copping a thrashing from the Demons in round 23.
The Lions have regained key forward Joe Daniher – absent last week to be at the birth of his child – and No.1 ruckman Oscar McInerney from a week off with concussion. Back-up ruckman Darcy Fort is stiff to miss out and Tom Fullarton has also been dropped.
Much of the build-up has centred around Jarrod Berry’s bid to play after he was initially handed a one-match ban by the match review officer for making contact with Melbourne star Clayton Oliver’s eyes. Berry was ultimately cleared after a three-hour tribunal hearing on Tuesday night.
Now the Lions must work out how to use him. Berry wanted the job on Oliver last week, was overlooked in favour of Deven Robertson, then moved into the role for the second half when assistant coach Cam Bruce put the hard word on Chris Fagan.
It worked a treat, with Berry blunting Oliver and shining offensively. There are no shortage of Geelong midfield stars – Patrick Dangerfield, Mitch Duncan, Joel Selwood, Cam Guthrie etc – for Berry to target if the Lions go that way.
Long-time Cats skipper Selwood will equal Hawthorn legend Michael Tuck’s record of 39 AFL/VFL finals appearances.
Tom Stewart, as always, has been crucial to the Cats’ success in the back half. But the Lions must be equally wary of the threats at the other end, where the All-Australian trio Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron and Tyson Stengle reside.
Cameron is clear to play after overcoming a hamstring injury, starring in the qualifying final and then falling ill last week. He has been on light training duties but will line up alongside another possible game-breaker in Gary Rohan.
Under pressure this month because of his perceived poor finals form in previous years, Rohan responded in fine fashion in the qualifying final. His three-goal performance and huge Wayne Carey-like grab late in the final term would no doubt have given him a massive confidence boost.
Brisbane skipper Dayne Zorko, too, entered September under an intense microscope. His captaincy credentials were questioned in the wake of the sledging incident that left Harrison Petty in tears. But Zorko has stood up in two big wins for his club.
Lachie Neale has also been brilliant. The Brownlow Medal favourite destroyed Richmond in arguably the best game of his career and grew increasingly influential against Melbourne. He’s one for the Cats to watch and perhaps there is a late change coming, with tagging option Mark O’Connor named as an emergency.
In attack, Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron have been in form during the finals and stood up in Daniher’s absence last week. Dan McStay, Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner and former Cats small Lincoln McCarthy are all dangerous.
So the Lions, who have racked up triple-figure scores almost every second week this season, don’t lack goal-kicking options. However, getting the ball through Geelong’s tight defence enough times to post a winning tally is never easy.
The Cats finished well clear on top of the ladder for a reason – they have been the best side for most of the season – and should win their way through to a second grand final in three years. But give the Lions a sniff and they’ve proved over the last fortnight they can make you pay.
SHAYNE’S TIP: Geelong by 29 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 22 points.
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SECOND PRELIMINARY FINAL
SYDNEY v COLLINGWOOD (SCG, Saturday 4.45pm)
Like it or not, the club so many footy fans love to hate is on the verge of sending one of the game’s great fairytales to print. There are just a couple more chapters left to write.
Collingwood, according to Craig McRae, is “here to win it all”.
The man they call ‘Fly’ has finally admitted it, having declared it previously beyond anyone’s wildest dreams that last year’s 17th-placed side would reach a preliminary final in his first season at the helm.
And who would deny the Magpies are up to their necks in this flag race now?
“One more game and you’re in a grand final,” McRae said after a convincing semi-final win over Fremantle. “We’re here to win this thing and we’re going to work our butts off to get better every day to give ourselves every chance.”
It’s a far cry from where McRae stood when he stepped into his first AFL senior coaching role late last year.
“I was hoping we’d be competitive,” he said. “We’ve been far more than that.”
So, too, has Sydney – and perhaps the Swans’ story has been undersold amid the “Flagpies” hysteria, especially in Melbourne. But there’s no doubting Sydney’s credentials or ability ahead of its first preliminary final at its true home ground – the SCG – since 1996.
That year, the competition’s fairytale had a distinct red-and-white storyline as Tony Lockett sunk his slipper into the most famous point in the history of the modern game to boot the Swans into a drought-breaking grand final appearance. Sydney had finished last from 1992-1994 before its rapid rise under Rodney Eade in 1996.
John Longmire’s current crop hasn’t come from the clouds like that. But it is every bit as exciting; sparked by an energetic band of youngsters, led by a battle-hardened senior core and spearheaded by another goal-kicking great.
Lance Franklin is possibly on his way out at the Swans – the champion has held his cards close to his chest this year – but there’s still time to put an exclamation mark on his career in the Harbour City in the final season of his monster nine-year deal.
Critics suggest Sydney needs a premiership to tick off its huge outlay on Franklin as a success. Others say it already has been, with Franklin putting bums on seats like only Lockett before him. It’s a debate we might soon be able to discard if the Swans salute on the last Saturday in September.
Franklin was quiet in Sydney’s upset of Melbourne a fortnight ago and would have been stewing on his performance ever since. Back on his home ground, where he kicked his 1000th career goal earlier this season, “Buddy” might just be ready to explode.
Darcy Moore awaits Franklin after the Pies’ star defender overcame illness last week. Tough midfielder Taylor Adams is out of action, but Jordan De Goey is living up to his game-breaker billing.
De Goey has put his off-field issues behind him and doesn’t seem bothered by ongoing contract speculation as he puts together a magnificent finals series. Jack Crisp stepped up big-time in Adams’ absence against Fremantle and there are possible sparks everywhere in the form of Jamie Elliott, Mason Cox, Jack Ginnivan and co.
Sydney also have them in spades, making this a tough game to pick. Like Franklin, emerging star Chad Warner was quiet against Melbourne, but he doesn’t often have two bad games in a row. Tom Papley, Tom Hickey, Luke Parker, Jake Lloyd, Callum Mills and James Rowbottom all had big first finals, and Isaac Heeney can win games off his own boot.
Both sides are unchanged from their previous matches in an indication the respective coaches are happy with their current form and the options available to them. Of course they are, following impressive showings on big stages.
Logan McDonald has retained his spot in the Swans’ line-up despite Longmire’s non-committal answer when quizzed on the young tall forward last week. Collingwood’s Trent Bianco will also play after impressing McRae as the replacement for Adams.
There was a sad end for Swans captain Josh Kennedy this week when any hopes of a finals comeback were extinguished by another hamstring setback. It brings down the curtain on a wonderful career. No doubt the 290-game champion and 2012 premiership player will have words of advice for his teammates behind the scenes.
SHAYNE’S TIP: Sydney by 6 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Sydney by 8 points.
