Richmond’s Noah Balta and Geelong’s Tom Hawkins in Round 17. Their duel is key to the grand final result. Photo: AFL MEDIA

2020 AFL GRAND FINAL
RICHMOND v GEELONG (Gabba, Saturday 6.30pm local time)

We made it! After completing the 153-game journey, and with eight finals done and dusted, there is just one game to go in this extraordinary season, and it promises to be an absolute beauty.

When AFL chief Gillon McLachlan announced at the end of round one that the competition would be put into hiatus, there wasn’t a person in the country who could’ve confidently predicted that the 2020 season would be completed.

Fast forward to late October, and the league has done a simply marvellous job in the most trying of circumstances.

And it’s hard to think of a more tantalising match-up to round out this unprecedented year than a grand final between two sides who have been competition heavyweights for a long time – Richmond and Geelong. It’s a thoroughly-deserved treat for footy fans who have done it tough in 2020, particularly those living in Victoria.

This premiership decider has so many overlapping, and captivating, storylines.

Will Gary Ablett win a fairytale third premiership with his beloved Cats in his 357th and final AFL game, three years after returning home from Gold Coast?

Will Ablett and Joel Selwood record the equal-second longest gap between first and last flags by any player (13 years)?

Will Trent Cotchin achieve captaincy immortality by becoming the first three-time Richmond premiership skipper?

Will Patrick Dangerfield finally break through for his first premiership at the age of 30 after achieving just about everything else in the game?

Will the Tigers go back-to-back for the first time in 46 years by doing something they have never done before – winning a third cup in four seasons – and cement themselves as one of the great teams of the modern era?

Will Dustin Martin create history by becoming the first player to win three Norm Smith Medals?

Having so many all-time greats feature in this grand final takes the occasion to another level.

This is the first time in the 124-year existence of the VFL/AFL that the grand final will be staged outside of Victoria, and the venue this weekend adds an interesting element to the contest.

Geelong have turned the Gabba into their fortress away from home this year, winning all five games there by a whopping average margin of 53 points.

The Tigers have a great record at the ground too, winning 11 of their last 12. But they did lose their most recent match at the Gabba to the Lions in the second qualifying final.

And Richmond’s decision to choose Metricon Stadium as their preferred ground in their semi-final against St Kilda was also interesting.

Could that sew a psychological seed of doubt in the players’ minds about their ability to win at the Gabba? Or was it done purely because it was less convenient for the Saints to get to the Gold Coast? We won’t be able to answer that question until 10pm on Saturday (AEDT).

There’s also a chance of showers and thunderstorms in Brisbane on Saturday, and it’s probably fair to say that the wet conditions would favour Richmond, which prefers the fast-paced chaotic forward surge game style, while Geelong likes to hit targets and be in control of the ball.

Richmond is arguably the best tackle pressure side in the AFL and if it applies the same kind of ferocity to the opposition ball carrier that it’s been able to do against the Saints and Power in its last two finals, then Geelong’s heavy reliance on precision skills will certainly be put to the test.

The Cats, though, have slightly tweaked their possession game in recent weeks and have played on more often against Collingwood and Brisbane, with devastating results.

Both teams are expected to name unchanged line-ups, which means from the last time they met in round 17, the Tigers will regain Shane Edwards, Dion Prestia, David Astubury and Nathan Broad, while the Cats will add a couple of blokes by the names of Ablett and Selwood, as well as Rhys Stanley, Gary Rohan and Sam Simpson. All nine of those players have proven to be important cogs of their respective sides in the past month.

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Geelong, in particular, will be hoping that its changes will ensure vast improvement considering it was held to just one goal midway through the final quarter before losing by 26 points last time against Richmond. The final margin flattered the Cats as the Tigers doubled them for scoring shots, 7.15 (57) to 4.7 (31).

On that occasion the Cats were badly let down not only by their over-reliance on Tom Hawkins in attack, but also their methodology in getting the ball to him. With numerous long bombs delivered in their forward line, it played right into the hands of Richmond’s elite intercepting backline.

On Saturday, Geelong will have to lower the eyes and be a lot more precise when entering its forward 50, especially when you consider the form Richmond ruckman Toby Nankervis has been in with his ability to drop back and help his defenders.

But the Cats displayed against the Lions in last weekend’s preliminary final that they’re capable of sending little chiselers on to Hawkins’ chest.

And as opposed to their last meeting with Richmond, instead of Ben Jarvis, Brad Close, Tom Atkins and Lachie Fogarty assisting Hawkins, Gryan Miers and Luke Dahlhaus, the Cats have dramatically changed their forward structure with Dangerfield, Rohan, Ablett and Simpson helping out. That’s an enormous difference.

However, Richmond hasn’t exactly stood still either in recent weeks. For most of the season, it has been one of the best turnover teams in the AFL, but in the last couple of weeks, a big shift has occurred and Damien Hardwick’s side is now extremely strong in the clearances.

In terms of match-ups, the biggest question of the game is what do the Cats do about Martin?

Geelong is not a tagging side, and justifiably relies on its system to get the job done. But in the unlikely event that Chris Scott changes his mind and decides to employ a run-with role on the champion Tiger, the versatile Mark Blicavs would seem like a pretty good option.

In the more likely event of Geelong opting against a hard tag, someone like Cam Guthrie would seem like a good choice on Martin in the midfield and then Jake Kolodjashnij should get the job on him up forward after doing great jobs on Brisbane’s Charlie Cameron and Collingwood’s Jordan De Goey in recent weeks.

Another option for Martin in the midfield might be Selwood. The Cats skipper seemed to be really struggling with his finger injury last week, and if his creativity will be curtailed as a result of that, his bash-and-crash abilities should still be top notch and could be very effective in putting Martin off his game.

On the other side of the coin, Dangerfield has the potential to cause serious headaches for the Tigers when he goes forward, because not only will he force Dylan Grimes or Nick Vlastuin to put a lot of work into him, but he’s so strong he has the ability to beat either one of them and kick a bag.

After doing a great job on Hawkins last time, Noah Balta should get that task again, but at the other end of the ground, will Harry Taylor be the man that minds Tom Lynch? Lynch booted five goals on Taylor in last year’s preliminary final, so it’ll be interesting to see if Scott backs in Taylor, in what could very well be his last game, or if Lachie Henderson might get the job.

Toby Nankervis against Rhys Stanley promises to be a great contest, with both ruckmen full of confidence and in great form, while Kamdyn Mcintosh against Sam Menegola is looming as an underrated battle on the wing with both players in superb form, too.

This really does promise to be a grand final for the ages, but there can only be one winner, and Richmond, with five wins from their past six encounters with Geelong (including two finals), just seems to be a slightly stronger side.

RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 16 points.
Norm Smith Medal: Dustin Martin (Richmond)

ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 12 points
Norm Smith Medal: Dustin Martin (Richmond)

RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 107
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 114