Brisbane’s Lachie Neale gets a handball away during the Lions’ Round 4 loss to Western Bulldogs. Photo: AAP

FIRST SEMI-FINAL
BRISBANE v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Gabba, Saturday 7.20pm local time)

Recency bias makes it very easy to fall into the classic trap of the semi-final weekend and favour the team in winning form.

And this game would seem to be as good an example as any in recent years of being seduced by the previous weekend’s winner.

After a tight first half, the Western Bulldogs flexed their considerable muscle and showed why they had been in the top four for 20 consecutive weeks, and why Essendon had been mid-ladder for much of the season.

The Dogs pulverised the Bombers by 49 points, restricting their opponents to a goalless second half (the first side to do so in a final in 65 years) and also their lowest score in a final since 1908.

Conversely, Brisbane was thoroughly outplayed by Melbourne, and was probably lucky to only lose by 33 points. If it wasn’t for Charlie Cameron’s five goals and Lachie Neale’s whopping 46 disposals, it certainly would have lost by more.

Having already headed into the game without Eric Hipwood (knee), the Lions’ forward structure was sent into disarray when Dan McStay (concussion) was subbed out before quarter-time. He won’t play this week either, which means their attacking set-up will look very different to how it has for majority of the year with Joe Daniher the only tall to feature.

Brisbane’s backline also had a very off night, in particular Harris Andrews, who was well down on his usually high level of output.

But outside of Neale, the Lions’ midfield really struggled as well, with the likes of Jarryd Lyons, Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko, Mitch Robinson and Jarrod Berry all failing to have a meaningful impact as their Melbourne counterparts dominated.

It would be really surprising to see the Lions’ usually lethal on-ball brigade have a second stinker in a row, especially in front of their home fans.

They’re not exactly up against a bunch of slouches this week, though, with the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae, Adam Treloar, Bailey Smith, Lachie Hunter and Josh Dunkley all capable of combining to drag their team to victory.

But outside of their last game against Essendon, the Dogs have actually struggled to click for an extended period, especially since Treloar and Dunkley have returned from long-term injuries.

The ruck department is also a major concern for the Bulldogs. They got away with it last week, despite Essendon’s Sam Draper comprehensively beating the undersized Lewis Young, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll be able to pull it off again against a much better side which also possesses a very capable ruckman in Oscar McInerney.

RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 15 points.
ROCOS TIP: Western Bulldogs by 2 points.

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SECOND SEMI-FINAL
GEELONG v GWS (Optus Stadium, Friday 5.50pm local time)

And then there were six.

After two teams fell by the wayside last week, we inch a step closer to the thrilling conclusion of this most remarkable of seasons.

The twists in the tale didn’t stop with the home-and-away season either, after the Giants upset their hometown rivals Sydney by a solitary point in a classic elimination final in Tasmania last week.

That’s why GWS is here to fight another day, but most of the lead-up to this cut-throat encounter with the Cats has been overshadowed by that man again, Toby Greene.

The walking controversy magnet found himself in yet another compromising situation against the Swans, and this time, rightfully, he couldn’t escape unscathed.

Greene’s ridiculous decision to walk into umpire Matt Stevic during a heated three-quarter time exchange last week has not only cost him his season, but almost certainly extinguished any hope the Giants might have had of causing a stir for longer than they were expected to during this finals campaign.

The electrifying 28-year-old copped a three-game suspension, a ban that could increase once the AFL’s appeal is through with (oddly delayed until the end of the season), and it’s a hammer blow that will probably prevent GWS from beating Geelong, let alone winning an against-the-odds flag.

Greene is so crucially important to his team – a fact that has seemingly become even more apparent this year as he has filled the captaincy breach left by the injured Stephen Coniglio for most of the season.

He has gone to a new level in 2021, and is pretty much the Giants’ most important player. He is irreplaceable and GWS is going to have to find a way without him.

And a big part of that strategy will fall on the shoulders of their midfield, because in their last three games against top-eight sides they have conceded on average 65 inside 50s to the opposition. Amazingly, though, they have won two of those matches – against Geelong and Sydney last week – thanks largely to their brilliant backline led by Sam Taylor.

However, they cannot afford to keep living on the edge like that. For all intents and purposes, they should have lost to Sydney last week. The Swans finished like a house on fire, but couldn’t get their noses in front as they booted a woeful 2.7 to 0.1 in the final term, to kick themselves out of the finals series.

It was a close shave of which GWS coach Leon Cameron would be all too aware, and without Tom Green (arm) in the midfield, the Giants’ job gets even tougher.

The Cats couldn’t have played any worse than they did last week. For the fourth time in five years, they kicked their lowest score of the season in their first final as Port Adelaide made them look slow, old and tired.

They weren’t on their own, but the poor performances from the likes of Patrick Dangerfield (who is battling a nasty finger injury), Lachie Henderson, Cam Guthrie, Joel Selwood, Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins and Mark Blicavs really stood out as they are such key members of the line-up. You can expect a fierce response from most, if not all, of those men.

Geelong’s possession game style was always going to be tested to its limits by a ruthless, chaotic team that takes the game on and surges the ball forward at all costs, and last week the Cats were overwhelmed by the Power in a finals footy masterclass.

But while the Cats might be 1-8 in week one of the finals since winning the 2011 flag, with that one win coming after the siren, the good news for them is that their semi-final record is much better in that period, going at 4-1, so they do have a proud record of bouncing back.

And with Zach Tuohy and Esava Ratugolea back in the team, Geelong should be able to progress through to its 12th preliminary final in 18 years.

RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 17 points.
ROCOS TIP: Geelong by 12 points.

RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 128
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 128