Melbourne star Jack Viney gang-tackled by Carlton duo Patrick Cripps and George Hewett. Photo: Michael Klein
FIRST SEMI-FINAL
MELBOURNE v CARLTON (MCG, Friday 7:50pm local time)
And then there were six.
After an action-packed first week of the finals, two teams have fallen by the wayside as we progress to the semi-final weekend.
For so many years, it was a run-of-the-mill chapter of the finals series, however it has slowly but surely become one of September’s most unpredictable stages over the past decade.
Between 2000-2013, the qualifying final loser won 26 of 28 semi-finals, but in the last nine years, the pendulum has swung dramatically in favour of the elimination final winner which has won eight of 18.
It’s a scoreline the Demons know all too well after they were bundled out of September in straight sets last year.
If they lose to Carlton, they won’t be the first team to suffer that fate twice since the inception of the current top-eight system, after Hawthorn (2016, 2018) and the Brisbane Lions (2019, 2021) did so. But they would create an unenviable piece of history by becoming the first team to blow its double chance in consecutive years. So to say the stakes are high for Melbourne would be an understatement.
And they have much to work on to avoid that fate. Old habits reared their ugly head at the worst possible time last week as they pounded Collingwood for inside 50s (69-37), yet still fell short by seven points. In fact, they almost quintupled the Magpies in that stat in the pulsating last quarter (19-4), but still couldn’t get the job done.
They were far too predictable when entering their forward line, allowing Collingwood’s backline to dine out on countless careless long bombs. This week, they have to lower their eyes, otherwise they can expect a similar outcome against Carlton’s well-drilled defence.
To that end, Melbourne’s ravaged forward line has suffered another blow with Jacob van Rooyen out suspended, but rather than go a like for like, coach Simon Goodwin has once again shunned Brodie Grundy and Ben Brown, and opted for a smaller forward line with Charlie Spargo returning for his first game since Round 18. Goodwin has backed in Tom McDonald in one of the key forward slots after the premiership star looked badly underdone last week.
Joining Spargo in the side are James Jordon and Adam Tomlinson who will provide extra support for Steven May and Jake Lever down back. In addition to van Rooyen, Angus Brayshaw (concussion), Bailey Laurie and Michael Hibberd, who is perhaps unlucky after doing a pretty good job on Jamie Elliott last week, exit Melbourne’s team.
The Demons must also make sure they hit the ground running, especially in the contest, because if they start the game like they did against Collingwood, they will be playing catch-up once again, which is not a place you want to be in a final.
Funnily enough, the Blues played almost identically to the Magpies last week, dominating the first half of their elimination final before narrowly avoiding being overrun by Sydney in the second.
Carlton has also lost a pair of key players with Harry McKay (concussion) and Jack Martin (suspended), who was one of its best against the Swans, making way for Matthew Kennedy – in for his first senior game in over two months.
With no McKay and Martin to help combat the likes of May and Lever, it was surprising to see Jack Silvagni overlooked again at selection.
It would’ve seemed logical for him to join Tom De Koning in assisting Charlie Curnow in that part of the ground, but Michael Voss and co. have gone in another direction.
Where De Koning could have a big influence is in the ruck, because the last time these two sides met, he teamed up with Marc Pittonet to do a pretty good job against Melbourne champion Max Gawn as the Blues won a thriller by four points in Round 22. For that reason, it’s slightly surprising that Grundy wasn’t recalled to help Gawn in that battle.
Carlton was tough and strong in the clinches last week, smashing the Swans by 26 in contested possessions (161-135), but perhaps looked a fraction slow as the game wore on, which is something Melbourne will no doubt be acutely aware of.
This has all the makings of another September classic, but inaccuracy was also a big issue for Melbourne last week, and it would be quite shocking to see a repeat performance from the Demons in front of goal, especially from sharpshooter Bayley Fritsch.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 6 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 2 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Carlton by 7 points.
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SECOND SEMI-FINAL
PORT ADELAIDE v GWS (Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:10pm local time)
While Carlton would justifiably rate its chances of joining the recent trend of first-week winners backing it up in the second week, Greater Western Sydney heads into its cut-throat semi-final supremely confident as well.
The Blues have won 10 of their last 11 to be the form team of the competition, but the Giants aren’t far behind with 10 of their last 12 games ending in victory.
And GWS does not fear travelling either. In comprehensively defeating St Kilda last week at the MCG, the Giants re-broke their league record of most venues a team has won at in a single season, a figure which now stands at 11.
As for Port Adelaide, after looking as though its season was back on track by winning its final three games of the home-and-away season, after losing its previous four, it got another reminder of how much work it has to do to win the premiership when it copped an eight-goal hammering from Brisbane at the Gabba last week.
The Power appear to be quite banged up as well and while Dylan Williams (hamstring) is the only forced omission, Trent McKenzie has been named despite suffering an ankle injury against the Lions to go with a host of other issues he has been managing throughout the year.
Stunningly, Jeremy Finlayson has been dropped in what marks a spectacular fall from grace after he was one of Port’s best players during their 13-game winning streak. He hasn’t kicked a goal in his last two games and only managed six touches against Brisbane. Star forward Charlie Dixon returns for his first game in seven weeks.
After a magnificent four-goal effort last week, youngster Ollie Lord has been preferred to Finlayson, and keeps his place in the team alongside Dixon and Todd Marshall.
And as if the Giants needed any more bolstering, their star midfielder Stephen Coniglio returns to the line-up.
It comes as no surprise that Port Adelaide has kept McKenzie in its side, because the Power desperately need him down back. Their undermanned defence looked suspect once again last week as Brisbane’s forward line tore it apart.
Given how damaging the Giants’ forwards were against the Saints, Port Adelaide needs all hands on deck in that part of the ground. Aliir Aliir cannot do it all by himself.
Greater Western Sydney’s pressure in attack has also been immense, led by the likes of Toby Bedford and Brent Daniels who are now two of the best pressure forwards in the AFL.
The orange tsunami has been well and truly back since the midway point of the season, and the Giants’ run-and-gun from defence last week left St Kilda flat-footed.
GWS’s top-tier players are all performing at their maximum capabilities, but they are also being brilliantly supported by a scaffolding of well-drilled role players who are all doing exactly as they’re being told by coach Adam Kingsley.
As captain Toby Greene told Channel Seven last week: “It’s probably the least talented side I’ve played in that’s played in finals, but it’s probably the side I’ve got the most trust in to perform.”
And the Giants star-studded midfield will be quietly confident of getting a hold of the Power who were smashed in the clearances last week, conceding 81 points to Brisbane from that source.
But with so many of Port Adelaide’s key players, such as Jason Horne-Francis, Ollie Wines, Ryan Burton, Darcy Byrne-Jones, Marshall and Xavier Duursma, having down games last week, a fierce response can be expected in front of their home fans.
Like Melbourne, poor goalkicking early cost the Power dearly. They were in the game in the first half, and if they hadn’t have missed a host of gettable shots, including a clutch of sitters from the usually reliable Marshall, they might’ve tested Brisbane for longer.
If they can fix up their radar this week, it’ll go a long way to them progressing to a third preliminary final in four years.
RONNY’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 10 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 6 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: GWS by 13 points.
SEASON TOTALS
RONNY 142
ROCO 141
ROCKET 132
