Collingwood’s Jordan de Goey enjoys one of his five goals against Geelong in round 7 in Perth. Photo: GETTY IMAGES

SECOND SEMI-FINAL
RICHMOND v ST KILDA (Metricon Stadium, Friday 6.50pm local time)

The second week of the 2020 finals certainly has its work cut out to live up to the incredibly high standard set by the first week, in what was arguably the most spectacular opening to a finals series since 1994.

And the AFL desperately needed it after some of the unwatchable garbage served up this season (granted, largely due to the extreme conditions all 18 teams have been operating in).

Despite its stirring three-point victory over the Western Bulldogs last week in its first final in nine years, St Kilda is up against it to ensure the entertaining start to the finals continues on Friday night in what will be a history-making first final staged at Metricon Stadium, after 34 seasons and 205 games.

Aside from their late fadeout, the Saints were superb in their elimination final with their superiority in the air a cornerstone of their triumph. Brett Ratten’s side took a whopping 21 contested marks – more than any other team this season.

However, 29 per cent of those grabs will be lost this week with Paddy Ryder, who was close to best on ground, succumbing to a season-ending hamstring injury and star defender Jake Carlisle departing the AFL bubble to be present for the birth of his third child. Ben Long won’t be available either after being suspended for a high hit on Jack Macrae.

Compounding Carlisle’s absence for St Kilda is the return of Richmond key forward Tom Lynch, whose four-week layoff due to a hamstring injury has come to an end.

That means Jonathon Marsh and Shane Savage, who have both been brought back into the Saints’ line-up after only playing a combined six games between them this year, will have to pick up the slack and provide support down back to the likes of Dougal Howard, Nick Coffield and Callum Wilkie.

The talented Josh Battle also returns for St Kilda after overcoming foot soreness.

Nathan Broad has been recalled to Richmond’s side, along with Lynch, for his first game since round 15, and with Mabior Chol dropped, Broad will pinch-hit in the ruck as an undersized option, much like Shaun Grigg used to do, to give Toby Nankervis a chop-out. Jake Aarts has also lost his spot in the Tigers’ side.

Richmond finds itself in unfamiliar territory since its domination of the competition began in 2017 – for the first time in four seasons, it has lost a qualifying final and instead of having a week off in addition to the pre-finals bye, must navigate a cut-throat semi-final in the second week.

Brisbane did to the Tigers what only Collingwood has managed to do in recent years – out-harass and pressure them into submission in a final. It’s not often you see a Richmond side give away so many silly free kicks, including four 50-metre penalties in the first half. It was a very undisciplined performance, and the Lions managed to get under the Tigers’ skin beautifully.

Lynch’s absence was keenly felt, too, with Chol struggling all throughout the night as Richmond only managed 14 scores from 49 inside 50s (28.6 per cent), compared to Brisbane’s 19 from 45 (42.2 per cent).

But with the Saints missing so many key players, and Richmond basically at full strength, it would be staggering to see the Tigers make a straight-sets exit from the finals.

Not only is Richmond the best team in the AFL at scoring from turnovers, with 14.9 more points per game than the opposition, but it’s also ranked second for inside 50 differentials, and with Lynch back, and Carlisle out, that strength is ripe to be exploited in the first final played between the two sides in 47 years.

RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 24 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 36 points.

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FIRST SEMI-FINAL
GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD (Gabba, Saturday 6.40pm local time)

Fresh from producing one of the greatest upsets in finals history, Collingwood is brimming with confidence as it heads into its blockbuster sudden-death meeting with the Cats. And with good reason.

The Magpies have won their last two games against Geelong – last year’s qualifying final encounter and this year’s meeting in round seven at Optus Stadium, which was their best performance of the year until their epic one-point win over West Coast last week.

In Collingwood’s last meeting with the Cats, Jordan de Goey was unstoppable, kicking five of nine goals, and he also came up big against the Eagles in the first elimination final with two spectacular goals at crucial moments in the match.

Who gets the big job on him this time? Jake Kolodjashnij? Jed Bews? Whoever it is, they’re going to have their hands full.

But De Goey is far from Geelong’s only concern down back, because big American Mason Cox has decided all of a sudden to recapture his best form, while Brody Mihocek also played one of the best games of his career last week.

The dangerous trio combined for eight of Collingwood’s 12 goals, so Mark Blicavs, Tom Stewart, Harry Taylor, Lachie Henderson and Jack Henry are going to have to combine with Kolodjashnij and Bews to produce one of their very best defensive performances of the year, akin to the ones that saw them smother St Kilda and Port Adelaide in back-to-back games earlier this year.

Conversely, the Cats struggled to fire up forward in their qualifying final loss to the Power, managing only five goals, with All-Australian spearhead Tom Hawkins booting five behinds from six shots on goal – a highly uncharacteristic performance and at the worst possible time of the season.

The Cats had plenty of other players who had their colours lowered too, and they will need huge improvements out of Gary Ablett, Gary Rohan and Gryan Miers in particular if they are to avoid a straight-sets exit from the finals.

But over the course of the season, Geelong has been a more efficient side than the Magpies when entering its forward 50, while it has also been more proficient at scoring from both turnovers and stoppages.

There will be a nervous watch over the availability of their captain Joel Selwood, who suffered a serious finger tendon injury against the Power, which required surgery during the week. Given how tough he is, though, you’d expect him to be given right up until the first bounce to prove his fitness, and it would come as no surprise if he managed to convince the medical team he was right to play.

There is so much riding on this contest from a historical perspective for the Cats. This mighty club has gone to the well so many times over the last 17 seasons, winning three flags, making four grand finals and 10 preliminary finals. But since winning their last premiership in 2011, they just haven’t been able to convert their home-and-away dominance into finals victories, winning just four of 16 finals despite finishing in the top four on six occasions.

The team is still very reliant on ageing stars who are on the wrong side of 30 such as Ablett (36), Taylor (34), Selwood (32), Hawkins (32), Zach Tuohy (30), Henderson (30) and Patrick Dangerfield (30), and with Josh Jenkins (31) and Jack Steven (30) on the list too, it remains to be seen how much further this bunch of battle-hardened veterans can take the Cats beyond 2020.

Not only is Geelong aiming for a staggering 11th preliminary final in 17 years, it’s also arguably fighting to keep its current era alive this week. And after a disappointing result last week, which easily could have gone the other way had the Cats kicked straight, they should squeak past the Magpies to live to fight another day.

RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 3 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 6 points.

RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 104
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 110