Port Adelaide’s Steven Motlop celebrates his match-winning goal in last year’s first “Showdown”. Picture: FOX FOOTY
SYDNEY v ESSENDON (SCG, Friday 7.50pm local time)
It’s only round eight, but the moment of truth has already arrived for Essendon. The Bombers were totally outclassed by premiership favourite Geelong last week in a truly horrible performance, and despite putting an excellent month of footy together prior to that loss, the fact is the Bombers have slipped to 3-4. Do the Dons consider themselves to be a finals threat this year? Because if they do, beating the Swans is a non-negotiable. Yes, Essendon has lost its last six games at the SCG, but this is not the same Sydney side that the rest of the competition has feared over the past decade. Since the start of last year, the Swans have lost 10 games at their home ground. Joe Daniher (managed) is a big loss for Essendon, but the Dons’ regular tormentor Lance Franklin (hamstring) is also still sidelined and they should regain the dynamic Orazio Fantasia assuming he doesn’t make it a hat-trick of late withdrawals due to illness. There are no excuses this week for Essendon against the bottom-of-the-ladder Swans.
RONNY’S TIP: Essendon by 21 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Essendon by 24 points.
WESTERN BULLDOGS v BRISBANE (Mars Stadium, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
This is a tough one. Sure, the Lions are the more in-form team heading into this game as they sit in the top four with five wins, but they’ve already shown this year that when you take them out of their comfort zone at the Gabba, they can struggle, their huge round four loss to Essendon at the MCG being the prime example. And nothing says discomfort for a bunch of Queenslanders more than a 13-degree day in beautiful Ballarat! The Dogs showed what their best looks like last week, but they are so inconsistent, it’s almost impossible to get an accurate read on them. Crucially for the Lions, star defender Harris Andrews returns and will presumably have the job on Aaron Naughton after the youngster tore Richmond apart last week. The Lions have been incredibly impressive this year, but the Mars Stadium environment might just be enough to tip the scales in the Dogs’ favour.
RONNY’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 4 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 18 points.
CARLTON v COLLINGWOOD (MCG, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
The only hope the Blues had of getting close to the Magpies was if something happened like Collingwood president Eddie McGuire saying something stupid like, I don’t know, the Blues should look at replacing their coach? Oh, hang on. What do you know? That actually did happen this week! Well, those comments may be enough to fire up the Blues enough to ensure they’re competitive for a quarter or two, but it’s still very hard to see how they can expect to come close to a genuine premiership contender in the form of Collingwood. Carlton has some good ins (Matthew Kreuzer, Will Setterfield and Mitch McGovern) and Collingwood some big outs (Taylor Adams and Dayne Beams), but it still won’t be enough to ensure a close game.
RONNY’S TIP: Collingwood by 36 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 40 points.
GOLD COAST v MELBOURNE (Metricon Stadium, Saturday 4.35pm local time)
If this doesn’t spell “danger game” for Melbourne, then the Dees aren’t missing Jesse Hogan right now. Melbourne’s gutsy win over Hawthorn last week provided it with some respite, but boy are the Demons back under the microscope this week. Once again, the Suns showed how hard they are to beat against West Coast in Perth, and armed with four big ins – Pearce Hanley, Lachie Weller, Sean Lemmens and Jack Lukosius – they will see this as a very winnable game. Credit must go to Melbourne for fighting so hard to return to the winners’ circle last week, but even with the return of co-captain Jack Viney (who has seemed underdone for most of 2019), the Dees will struggle to get the job done this week.
RONNY’S TIP: Gold Coast by 11 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 10 points.
ST KILDA v WEST COAST (Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7.25pm local time)
If West Coast thinks it can continue plodding along like it has have been for the last four weeks and expect to get the job done against St Kilda this week, the Eagles have got another thing coming. Sure, the Saints have hit a bit of pothole in the last couple of weeks, but their early-season form was electric, and shouldn’t be forgotten by Adam Simpson and his men. The Eagles seem downright disinterested at the moment, and Chris Masten has paid the price for their efforts by being omitted. However, the Saints’ injury toll is starting to mount, and if the Eagles manage to reignite their spark – they defeated Collingwood in Melbourne already this year, remember – then this contest might be the one West Coast looks back on at the end of the year as the match which kicked it back into gear.
RONNY’S TIP: West Coast by 17 points.
ROCO’S TIP: West Coast by 6 points.
PORT ADELAIDE v ADELAIDE (Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7.10pm local time)
The Power were brought back down to earth with a thud last week by Collingwood, who showed them exactly what it takes to be considered a premiership threat. Compounding things for Ken Hinkley’s side are the losses of Ollie Wines (leg) and Brad Ebert (concussion), on top of the already-absent Robbie Gray (hand) and Tom Jonas (calf). While the Crows have been winning recently, they haven’t been totally convincing, and the loss of Bryce Gibbs (back) is a blow. This fixture is always one of the most highly-anticipated clashes of the season, and edition No.46 should be no different. Expect the Crows to make the most of so many key players missing from the Power’s line-up.
RONNY’S TIP: Adelaide by 10 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Adelaide by 2 points.
NORTH MELBOURNE v GEELONG (Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1.10pm local time)
It’s been a hell of an emotional rollercoaster ride for North Melbourne this week. From thinking the Roos were going to face the Cats without Patrick Dangerfield (injury) and Gary Ablett (suspension), to now preparing for the very real possibility of both superstars taking to the field on Sunday. Well, Ablett certainly will be, after having his one-game ban overturned, and Dangerfield will be a line-ball call as he continues to recover from a knee complaint. Either way, this seems to be quite the mismatch and, despite smashing Carlton by 10 goals last week, the Kangaroos would do well to finish up within five goals of Geelong, which regains Zach Tuohy.
RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 44 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 36 points.
HAWTHORN v GWS (MCG, Sunday 3.20pm local time)
The Giants have an abysmal record at the home of football, with just two wins from 15 attempts, but you can expect that trend to change dramatically on Sunday when they come up against the spluttering Hawks. If GWS wants to finally win a premiership this year, it has to start winning games at the MCG, and the Giants have no better chance to do so than this week. With all guns blazing, Greater Western Sydney is one of the most fearsome teams in the competition right now and Hawthorn has a monumental task of shutting the Giants down. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the Hawks dropped a massive selection bombshell by omitting beloved former captain Jarryd Roughead, who joins recruit Chad Wingard (hamstring) out of the side. On the other side of the coin, GWS looks set to regain Phil Davis and Josh Kelly, which should allow it to make the most of a rare MCG appearance during the home-and-away season against the terribly out-of-form Hawks.
RONNY’S TIP: GWS by 37 points.
ROCO’S TIP: GWS by 26 points.
FREMANTLE v RICHMOND (Optus Stadium, Sunday 3.20pm local time)
The injury toll at Tigerland is showing no signs of letting up, with Nick Vlastuin (ankle) and Daniel Rioli (quad) the latest additions. Richmond was already missing Trent Cotchin (hamstring), Alex Rance (knee), Jack Riewoldt (knee), Jayden Short (elbow) and Jack Graham (hamstring) heading into this match, and while David Astbury returns, the Tigers, who enjoyed such a charmed run with injury for so long, might just have reached their critical mass. Their eight-goal loss to the Bulldogs last week is the biggest tell-tale sign yet of that being the case. The Dockers weren’t great against Adelaide last week, but they showed signs in the previous fortnight that they’re back playing very decent footy. Their only loss at Optus Stadium this year has been to West Coast, and the Tigers are going to find it very hard to re-enter the top eight this week.
RONNY’S TIP: Fremantle by 23 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 4 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 34
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 37
G’day guys.
Loving this site and your podcasts.
A lot of commentators are favouring the Pies for the flag and I got to wondering that, if you could rate teams’ wins, would it show they are indeed equal or outright flag favourites.
Thus I have been working on a “Relative ladder” that intends to show how teams sit relative to who they’ve played, whether it was home, away or neutral, and the margin. It takes into account the changing success of the clubs. This a rolling, cumulative system. That is, a win against Melbourne in round one would have been highly rated, but now, it’s seen to be not that big an indicator. Likewise, a win against the Lions didn’t rate so high in round one but now is seen as more significant.
My system also gives greater value to beating higher placed teams, penalises greater for losing to lower placed teams, and does not overly penalise losing to high placed teams or overly reward beating low placed teams.
Which comes from the comment “Yeah, team X is doing okay, but most of their wins were against lowly teams. Wait til they play better teams”
Therefore, for instance, Collingwood beating Carlton won’t score them many points on my system unless they flog them. But if Carlton beat the Pies, they will gain a large number of points.
Like the real ladder, you can’t guarantee from it who will beat who on any given day. What you can read from it though is that Geelong and Collingwood should not be equal odds to win the flag **at this stage**, based on who they’ve beaten and lost to, where and the margins.
With all that… here’s how my relative ladder looks after last week (round 7) with the real ladder position in brackets and the points in my system in square brackets:
1 Geelong (1) [118.7]
2 Collingwood (2) [75.3]
3 GWS Giants (3) [72.3]
4 Brisbane Lions (4) [41.2]
5 West Coast Eagles (10) [38.3]
6 Fremantle (5) [32.3]
7 Adelaide (6) [25.5]
8 Port Adelaide (7) [18.2]
9 Essendon (11) [9.7]
10 St Kilda (8) [8.5]
11 Richmond (9) [-1.8]
12 Western Bulldogs (12) [-27.8]
13 Hawthorn (13) [-28.8]
14 Gold Coast (14) [-33.7]
15 North Melbourne (15) [-66.3]
16 Melbourne (16) [-77]
17 Sydney (18) [-98.8]
18 Carlton (17) [-102.8]
The big discrepancy is obviously West Coast. The reason for this is they have had the toughest run so far, playing six other teams currently in the top 8, winning three and losing three. As I mentioned, winning against high placed teams gains more points and losing against them doesn’t penalise much. As the Eagles start to play lower placed teams, if they lose a few they will fall down the relative ladder. Also, if the teams in the 8 they’ve beaten fall down the ladder, Eagles will also lose points, as those wins will become less valuable.
The system does have some flaws though. It rates all home ground advantages equally. It also doesn’t take into account that a team may actually have been really strong when played and beaten but fallen away since due to reasons like injuries.
Anyways, hope you’re not too confused!