Dom Sheed wheels on to his left foot during West Coast’s six-point win over Hawthorn in Round 15. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
COLLINGWOOD v ESSENDON (MCG, Friday 7.50pm local time)
Well, it appears as though whatever amount of anticipation was attached to this game has evaporated at the selection table, with the Bombers forced to make another six changes to their team. Essendon has redefined the word “unsettled” with a total of 18 changes to the side in the past three weeks. It’s been carnage at Tullamarine. And while the Bombers regain Cale Hooker, Tom Bellchambers and Dylan Clarke, the amount of firepower that has exited their side will be almost impossible to overcome, with captain Dyson Heppell, match winner Jake Stringer, livewire Orazio Fantasia and David Zaharakis all out injured. And they’re running into Collingwood at the worst time to have such personnel issues, because the Magpies are fresh from arguably their best performance of the year – an 11-goal drubbing of the Crows in Adelaide. What’s more, Collingwood has more to play for with a top-four chance still a possibility, while Essendon actually will probably benefit by losing given that would mean their first two finals at least would be in Melbourne rather than both being interstate (assuming they win their first final, of course). In a further boost for the Pies, they welcome back Darcy Moore.
RONNY’S TIP: Collingwood by 33 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 8 points.
SYDNEY v ST KILDA (SCG, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
With not much riding on this game, the Swans have added plenty of weight to it with champion forward Lance Franklin and star veteran Jarrad McVeigh both named to play their 300th and farewell games respectively. But if St Kilda players want caretaker Brett Ratten to stay on as full-time coach, a strong performance would send the right message to the board. However, the Swans regained their mojo in a big way last week against the Demons, and on what will be a huge day of celebration and emotion, they should have the edge.
RONNY’S TIP: Sydney by 11 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Sydney by 20 points.
NORTH MELBOURNE v MELBOURNE (Blundstone Arena, Saturday 2.10pm local time)
This is another game that has no impact on the finals race, but the biggest point of interest comes in the form of the Coleman Medal battle with Ben Brown shooting out to a four-goal lead over the Giants’ Jeremy Cameron following his incredible 10-goal bag against Port Adelaide last week. However, given Cameron is facing the Suns later in the day, Brown will probably need five or six majors to make a certainty of the award, because you just know that Cameron’s teammates will be looking for him in what promises to be a bloodbath up at Metricon Stadium. The bottom has well and truly fallen out of the Demons, and their shocking year looks set to be capped off with another heavy defeat, this week against the red-hot Kangaroos.
RONNY’S TIP: North Melbourne by 44 points.
ROCO’S TIP: North Melbourne by 32 points.
GEELONG v CARLTON (GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4.35pm local time)
If the Cats want to make sure they don’t travel interstate in the first week of the finals, then the equation is pretty simple: beat Carlton. Given the recent form lines of both teams, this would have been a very interesting contest if it was played at Marvel Stadium. The Cats have gone loss-win in their past nine games, while the Blues have maintained a very high level of competitiveness in their 10 games under David Teague, which have yielded six wins. But one thing Geelong has been able to rely on all season is its Kardinia Park fortress, with just one loss (by four points to GWS) from its eight matches there. In fact, only two sides have beaten the Cats there in the last four years, so expect Geelong to finish the season off in style.
RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 22 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 28 points.
GOLD COAST v GWS (Metricon Stadium, Saturday 7.25pm local time)
Like North Melbourne’s game, the Coleman Medal race is the most interesting aspect of this one. Cameron is still a sniff, as he trails Brown by just four goals, and if Brown can only manage two or three goals against the Demons, then it’s well and truly “game on”. The Giants are also aiming to guarantee themselves a home elimination final, and they will have no problems doing that against a team that has lost its last 17 games in a row. This one could get very ugly, because no team likes an easy kill quite like GWS. When the whiff of blood enters their nostrils, they become merciless, and they have plenty to atone for after becoming the first team in 108 years to register consecutive goalless second halves. They do lose Toby Greene (calf) and Nick Haynes (throat), but the returns of Shane Mumford, Jeremy Finlayson, Cameron, Daniel Lloyd and Sam Taylor equate to a very long evening for the hapless Suns.
RONNY’S TIP: GWS by 95 points.
ROCO’S TIP: GWS by 70 points.
WEST COAST v HAWTHORN (Optus Stadium, Saturday 6.10pm local time)
Given Essendon has already confirmed a finals spot and can’t qualify for the top four, we now arrive at the first game of the weekend where both teams have something to play for. The Eagles are out to secure a top-two spot and ensure themselves two Optus Stadium finals, while the ninth-placed Hawks are aiming to keep their unlikely finals dream alive. Given what the Eagles produced last week in what was the match of the season against Richmond, it’s hard to see the Hawks troubling them too much, but funnier things have happened in footy, and when you have the ace up the sleeve in the form of Alastair Clarkson, you’re never out of it completely. An upset win by Hawthorn would add extra spice to the Bulldogs-Adelaide game on Sunday, too, but with so much at stake you can expect the Eagles to put in a strong performance and ramp up the pressure on the Lions, who face Richmond.
RONNY’S TIP: West Coast by 32 points.
ROCO’S TIP: West Coast by 18 points.
WESTERN BULLDOGS v ADELAIDE (Ballarat, Sunday 1.10pm local time)
This might be a contest between eighth and 10th with a finals spot on the line, but truth be told, it’s less exciting than that. Adelaide played like a team in the grip of extreme disharmony last week as it meekly surrendered to Collingwood in what ended up the Crows’ worst-ever defeat at Adelaide Oval. A finals spot was on the line then, so why should the Crows put in a better performance this time around with the horse having already bolted? They would rather be anywhere else in the world than Ballarat where the top temperature is expected to be a “balmy” nine degrees on Sunday. Conversely, the Doggies are playing such scintillating footy that they probably cannot wait to get back out on the park for another two hours. They have been incredible in the last two weeks in particular, beating Essendon and GWS by a combined margin of 165 points, including two separate streaks of 21 and 12 consecutive goals. They are roaring towards September and should make light work of the Crows to secure their finals berth.
RONNY’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 39 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 46 points.
RICHMOND v BRISBANE (MCG, Sunday 3.20pm local time)
And now we come to the match of the round. What a game this promises to be – first (Lions) v fourth (Tigers) with so much still to play for. Brisbane will be looking to secure top spot and two Gabba finals, while Richmond is still out to ensure it gets a double chance. If Collingwood wins, the Tigers will have to defeat Brisbane to finish in the top four. Also, if Richmond win, the Tiges would almost certainly play their first final at the MCG instead of travelling interstate. Not only is this a top-four showdown, it’s also a battle between the two most in-form teams in the AFL, with Brisbane having won its last nine games, and Richmond its last eight. The Lions and Tigers also emerged from last week’s top-four thrillers victorious against Geelong and West Coast respectively. As good as the Lions have been, their record in Victoria hasn’t been crash hot this year (2-3), with their only game at the MCG ending in an eight-goal loss to Essendon. Conversely, the Tigers have won 10 of 12 games there, including their last six. Home ground advantage will be too strong for Richmond, which also welcomes back skipper Trent Cotchin.
RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 17 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 34 points.
PORT ADELAIDE v FREMANTLE (Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4.10pm local time)
When the AFL announced the round 23 fixture less than a month ago, they couldn’t have foreseen the last game of the round basically becoming a dead rubber. But that’s pretty much the situation we find ourselves in, with Freo not only out of finals contention, but also now without a senior coach after Ross Lyon was sacked this week. Meanwhile, Port Adelaide needs a minor miracle to finish in the top eight, relying on Hawthorn and the Bulldogs losing, then beating the Dockers by a big enough margin to overtake both the Crows’ and Doggies’ percentage. Pretty far-fetched. However, Xavier Duursma and Scott Lycett are good inclusions to the Power’s squad. There would be no more fitting way for Port Adelaide to end 2019 than with a victory which comes too late to save its incredibly inconsistent season, and that’s probably what will happen in Freo caretaker David Hale’s only game in charge.
RONNY’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 23 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 16 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 117
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 123
I’m with Roco on the Lions v Tiges game. The Lions only just managed to win against another top 4 team last week – and that was at their home ground. Interstate, on the MCG, against a team who’s played 6 straight there, rarely loses there… the odds are stacked against the Lions.
BTW Re the Tigers getting their last seven games at the ‘G… WTF? What a nice way to come into the finals. Week after week after week of playing and fine tuning your game to the ground the grand final is played on, and the one you’ll likely play most of your finals. What were the AFL thinking when they made the fixture? Did they feel sorry for the Tiges missing last year and felt they needed to give them a leg up? In those seven weeks, they’ve played 4 interstate teams. Surely the AFL could have scheduled a couple of those interstate?