Action from Richmond’s dramatic four-point win over the Giants at Marvel Stadium in round nine. Photo: AFL MEDIA
GWS v RICHMOND (Marvel Stadium, Friday 7.50pm local time)
September has come early for the Giants (eighth) and Tigers (10th) who kick off Round 22 by locking horns in a virtual elimination final, with just half-a-game separating them. In fairness, the finals have probably unofficially been going on for a month already for teams in the middle section of the ladder, in the process putting paid to any suggestion that a “wildcard weekend” should be introduced (but that’s an argument for another day). Fresh from pulling off arguably the upset of the season in beating the Cats in Geelong with about half their best team missing, the Giants have brought back the big guns for this most-important game. Josh Kelly, Jacob Hopper, Shane Mumford, Jesse Hogan, Daniel Lloyd and Adam Kennedy all return to significantly bolster the Giants’ team, although they do lose their best player, Toby Greene, to suspension. Even though this game is being played in Melbourne with no crowds and the Giants having already been on the road for an extended period, Richmond loses a lot of the usual bells and whistles associated with a hometown game against an interstate side. And while the Giants’ second half of the season has been topsy-turvy, to say the least, they’ve still been in much better form than the Tigers, which says a lot about how dramatic Richmond’s fall from grace has been.
RONNY’S TIP: GWS by 19 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 6 points.
HAWTHORN v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Launceston, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
Based on the Hawks’ last month of footy, you’d be forgiven for second-guessing their decision to ship off their four-time premiership coach Alastair Clarkson. Wins over Brisbane and Collingwood, as well as a draw with Melbourne, suggest that maybe the future isn’t so gloomy after all. But they’re going to have to be right on their A-game this week if they want to cause another upset result, because the Bulldogs are fighting to stay in the top two and ensure an all-important first-up home final (COVID restrictions permitting). They’re also on the rebound from a shock loss to a previous “bunny” in Essendon. The Dogs have been hit by injuries to key players again with bookends Josh Bruce and Josh Schache out with knee injuries, while Ryan Gardner (shoulder) failed to prove his fitness. However, Alex Keath does return to bolster a backline that was exposed badly by big Bomber Peter Wright last week, and he is joined in the line-up by zippy small forwards Laitham Vandermeer, Cody Weightman and Mitch Hannan, who will be tasked with picking up the slack in attack now that Bruce is out for the season. This is the Dogs’ first visit to Tasmania since 2015, and this ground has not provided many good memories, with just one win from five attempts, but it would be a huge shock if they suffered back-to-back losses for the first time this season.
RONNY’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 22 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 18 points.
PORT ADELAIDE v CARLTON (Adelaide Oval, Saturday 4.05pm local time)
This promises to be quite a significant occasion for the Blues, with stalwart Marc Murphy becoming just the sixth player to reach 300 games for the club. He will also retire at the conclusion of the match. Unfortunately, though, Murphy’s big milestone will take place with familiar boardroom rumblings as the backdrop as coach David Teague’s tenure looks increasingly unlikely to extend beyond 2021. And to make matters worse, Carlton will have to take on one of the best teams in the league without three of its most important players in Liam Jones (knee), Harry McKay (shoulder) and Jack Silvagni (hip). While upset results have been a common feature of this AFL season, Port Adelaide has been just about the most reliable team when it comes to dealing with inferior opposition and avoiding “banana skin” games. The Power should do it easily.
RONNY’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 43 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 32 points.
GEELONG v ST KILDA (Kardinia Park, Saturday 4.35pm local time)
The Cats bring back key quartet Jeremy Cameron, Lachie Henderson, Isaac Smith and Mark O’Connor after failing to shore up a top-four spot last week against the Giants. If they want to avoid having to beat fellow premiership contender Melbourne in the last round to achieve the double chance, they’re going to have to make sure of it this week against the Saints. And in an added boost, Patrick Dangerfield (larynx) has also been cleared to play. Forgotten man Dan Hannebery returns for his first game of the year for the Saints, and just the 14th of his injury-ravaged three-season tenure at Moorabbin, as well as important backman Dougal Howard. But crucially, Paddy Ryder (achilles) remains sidelined, even though St Kilda did take care of the Swans impressively without him. If you thought Geelong losing at its home ground was a rarity, it hasn’t suffered back-to-back losses at Kardinia Park in six years, so it’s fair to say history is against the Saints, who themselves, are trying to keep their faint finals dreams alive.
RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 28 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 22 points.
BRISBANE v COLLINGWOOD (Gabba, Saturday 7.25pm local time)
The Lions seem to have recaptured their best form at the right time of the year. And while their revival might have come a week too late with their top-four hopes in serious jeopardy, they’d take the consolation prize of at least rediscovering their killer instinct, which was on show for all to see last week as they pounded Fremantle by 64 points – their equal-second biggest win of the season. And the news gets better for Chris Fagan’s team, with reigning Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale returning, along with Darcy Gardiner, who will make his first appearance since seriously injuring his shoulder in round nine. Gardiner’s return is arguably as important as Neale’s considering the big hole Marcus Adams (foot) has left down back. It’s hard to envisage a happy ending to this match for the Magpies, who lose Isaac Quaynor (illness) and Jeremy Howe (managed).
RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 47 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Brisbane by 28 points.
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NORTH MELBOURNE v SYDNEY (Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7.40pm local time)
How easily could North coach David Noble use the fact that Sydney has decided to rest Lance Franklin against his team as motivation for the Kangaroos to spring an upset? Transforming that selection decision into a sign of disrespect for the bottom-placed team is a coaching tactic that’s been around since Adam was a boy. But can Noble’s team rise to the challenge and translate that perceived slight on to the scoreboard? Probably not. The Roos were very good for a half last week against Richmond, but were ultimately steamrolled by a side battling just to stay in the finals race itself. Despite suffering an unexpected loss to the Saints last week, Sydney should be good enough to rebound as it tries to stay in the hunt for a top-four berth.
RONNY’S TIP: Sydney by 32 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Sydney by 8 points.
MELBOURNE v ADELAIDE (MCG, Sunday 2.10pm local time)
After a scratchy month or so, the Demons righted their ship with a 98-point smashing of Gold Coast a few weeks ago, and then looked back to their early-season best in their lightning-interrupted encounter with West Coast last round (despite a hairy final 15 minutes). They now find themselves back on top of the ladder with their confidence renewed. And their forward line looks like it is finally functioning properly, with Ben Brown as the centrepiece. Their next assignment should be a fait accompli, assisted by the fact that Adelaide ruckman Reilly O’Brien (knee) is out injured, paving the way for a dominant Max Gawn display. Simon Goodwin’s men also have the little matter of avenging their controversial loss to the Crows from earlier in the year, which ended their unbeaten run to start the season.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 50 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 40 points.
GOLD COAST v ESSENDON (Kardinia Park, Sunday 3.20pm local time)
Curiously, the Lions are allowed to host the Magpies 20 hours earlier in Brisbane, but the Suns were not given the go-ahead to face the Bombers at their home ground Metricon Stadium. That’s a huge win for Essendon, which has been on the rough end of the COVID stick in recent times as it was forced to relocate to Queensland recently and also play one of its home games against GWS on the Gold Coast. And with just two points separating the ninth-placed Bombers from the top eight, it’s a timely free kick. Spare a thought for the Suns, who are playing a “home game” at a ground where they’ve lost all seven of their matches by an average of 72 points. The Bombers’ midfield produced its best performance of the year last week, spectacularly outgunning the vaunted Bulldogs engine room, and if they bring that same intensity to the table this week, with Dyson Heppell and Andrew McGrath both named in their extended squad, they’re going to be very hard to stop. The Suns would also be keen to ensure their former player Peter Wright, whom they gave away for a fourth-round pick, doesn’t replicate his stunning match-winning performance from round 21.
RONNY’S TIP: Essendon by 27 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Essendon by 10 points.
FREMANTLE v WEST COAST (Optus Stadium, Sunday 3.10pm local time)
If ever the Dockers would want to arrest their humiliating losing streak against their arch nemesis, then this week would be the week, with their finals hopes well and truly on the line. It’s been six years since Fremantle tasted victory against “Big Brother”, having now lost the last 11 meetings, which is a Western Derby record – easily surpassing the previous record, achieved when the Dockers entered the AFL, West Coast winning the first nine encounters. But unfortunately for Justin Longmuir’s side, its star-studded injury list has just been compounded by Nathan Wilson’s unavailability due to a hamstring complaint and, more significantly, the suspension of emerging midfield star Andrew Brayshaw. Freo looks like a spent force if its performance against Brisbane is anything to go by, and with the Eagles getting a bit of a twinkle back in their eye late against Melbourne last week, they should make it an even dozen in a row against their local rivals, especially with Tom Barrass, Liam Ryan and Luke Shuey all named in their extended squad.
RONNY’S TIP: West Coast by 22 points.
ROCO’S TIP: West Coast by 24 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 112
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 115