Gary Rohan celebrates his match-winning goal for Geelong against the Western Bulldogs last year. Photo: AFL MEDIA
FREMANTLE v MELBOURNE (Optus Stadium, Friday 6.10pm local time)
What better way to kick off a round of football than with a contest between two sides battling for a top-four spot? All of a sudden, after both teams looked on track for the double chance for most of the season, those projections are not looking as rock solid as they once did. With four weeks to go, Freo has slipped to fifth, with matches against the Demons and Bulldogs still to come, and while the Demons are still second, they’re inside the top four by only two points and face a veritable minefield of heavyweight challengers in the Dockers, Magpies, Blues and Lions in the run home. Suffice to say, this is a massive match for both teams. The drop-off from Melbourne has been startling. They Demons have lost five of their last eight games, and laziness, selfishness and complacency are now affecting them far too often. Meanwhile, the Dockers have struggled to kick a big score in recent times, and Melbourne still has the second-best defence in the league despite its woes. Freo’s is ranked No.1, but the Demons look more potent in attack. The hosts welcome back Rory Lobb, but lose captain Nat Fyfe (hamstring), and while the Dees’ backline is further bolstered by the inclusions of Jake Lever and Jayden Hunt, they will have to make do without James Harmes (concussion). Melbourne has a brilliant record at Optus Stadium, winning their last four there, including the 2021 grand final, and should be able to continue that run going in what is their first meeting at the venue with the Dockers.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 11 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 10 points.
COLLINGWOOD v PORT ADELAIDE (MCG, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
It almost defies belief that the Magpies’ winning run is still going. But the “Cardiac Kids” did it yet again last week, pipping Essendon at the death with a goal after the siren from Jamie Elliott that will be talked about for many years to come. It was the Pies’ “Zaharakis” moment, and incredibly their record in games decided by under two goals is now 8-1. They sit in the top four with a measly percentage of just 106.4, with six of their last eight victories won by a margin of seven or fewer points. The belief in this team is through the roof. But they will again be put to the test this week, because while the Power are out of finals contention, thanks largely to their 0-5 start, since then they’ve resembled anything but a bottom team. And that rang true again last week when they pushed ladder-leading Geelong right to the edge before falling short in one of the games of the year. The week prior to that, they seriously tested reigning premier Melbourne, too. If Ken Hinkley’s men bring that same energy and tenacity this week, there’s no reason they can’t be the ones who finally bring Collingwood’s winning streak to an end.
RONNY’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 9 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 26 points.
SYDNEY v GWS (SCG, Saturday 2.10pm local time)
The Giants added another disappointing chapter to their dreadful season last week in going down by six goals to the Blues. They’ve now lost five of their last six games to languish in 15th position with just five wins to their credit. Encouragingly, though, they do welcome back big guns Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield, Jesse Hogan, Tom Green and Harry Perryman for the 24th Sydney derby. But it’s not going to be enough. The Swans are in sizzling form, having won six of their last eight games, including victories over Melbourne, Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs. Anything can happen when these two fierce rivals lock horns, and their last six meetings have been split 3-3, but the Swans are neck deep in the top four race, and with so much on the line, it would be surprising if they couldn’t notch back-to-back wins against GWS for the first time since 2018.
RONNY’S TIP: Sydney by 25 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Sydney by 36 points.
ST KILDA v HAWTHORN (Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4.35pm local time)
All of a sudden, the Hawks are starting to build some momentum. With three wins on the trot, they’re now gunning for four in a row for the first time since 2019-20. With St Kilda still fighting for a spot in the top eight, Hawthorn looms as a tricky opponent indeed. But with Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney to come after this game, it cannot be overstated enough how much of a must-win this game is for St Kilda. The Saints weren’t overly convincing against West Coast last week, but they did get the job done and live to fight another day. And it must be said, the Hawks’ last three wins have all come against bottom-four sides. But St Kilda is the king of shooting itself in the foot, as it has done on a couple of occasions already this year. Brett Ratten’s men should win, but it’s hard to back them in with full confidence. Meanwhile, it’s great to see Dan Hannebery back in the senior team for the first time since Round 23 last year.
RONNY’S TIP: St Kilda by 15 points.
ROCO’S TIP: St Kilda by 2 points.
GEELONG v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Kardinia Park, Saturday 7.25pm local time)
Just when it looked like the Bulldogs’ season was going to peter out into the abyss like the last time they followed up a grand final appearance in 2017, the boys from The Kennel received a massive jolt by way of their sensational comeback win against Melbourne last week. They executed a six-goal turnaround in what was a huge result which catapulted them back into the top eight. It served as former No.1 pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan’s arrival game as he played the match-winner with a career-high five goals. While Josh Bruce hasn’t done much on the stat sheet since returning, his mere presence in the forward line was crucial last week in allowing Ugle-Hagan to get off the chain. But the challenges don’t let up for the Dogs, and this week they return to the scene of their heartbreaking after-the-siren loss to the Cats last year when Gary Rohan sank them with a ripper from the boundary. These two sides have actually matched up well on each other in recent years, with five of their last six games decided by 16 points or fewer. Like the Pies, Geelong heads into this contest on the back of a nine-game winning streak and, similarly to Collingwood, the Cats have dug deep and found a way to win a couple of times against Richmond and Port Adelaide during that period. Their forward line is lethal and the Bulldogs’ curious omission of Alex Keath with Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron on the opposite team does not bode well for the visitors. The loss of Adam Treloar (calf) is also a blow for the Dogs. The Cats have lost a couple of important soldiers too in Zach Tuohy (COVID) and Rhys Stanley (knee), but the return of Tom Stewart will be huge, and it’ll be interesting to see how recruit Jon Ceglar goes in his long-awaited club debut. It’s been 19 years since the Doggies won at Kardinia Park, having lost their last 10 games there by an average of 31 points, and that streak should continue given the spectacular form the Cats find themselves in.
RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 23 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 18 points.
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ADELAIDE v CARLTON (Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7pm local time)
The Crows are another team just counting down the days until the season ends. It’s been another disappointing campaign for Matthew Nicks’ men, and it will take something extraordinary for them to avoid a fifth-straight defeat this weekend. The loss of defender Tom Doedee (soreness) with dynamic Carlton forward duo Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay for the Crows to deal with is ominous. The Blues welcome back ruckman Marc Pittonet for his first game in three months after recovering from a knee injury, and with a top-four spot in their reach, they should notch their first win at Adelaide Oval from six attempts and their first win in the South Australian capital since 2013.
RONNY’S TIP: Carlton by 40 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Carlton by 22 points.
GOLD COAST v WEST COAST (Metricon Stadium, Sunday 1.10pm local time)
This should be a pretty straightforward day at the office for the Suns. As part of their evolution and maturity as a team this year, they have shown on more than one occasion that they are capable of beating weaker teams by margins they deserve to be beaten by, and just like the Hawks, Kangaroos and Crows before them, the Eagles are likely headed for a similar fate. West Coast really has been atrocious this year. Its effort and fitness levels have nosedived, and its senior players have struggled to have an impact on too many occasions. The Eagles are rudderless and will be no match for the improved Suns.
RONNY’S TIP: Gold Coast by 42 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Gold Coast by 30 points.
RICHMOND v BRISBANE (MCG, Sunday 3.20pm local time)
The wheels have fallen off Richmond dramatically. After beating Carlton in Round 14 to sit sixth on the ladder and seemingly ready to launch an assault on September, the Tigers have crashed in a heap, winning just one of their last five games to tumble to 10th. Their three losses in that period have been by four points or fewer, and their draw with the Dockers last week did not help their cause. When you consider they also lost to Sydney by a goal in Round 11, you could almost say the Tigers are the inverse Magpies this season. The Lions are third, but still don’t seem like the genuine article when talking about premiership contenders. They have won three of their last four games, but it’s been eight long years since they’ve won at the MCG. In fact, they’ve only won two of their last 22 there, and have lost their last 10 games at the venue. If Brisbane is any hope of making a serious dent in the finals, it desperately needs to taste victory at the MCG in the lead-up to serve as a confidence booster if it returns there in September, and this is its last chance to do so. Tom Lynch returns for Richmond, but it’s now or never for the Lions at the home of football. It’s almost like a final, that’s how important it is for Chris Fagan’s men.
RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 13 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond 6 points.
ESSENDON v NORTH MELBOURNE (Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4.40pm local time)
The less said about last week’s horror show the better from a Bomber perspective. Losses don’t get much more devastating than that. The only saving grace for Essendon is that its season was done and dusted long ago. Imagine a finals spot was on the line against the Magpies? That result would’ve been too hard to bear for the black-and-red faithful in those circumstances. Calamitous final play aside, the Bombers did a lot right against the Pies, and for much of the afternoon looked on track for a commendable comeback win against a team now in the top four. As Essendon tends to do, its form has surged in the second half of the season (for some reason the Dons are allergic to playing this well in the first half of seasons) and with North’s mini bump following coach David Noble’s departure well and truly obliterated by Hawthorn last week, the Bombers should encounter few issues winning eight in a row against North for the first time since 1944.
RONNY’S TIP: Essendon by 37 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Essendon by 38 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 111
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 114