Patrick Cripps gets a handball away during the Blues’ and Cats’ most recent clash in Round 17 last year. Photo: AAP
WESTERN BULLDOGS v ST KILDA (Marvel Stadium, Friday 7.50pm local time)
September has come early for these two mid-ladder sides who are battling to keep their finals hopes alive. This contest is almost like an elimination final for the Bulldogs and Saints who are 10th and ninth on the ladder respectively. But given St Kilda is outside the top eight only by percentage and the Dogs are a game adrift, there is more urgency surrounding this contest for last year’s runners-up. Just like the previous time they made a grand final in 2016, it’s been quite the fall from grace for the Bulldogs the following season. Last week their coach Luke Beveridge said the “pointy end” of the competition had gone past them. Ordinarily you might think that was a mind game designed to spark his group, but he might have just been telling the truth. The only scalps of note they’ve taken in 2022 have been Sydney and Collingwood, and their record against top-eight sides is 2-6. More recently, one of the Bulldogs’ biggest issues has been their first quarters. They’ve been way too inconsistent in the way they’ve started games, finding themselves 33, 19 and 37 points down at quarter-time against Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney respectively in three of their last five games. The Saints have their own issues, too. Their inability to translate their dominance of general play in the first half last week against Fremantle into a match-winning lead was damning. They, too, limp into this game in ordinary form, having just won one of their last five games. Who wants to play finals badly enough? We’re certainly going to find out one way or another. The Dogs have suffered a huge blow with the loss of Aaron Naughton (COVID), but with Bailey Smith and Josh Bruce back, and St Kilda losing one of their most consistent midfielders in Seb Ross (COVID), the pendulum probably tips in favour of the Bulldogs.
RONNY’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 12 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 16 points.
ADELAIDE v COLLINGWOOD (Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1.15pm local time)
Collingwood continues to rack up the wins, but there have certainly been signs in recent times that it could be running out of puff and heading for its first loss in two months. In the past three games, the Magpies narrowly avoided the upset result of the season against the beleaguered Kangaroos, they pinched victory from the jaws of defeat against Gold Coast, and almost blew a six-goal lead against GWS. But to their credit, they keep finding ways to win, and are now chasing an eighth consecutive win for the first time in 10 years. They have developed a reputation as kings of the close ones this year, with five of their last six wins by 11 points or less, and they also beat Essendon by 11 points on Anzac Day. It’s a remarkable record when things get tight. And luckily for them, they come up against one of the most disappointing teams of the year this weekend. Adelaide finds itself languishing in the bottom four once again, fresh from another dreadful performance last week. Hawthorn should have been earmarked by the Crows as a huge chance for a win, but they failed their task miserably. With Darcy Moore back to stiffen up Collingwood’s backline (especially after North youngster Nick Larkey played one of his best games of the year last week with five goals), the Magpies should continue their unlikely push for a top-four spot.
RONNY’S TIP: Collingwood by 17 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 20 points.
GWS v BRISBANE (Manuka Oval, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
The Lions might have been smashed by injury and COVID last week, making nine changes altogether, but they still had their chances to beat the bottom-four Bombers. However, they fell short by 10 points, and they were let down particularly at the centre bounces where they conceded a whopping 38 points. That was an inexcusable performance given their midfield was the one line relatively unscathed by the selection mayhem. Coach Chris Fagan would no doubt be driving that message home to his on-ball brigade, and while they lose Marcus Adams to injury and Oscar McInerney (COVID), crucially they do regain key players Harris Andrews, Darcy Gardiner, Keidean Coleman, Daniel McStay, Callum Ah Chee and Noah Answerth. The Giants were downright woeful last week, managing just three goals in what was their second-lowest ever score (not including season 2020). They appear to just be counting down the days until the end of the season now.
RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 27 points.
ROCO’S TIP: GWS by 2 points.
NORTH MELBOURNE v RICHMOND (Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4.35pm local time)
Finally! After three months the Kangaroos showed some sustained competitive spirit last week, coming close to causing the boilover of the year against Collingwood. It was a truly commendable performance from a team that was performing as badly as Fitzroy in its final season in 1996. They dictated terms in the first three quarters and had sizeable advantages in contested possessions 96-78, clearances 28-17 and inside 50s 43-32 heading into the final quarter. But despite getting out to a five-goal lead, they ran out of steam when it mattered most. And the seven-point loss wasn’t enough to save coach David Noble his job, as they had lost their previous 13 games by an average of 63 points and broke the all-time record for most losses in a row by 47 points or more (11 games). Although their losing run has now extended to 14 games, could they be further freed up by the “new coach bounce” that so often invigorates teams once a caretaker coach takes over? It will be very interesting to see, especially after the Tigers produced a vintage performance from their bad old days as they squandered a 40-point lead to lose to Gold Coast after the siren. This time, Noah Anderson played the role of Karmichael Hunt. And Richmond has its issues with Tom Lynch (hamstring) and Ivan Soldo (thumb) joining Dustin Martin (hamstring) and Kane Lambert (hip/achilles) on the sidelines. Toby Nankervis (knee) has been named, but would have to be under a cloud, and that could definitely help North given the form their ruckman Todd Goldstein has been in. The Tigers do get some respite with Nick Vlastuin, Noah Balta, Trent Cotchin and Josh Gibcus all returning, but they would not want to take this game lightly.
RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 22 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 42 points.
CARLTON v GEELONG (MCG, Saturday 7.25pm local time)
Comfortably the match of the round, this promises to be an absolute ripsnorter. In the one corner we have the wily old champion in Geelong sitting on top of the ladder once again at the sharp end of the season, and in the other we have the newcomer Carlton, banging on the door of the top four, desperate to prove its premiership legitimacy. And while the Cats team is filled with veterans, they must be given credit for how they’ve continued to reinvent and replenish themselves this year, with the additions of Tyson Stengle and Sam De Koning, and the way they’re using the likes of Zach Tuohy, Tom Atkins, Mark Blicavs, Cam Guthrie and Mitch Duncan in different roles. It has really revitalised them, and their management of Patrick Dangerfield could prove to be a masterstroke based on his 31-disposal performance against Melbourne last week. Geelong is riding high after taking down the premiership favourites, and while Carlton has shown in patches during the year that it could be capable of mixing it with the heavyweights of the competition, it has been mired in an extended patch of inconsistent form which has seen it go win-loss since Round 10. The Blues will give a good account of themselves, but the Cats will prove too strong in the end.
RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 16 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 6 points.
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FREMANTLE v SYDNEY (Optus Stadium, Saturday 5.30pm local time)
Speaking of inconsistent teams, what is to be made of the Swans? On some occasions they have looked like absolute world beaters with their wins over Melbourne at the MCG, Geelong and Richmond. And then on other occasions they couldn’t have looked any different with their losses to Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Essendon. You literally don’t know which Sydney team is going to rock up from week to week, which is a big reason it finds itself in seventh spot scrapping to shore up a spot in the top eight. The Swans must now prepare themselves for one of the hardest trips in footy. The Dockers are becoming one of the best teams in the competition and the reintegration of dual Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe is starting to reap rewards after a predictably rocky start. His mix of playing forward and midfield is beginning to trouble opposition sides, most notably St Kilda last week. Sydney is definitely capable of winning this game, as its win over the Demons proved. But like Carlton, it’s far too inconsistent of late. Conversely, the Dockers have won five of their last six, and seven of nine at their home ground this year. They’re not going to be easy to beat.
RONNY’S TIP: Fremantle by 23 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Fremantle by 4 points.
HAWTHORN v WEST COAST (MCG, Sunday 1.10pm local time)
The suggestions that the Eagles would trouble teams in the back half of the year (that may or may not have even popped up in this very column) were made to look downright foolish last week as Carlton thumped them by 63 points in Perth. Astonishingly, West Coast was held to two scoreless quarters and, outside of the second term, scored a measly 1.2.8. It truly was a performance straight out of its horrendous first half of the season, and undid much of the reasonable work it had done in the previous month. And with Nic Naitanui (knee), Willie Rioli, who is mourning the death of his father, and Jack Petruccelle (hamstring) all out, it’s hard to see them grabbing the four points this week. Hawthorn isn’t exactly an ominous proposition, but at home at the MCG, should be capable of making it back-to-back wins for the first time since Round 2.
RONNY’S TIP: Hawthorn by 28 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Hawthorn by 32 points.
MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE (Alice Springs, Sunday 2.50pm local time)
Is it time for the Demons to press the panic button? This writer doesn’t think so. Yes, they’ve lost four of their last six games, but there’s certainly no shame in losing to the Cats down in Geelong, and they were quite impressive in their previous two games which they won well against Brisbane and Adelaide. Granted, the connection between their midfield and forward line could be better, but when the whips are cracking at the business end of the year, don’t be surprised if they rediscover their best form at the right time. But more immediately, Clayton Oliver (thumb) and Harrison Petty (COVID) are two huge losses, while Jake Bowey cops his first axing since playing his first game in Round 20 last year. Meanwhile, the Power have named Steven Motlop, Xavier Duursma and Trent McKenzie in their extended squad. They kept their finals flame flickering with their comprehensive takedown of GWS last week, but can ill-afford too many missteps between now and the end of the year if they want to qualify for the top eight. They’re not without a shot here, but the Demons on the rebound will be a tough assignment.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 24 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 10 points.
ESSENDON v GOLD COAST (Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4.40pm local time)
The Suns’ pursuit of a maiden finals berth continues following their incredible win over Richmond last week. Like the Dogs and the Power, Gold Coast sits just a game outside the top eight with six matches remaining. There’s a reason coach Stuart Dew was re-signed last week – this is the best the Suns have looked in almost a decade. They genuinely look like they’re on the verge of a period of sustained finals footy. But this week they face a side that has well and truly broken the shackles following a disastrous start to the year. The Bombers have turned things around dramatically to win three of their last four games against a clutch of finals aspirants in St Kilda, Sydney and Brisbane. Their confidence is the highest it’s been all year and they are certainly going to provide a stern test for Gold Coast. Despite the huge strides forward they’ve taken this year, the Suns have struggled away from home, winning just two of seven games, and that could be a key factor that plays into Essendon’s hands.
RONNY’S TIP: Essendon by 7 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Essendon by 8 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 98
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 101