Brisbane gets around James Madden after a goal in the Lions’ round 10 win over the Tigers. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
FREMANTLE v GEELONG (Optus Stadium, Thursday 6.10pm local time)
Fremantle gets its first prime time Thursday/Friday night game in five years, and it’s been thoroughly deserved. Having won three of their last four games, the Dockers are back in the top eight for the first time since round six. Something special is clearly building under second-year coach Justin Longmuir, and resilience has been a standout characteristic. However, if there is a knock on the Dockers this season, it’s their poor form against the best teams. With just one win (by two points) from six attempts against top-eight sides, Freo has plenty still to prove and a long way to go on its journey. So what better way to test its bona fides than a marquee clash against premiership hopeful Geelong? The Cats are one of the form teams of the competition with eight wins from their last nine outings, and get back in-form skipper Joel Selwood. They do, however, lose Lachie Henderson (personal reasons) and Gary Rohan (corked leg), which isn’t insignificant. Geelong’s interstate record hasn’t been great this year (1-3), and neither is its overall record at Optus Stadium (1-4). But the last time these two sides met, the Cats beat Fremantle by 32 points in Perth, and kept the Dockers to their second-lowest score in their history (2.4.16) so this assignment should hold few fears for them.
RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 17 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 2 points.
RICHMOND v BRISBANE (MCG, Friday 7.50pm local time)
To quote the great grunge band Alice In Chains: “It’s over now.” The mighty Richmond dynasty came tumbling down on Sunday and was left in a smouldering heap by the Magpies, who made it four losses in a row for the Tigers for the first time since 2017 (including three on the trot against bottom-10 teams). And their once-impregnable fortress of the MCG, where they won 22 in a row between 2017-18, has been breached with three consecutive losses at the venue for the first time in five years. Their manic pressure and ability to score from turnover made fleeting returns for a half or so against Collingwood, but those two key pillars which defined the Tigers throughout their premiership run have been sorely lacking for far too long, hence their freefall down the ladder to 12th spot. And it might be club champion Jack Riewoldt’s 300th game, but with almost half of its best 22 either ruled out or in some doubt, it’s hard to see Richmond turning things around this week, let alone against premiership contender Brisbane on the rebound. And while the Lions are facing their own personnel issues, with crucial bookends Eric Hipwood (knee) and Marcus Adams (foot) out injured, they should be good enough to put the final nail in Richmond’s coffin for season 2021. It’s also a golden opportunity for Brisbane to get some much-needed exposure at the MCG in the lead-up to the finals, especially as they haven’t played there since March 2020 and haven’t won there since 2014, with their last nine games at the venue ending in defeat.
RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 14 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 6 points.
GWS v SYDNEY (Mars Stadium, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
For the second year in a row, a Sydney derby will be played outside New South Wales due to the impacts of COVID. Last year, the two sides met in Perth, and this year they’ll lock horns in Ballarat, of all places. What to make of the Giants? The fluctuations in their last five games have been dramatic – they scored impressive victories over premiership favourite Melbourne and Carlton, suffered shock losses to lowly Gold Coast and Hawthorn, and drew with last-placed North Melbourne. It’s a real head-scratcher. Meanwhile, the Swans are riding high after back-to-back wins over finals contender West Coast and flag fancies the Bulldogs. GWS does have the wood over Sydney, winning four of the last five meetings, including a stunning upset in round five earlier this year, so should take some confidence from that, and have a leg up on the Swans having played in Ballarat already last round, so will be more familiar with the ground. While Stephen Coniglio should make his long-awaited return, Lachie Whitfield (concussion) is a huge loss for the Giants, and since round nine, they’re ranked 17th in the competition for scores per game from turnovers (-17.3) while the Swans are third in that category (+13.4).
RONNY’S TIP: Sydney by 9 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Sydney by 22 points.
MELBOURNE v HAWTHORN (MCG, Saturday 4.35pm local time)
The top-of-the-table Demons should have few issues in disposing of the Hawks this week, although Melbourne fans will be a tad nervous considering their three losses have all come against bottom-10 sides – Adelaide, Collingwood and GWS – while they were recently pushed to the edge by Essendon, too. Playing the very best teams seems to bring out the best in the Demons, who are now a sparkling 7-0 against the top eight after their sensational victory against the Power in Adelaide last week. The Dees tend to “play with their food” against the weaker teams, but it would be surprising to see the Hawks put up any meaningful resistance considering they are now missing basically their entire backline – Will Day (back), Blake Hardwick (hamstring), Jarman Impey (ankle), Changkuoth Jiath (knee), Jack Scrimshaw (concussion) and James Sicily (knee) – as well as Jack Gunston (back) and Chad Wingard (hamstring). The end of the season can’t come quickly enough for them.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 28 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 40 points.
GOLD COAST v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Metricon Stadium, Saturday 4.35pm local time)
Full props to the Suns, they have responded to fierce (and justified) criticism in recent weeks with unexpected and equally impressive wins over Richmond and GWS. The Tigers and Giants had six and nine-game winning streaks respectively heading into their recent games against Gold Coast, so that made the Suns’ wins even more meritorious. The second-placed Doggies were left reeling on the weekend by an upset loss to the Swans, which prevented them from taking top spot on the ladder. But each time they’ve suffered a setback this year, they’ve responded well the next week, and with Josh Dunkley (shoulder), and perhaps Aaron Naughton (concussion), back in the side, this game should be no exception.
RONNY’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 32 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 32 points.
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ST KILDA v PORT ADELAIDE (Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7.25pm local time)
The Saints’ season looked like it was dead and buried in Cairns five weeks ago when they capitulated in spectacular fashion to Adelaide. But three wins in a row, most notably against Brisbane in Queensland last week, has brought Brett Ratten’s side back from the brink and instead knocking on the door of the top eight. It’s been an incredible turnaround built largely on the back of a ferocious attack on the ball and the man. It’s got St Kilda looking like a very different team to the one plodding along in the first 13 rounds – so much so that the Saints have had the No.1 ranked defence in the league in the last four rounds. All of a sudden, this game isn’t as easy for Port Adelaide as it may have looked a short month ago. The Power are trying to stay in touch with the top four, so it’s a huge contest for them as well. Their job will be made a little tougher without Zak Butters (knee) yet again, but to their credit, they have dealt with sides ranked below them brilliantly all year, going 11-1 against teams sixth or lower on the ladder, and they’re more than capable of putting the brakes on the Saints’ purple patch.
RONNY’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 12 points.
ROCO’S TIP: St Kilda by 16 points.
NORTH MELBOURNE v ESSENDON (Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1.10pm local time)
It wasn’t so long ago that pundits were predicting a winless season for the Kangaroos. And while they still might be sitting on the bottom of the ladder, with 3.5 wins, and a handful of respectable losses from their past eight matches, they are a very different proposition to the side that began the season 0-8. If the Bombers think they’re going to get a similar ride to the one when they smashed North by 72 points eight weeks ago, they should probably think again. North is riding high following its best performance of the year – a stunning victory over West Coast in Perth – and its form surge comes at an uncomfortable time for Essendon, which legitimately finds itself right in the thick of the finals race. Hard nut Jed Anderson could return for the Kangas, while Essendon is hopeful skipper Dyson Heppell is deemed fit after thumb surgery last week. The Bombers have shown quite a lot of maturity this year in the way they’ve dealt with teams lower on the ladder and will probably prove too strong for the up-and-about Roos.
RONNY’S TIP: Essendon by 22 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Essendon by 30 points.
COLLINGWOOD v CARLTON (MCG, Sunday 3.20pm local time)
Memo to Carlton: Make sure you have a big lead at three-quarter time, because if you don’t, you run the risk of getting swamped by a black-and-white avalanche. In their last two final terms, the Magpies have outscored their opponents by a combined 70 points (12.8 to 1.4) – a figure which swells to a whopping 88 points (20.12 to 6.8) when you add their previous two games. But the good news for the Blues is that Collingwood has only won two of those four matches. The 260th clash between the league’s biggest and oldest rivals doesn’t quite have the same lustre about it given both sides are in the bottom seven of the ladder with just 11 wins between them, but these games are always big occasions. Having lost their last five against Collingwood, and 12 of their last 14 meetings, the Blues have a good chance to buck that trend this weekend, especially with Liam Jones (back) and Zac Fisher (ankle) good chances of returning. They tend to do pretty well against weaker teams as well.
RONNY’S TIP: Carlton by 15 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 10 points.
ADELAIDE v WEST COAST (Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4.10pm local time)
After showing quite a bit of improvement this year, the Crows undid almost all of their good work with an insipid display last week which saw them register their lowest-ever score (2.9.21) against Essendon. To be frank, they were lucky to escape with just a 63-point final margin. And after starting the season 3-1, they’ve now lost 10 of their last 12 games. But in a twist of fate, they come up against a team that has completely lost its mojo and looks a shadow of its former glorious self. Just when you thought the Eagles’ campaign couldn’t reach a lower point than their atrocious showing against Sydney in Geelong, they go out and lose to bottom-placed North in Perth last round. West Coast has now lost three matches in a row and has to head back out on the road, where it has a lamentable 2-5 record – just one of those wins coming against a side with true home ground advantage (the other was against Carlton at the SCG). Make no mistake, the Eagles are gettable, especially if Taylor Walker (neck) passes a fitness test.
RONNY’S TIP: Adelaide by 4 points.
ROCO’S TIP: West Coast by 18 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 90
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 94