Melbourne pair Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver celebrate a goal last year against Essendon. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
BRISBANE v GEELONG (Gabba, Thursday 7.30pm local time)
The beauty about rolling fixtures is that each round is basically guaranteed to kick off with a bang, and this weekend is no exception with yet another top-four blockbuster getting the party started. The Cats could claim top spot with victory in this one, while the Lions could reach second, so the stakes are huge for these two heavyweights. Brisbane is in seriously good form, winning eight of its last nine games by an average of 42 points, and Geelong isn’t exactly battling either, victorious in its last six matches. But after dropping their first game at the Gabba to Sydney in a round one stunner, normal transmission has resumed, with the Lions winning their last five games at their home fortress by an average of 44 points – make no mistake, “The Gabbatoir” is back. The hosts regain captain Dayne Zorko, while the Cats are bolstered by Lachie Henderson, but they lose Mitch Duncan (knee) which is a huge blow. Since winning their first game in round three, the Lions have outscored their opponents by 15.6 points per game from stoppages – ranked No.1 in the competition. This promises to be an absolutely cracking contest, with mouth-watering individual match-ups spread out all over the ground, but on its home turf, Brisbane will be hard to stop.
RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 13 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 6 points.
RICHMOND v ST KILDA (MCG, Friday 7.50pm local time)
Finally, the footy is back in Melbourne for the first time in four weeks. And for the first time in five weeks, Melburnians can actually attend games. But the drought-breaking clash for the Victorian capital doesn’t exactly promise to be a memorable one. The last time these two sides met, the Tigers throttled the Saints by 86 points a mere 10 weeks ago. It’s hard to see the gap closing dramatically in such a short period of time. No doubt Richmond isn’t in spectacular form, but all of its losses have been against top-eight sides. The Tigers are 6-0 against the bottom 10 with an average winning margin of 35 points, and the Saints, fresh from arguably their most embarrassing performance of the season against Adelaide, shouldn’t pose too much of a threat.
RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 36 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 32 points.
NORTH MELBOURNE v GOLD COAST (Blundstone Arena, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
The Kangaroos might be bottom of the ladder with just a win and a draw to their credit, but since round six, apart from their blowout loss to Essendon, they have continued to show plenty of spirit and fight in most of their games. David Noble’s men have just lacked that necessary amount of class and polish to get the job done. But this week they should have no such worries, because when it comes to desire and heart, they absolutely tower over the lacklustre and apathetic Suns. Ten points might separate these two teams on the ladder, but that will matter little as the Kangaroos have shown they are a different side in Tasmania with a win, a draw and two competitive showings against premiership fancies Melbourne and Brisbane. Conversely, the Suns have lost all five of their games in Tasmania by an average of 51 points. Victories have been few and far between for North, but since 2019, their star midfielder Ben Cunnington has averaged 27 disposals, 17 contested possessions, eight clearances and four tackles in wins. So watch out for him to have a huge day.
RONNY’S TIP: North Melbourne by 24 points.
ROCO’S TIP: North Melbourne by 20 points.
COLLINGWOOD v FREMANTLE (Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
This game was originally a twilight fixture, but was brought forward to allow the Dockers to fly straight back to WA after the game. It’s the beginning of a new dawn at the Magpies, with the post-Nathan Buckley era officially starting and interim coach Robert Harvey taking over the reins. We already saw how freed up mentally the players have become in their shock victory over flag favourite Melbourne a fortnight ago, and there’s no reason to suggest that air of rejuvenation was just a one-off, particularly as the Pies had built up some decent form leading up to that spectacular send-off for Buckley. Darcy Moore (knee) is a massive loss, but Collingwood should regain Brodie Grundy (neck), and might even get Taylor Adams (knee) back, too. Freo’s ability to remain a game outside the top eight while battling one of the worst injury lists in the competition has been truly admirable. But as we’ve seen all year, they’re a different side away from home (1-5), compared to Optus Stadium (5-2). And while Nat Fyfe (shoulder), Matt Taberner (ankle) and Griffin Logue (concussion) could all return, they’ll struggle to prevent their run of seven consecutive losses at this stadium from being extended. Collingwood is the best defensive team in the bottom 10, conceding just 77.8 points per game (ranked sixth in the AFL) and the manner in which the Magpies picked apart Melbourne’s vaunted backline was truly astonishing.
RONNY’S TIP: Collingwood by 21 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 16 points.
PORT ADELAIDE v SYDNEY (Adelaide Oval, Saturday 4.05pm local time)
Originally a night game, this has been brought forward to the twilight timeslot to allow the Swans to fly in and fly out on the same day. And after starting the season so well, and even getting some pen-happy scribes to suggest they could be a shock premiership contender, Sydney is really showing its first signs of struggle for the season, and its spot in the top eight doesn’t look as secure as it did when it was 6-3. Since then, the Swans’ form hasn’t been overly convincing, and their most alarming result of 2021 came two weeks ago when they were utterly outplayed by bottom-two Hawthorn – at the SCG, no less. As this column has already pointed out on a few occasions this year, the Power really struggle against teams that are stronger than they are, but when it comes to teams either around their mark, or a level or two below, they usually have no such problems. Sydney no longer resembles a side pushing for a top-four spot, let alone the flag. Port Adelaide has the wood over the Swans, winning their last four meetings by an average of 31 points, and at home it should have no issue making it five consecutive victories against Sydney for the first time in its history despite losing Robbie Gray (knee).
RONNY’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 22 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 22 points.
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ESSENDON v MELBOURNE (MCG, Saturday 7.25pm local time)
The Demons have endured a very weird month of footy. After winning their first nine matches, they’ve dropped two of their last four games to bottom-seven teams, but sandwiched in between those results were two spectacular victories against fellow premiership threats Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs. It’s a head-scratching formline. But considering Simon Goodwin’s men are still a game clear on top of the ladder, with a perfect 5-0 record against top-eight sides, it’s probably safe to say that they head into this clash as warm favourite. Essendon is undoubtedly an exciting team, and its percentage of 103, despite sitting in 10th spot on the ladder, indicates how competitive it has become in season 2021 as well. But this is a huge step up for the Bombers, who have only beaten one top-eight side so far. The Demons will receive some much-needed added grunt in the middle courtesy of the return of former captain Jack Viney (toe), who has been absent since round six. Melbourne was uncharacteristically shoddy down back against Collingwood last time out, but remains the No.1 ranked defensive side in the competition, while the leaky Bombers are ranked a lowly 14th. That factor alone should go a long way to deciding this contest.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 19 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 24 points.
GWS v HAWTHORN (MCG, Sunday 1.10pm local time)
This game was originally scheduled for Giants Stadium, but got switched to the MCG as a result of Sydney’s latest COVID outbreak. GWS was actually given the choice of which Victorian ground it wanted to play at, and decided on Hawthorn’s home ground. The wisdom of completely conceding home ground advantage is questionable with a top-eight spot in reach, but good on the Giants for adopting an “anywhere, anytime” attitude and gaining as much experience on the very ground where big finals are played will be beneficial (would they have chosen the MCG if Hawthorn was the powerhouse 2013-15 version of itself? Doubtful!) The venue switch definitely tightens things up, and swings the pendulum back the Hawks’ way considerably. But since Round 10, the Giants have been No.4 in the competition for scores per inside 50 (44.9 per cent) while the Hawks have been 16th in that period (39.5). While Hawthorn has looked much better since the mid-season break, smashing Sydney and pushing Essendon right to the end, GWS has already shown this year with its 30-point win over Collingwood that the MCG holds no fears.
RONNY’S TIP: GWS by 8 points.
ROCO’S TIP: GWS by 8 points.
WEST COAST v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Optus Stadium, Sunday 1.20pm local time)
After starting the season like a house on fire with nine wins from their first 10 games, the Doggies are confronted with the most challenging part of their season to date. Having lost two of their last three games, the last one an agonising after-the-siren dagger to the heart against the Cats, they are staring down the barrel of back-to-back losses for the first time this year. And their job has only been made more difficult by having to endure a week of hard quarantine in Joondalup, with their original plan of preparing in Sydney before flying to WA scuppered by the NSW capital’s COVID outbreak. The Eagles showed there is plenty of life still in them in their two games before the mid-season break, first accounting for Carlton despite being decimated by injuries, and then fighting back from 22 points down to defeat Richmond. Furthermore, Tim Kelly, Brad Sheppard, Jeremy McGovern and Luke Shuey are all on the verge of returning from injury, as are Brendon Ah Chee (calf) and Jack Petruccelle (hamstring). This looms as a must-watch contest and with the cavalry returning, the Eagles might just grab the chocolates.
RONNY’S TIP: West Coast by 7 points.
ROCO’S TIP: West Coast by 6 points.
CARLTON v ADELAIDE (Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4.10pm local time)
Carlton’s season is resembling a bottomless pit. Just when you think the Blues can’t go any lower, they outdo themselves. Their performance against GWS, apart from an encouraging spurt in the third quarter, was absolutely unacceptable. After having 13 days to stew over their abysmal effort against West Coast, to come out and lay only 41 tackles compared to the Giants’ 79, while still comfortably losing the disposal count 310-349, was an indictment on that football club. Carlton lacks leadership and has far too many players either in self-preservation mode or not prepared to work hard for the cause. You can’t help but feel the backdrop of the football department review is fuelling a sense of apathy and hopelessness among the playing group, especially as their finals hopes have already gone up in smoke. One man feeling the pressure at the club more than anyone else is coach David Teague. If the Crows win this, he could very well lose his job. If the Crows win well, those odds only increase. Buoyed by an epic comeback win over St Kilda, Adelaide heads into this match-up with its tail up. There’s a big gap in the quality of head space that these two teams find themselves in, and that in itself could be enough to decide this match-up.
RONNY’S TIP: Adelaide by 15 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Adelaide by 2 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 78
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 82