Ronny Lerner’s Previews With Punch: Round 1

Lance Franklin has averaged seven scoring shots in his last nine games against the Western Bulldogs. Photo: GETTY IMAGES

CARLTON v RICHMOND (MCG, Thursday 7.20pm local time)
It’s hard to believe that six months have already passed since the end of last season, but summer has come and gone, and every club’s best laid plans are set to be put to the test for the first time in 2019 this weekend. It all begins on Thursday night with the traditional season opener between the Blues and the Tigers. While Carlton has once again dramatically rejuvenated its playing list, this encounter still looms as a lopsided one. Richmond has won a premiership and minor premiership in the past two seasons and is showing no sign of letting up this year, especially with the addition of former Gold Coast skipper Tom Lynch. Lynch is set to make his debut against the Blues after overcoming major knee surgery, and he will be joined by former Gold Coast teammate, and Saint Maverick Weller in the line-up as well as debutant Noah Balta. Carlton has made 13 changes to the side that took the field in round 23 last year, including six new faces – Nic Newman, Michael Gibbons, Sam Walsh, Mitch McGovern, Alex Fasolo and Will Setterfield. The Blues will be hoping the drastic overhaul finally heralds the beginning of meaningful change to the struggling club’s fortunes after so many false dawns, but a victory against the heavyweights from Punt Road is a bridge too far.
RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 27 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 32 points.

COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG (MCG, Friday 7.50pm local time)
What a tantalising match-up this promises to be – a rising power burning for redemption after coming so agonisingly close to an unexpected premiership last year, against a seemingly fading power out to prove it’s not a spent force just yet. And it’s the midfield battle which will draw most attention. After reuniting with Dayne Beams in the off-season, Collingwood’s engine room is arguably the best in the competition, but the Cats, with the likes of Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Kelly, Menegola, Duncan and even Ablett from time to time, will be keen to show they can still match it with the big boys. Despite missing Taylor Adams (finger), Will Hoskin-Elliott (knee), Matt Scharenberg (knee), Lynden Dunn (knee), Ben Reid (quad) and Daniel Wells (foot), the good news for Collingwood is that Darcy Moore and Jamie Elliott look ready to go, as do Jordan De Goey and Jaidyn Stephenson, while former Bulldog defender Jordan Roughead looks a good chance to make his club debut. Meanwhile, Esava Ratugolea is in some doubt for the Cats after dislocating his finger, while Scott Selwood (hamstring), Zach Tuohy (knee) and Zac Smith (knee) are all unavailable. The Cats have won their last two meetings with the Magpies, but expect Nathan Buckley’s men to turn the tables this time around.
RONNY’S TIP: Collingwood by 17 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 2 points.

MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE (MCG, Saturday 1.45pm local time)
For the first time in a very long time, the Demons head into a season with the tag “premiership contender” attached to their name. And they have a golden opportunity to set the tone for their 2019 campaign against a Port Adelaide side that doesn’t seem to know whether it’s coming or going. The Power went through a dramatic trade period, which saw them gain Scott Lycett, Ryan Burton and Sam Mayes, but lose Chad Wingard, Jared Polec and Jasper Pittard, in a strategy that was probably more future-focused given it landed them three 2018 first-round draft picks as well. Melbourne has some personnel issues heading into this one with key players Steven May (suspended), Jake Lever (knee), Mitch Hannan (knee), Aaron vandenBerg (ankle), Joel Smith (groin) and Kade Kolodjashnij (adductor) all unavailable, but the Demons will be relieved to know that Jack Viney, Nathan Jones and Jake Melksham have all overcome their issues and look likely to play. With Port Adelaide missing Ollie Wines (shoulder), Charlie Dixon (leg/ankle), Hamish Hartlett (knee) and Jarrod Lienert (knee), on top of Paddy Ryder (cheekbone) being in doubt, that’s enough to tip the scales in Melbourne’s favour.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 22 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 28 points.

ADELAIDE v HAWTHORN (Adelaide Oval, Saturday 4.05pm local time)
The Crows will be keen to put a forgettable 2018 season behind them as everything that could have gone wrong, both on and off the field, did go wrong. The 2017 runners-up need a fresh start and heading into their season opener with basically a full list to choose from will be a good confidence booster. The Hawks aren’t as fortunate, with boom recruit Chad Wingard (calf) and Grant Birchall (calf) both unavailable, on top of the well-documented absence of Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell (broken leg). The Hawks have a brilliant recent record against Adelaide, having won nine of their last 10 meetings, including four in the SA capital and three at Adelaide Oval. But Don Pyke’s men will be desperate to put a full stop on their year from hell last year and should get the job done.
RONNY’S TIP: Adelaide by 15 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Adelaide by 10 points.

WESTERN BULLDOGS v SYDNEY (Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7.25pm local time)
This writer expects both teams to struggle in 2019, and wouldn’t be surprised if the Swans missed out on finals. But while this time of year can throw up some unexpected results, Sydney should be safe from that fate this week. The struggling Dogs will be without key players Jason Johannisen (ankle), Bailey Dale (ankle), Dale Morris (knee), Tom Boyd (back) and Lin Jong (hamstring) although the debut of Bailey Smith will be something for their faithful to look forward to. However, Sydney superstar Lance Franklin (groin) is in doubt while teammates Sam Naismith (knee), Daniel Menzel (groin) and Nick Smith (illness/hamstring) are still at least a couple of weeks away from returning to full fitness. The Bulldogs will be hoping Franklin doesn’t play, because he has averaged seven scoring shots in his last nine games against them, including 3.7 goals. In any case, the Swans have won four of their last five games against the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium and that trend should continue on the weekend as they hand their opponents’ Thor jumper the result it deserves!
RONNY’S TIP: Sydney by 21 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Sydney by 18 points.

BRISBANE v WEST COAST (Gabba, Saturday 7.20pm local time)
This looms as arguably the most fun and exciting match-up of the weekend. The up-and-coming Brisbane, which genuinely looks like it is set for rapid improvement this year, against the reigning premiers. If this game was staged in Perth, it probably wouldn’t have garnered that much interest, but the Gabba factor definitely throws a spanner in the works. The Lions’ home ground could prove to be a fortress again this year and the Eagles might be the first visiting team in 2019 to fully grasp how tough it’ll be to take four points away from there. And their job will be made tougher without Andrew Gaff (suspended), Nic Naitanui (knee) or Will Schofield (quad), while Jamie Cripps (toe) and Josh Kennedy (foot) are in doubt. The Lions, on the other hand, are basically full strength and have been further bolstered by the recruitments of Lachie Neale, Jarryd Lyons and Lincoln McCarthy. The Eagles might still have just enough class to squeak home, but they’ll be made to earn it.
RONNY’S TIP: West Coast by 4 points.
ROCO’S TIP: West Coast by 12 points.

ST KILDA v GOLD COAST (Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1.10pm local time)
Given these two sides aren’t expected to win that many games this year, both teams will be looking at this match as a golden opportunity to get what will likely be a rare four premiership points. And while many regard the Suns’ list as one of the worst in VFL/AFL history, they will feel emboldened given the Saints are missing Jack Carlisle (back), Dan Hannebery (hamstring), Dylan Roberton (heart), Nathan Brown (suspended) and Billy Longer (hamstring), while Jack Steven (mental health) and Paddy McCartin (concussion) are still yet to be fully ticked off. However, the Saints’ pre-season form has been promising and they should still be good enough to take care of the wooden spoon favourites.
RONNY’S TIP: St Kilda by 24 points.
ROCO’S TIP: St Kilda by 6 points.

GWS v ESSENDON (Sydney Showground, Sunday 3.20pm local time)
It’s already being billed as the Dylan Shiel grudge match and the Bombers will head into this game buoyed by their recent interstate form, which saw them win five games on the road last year – a feat they had never previously achieved in a single season. One of those victories came against the Giants at this very venue. Like many other sides, both teams have their fair share of personnel issues, GWS forced to do without Callan Ward (knee), Jon Patton (knee), Shane Mumford (suspended) and Zac Langdon (foot), with Aidan Corr (groin) and Nick Haynes (back) highly unlikely. The Bombers, meanwhile, have copped a double hammer blow in the key posts with Joe Daniher (calf) and Cale Hooker (calf) unavailable for at least a month. However, 2019 is the season of no excuses for the Dons. They’re close to full strength and if they’re fair dinkum, this contest has to end with them singing the song.
RONNY’S TIP: Essendon by 11 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Essendon by 14 points.

FREMANTLE v NORTH MELBOURNE (Optus Stadium, Sunday 3.20pm local time)
The Dockers couldn’t have asked for a worse lead-in to round one following the standing down of Jesse Hogan and reports that troubled Harley Bennell has been involved in yet another off-field incident. This is a massive year for Freo and coach Ross Lyon because if results don’t go their way, big changes at the club could be afoot. But with Aaron Sandilands (calf), Stephen Hill (quad), Connor Blakely (hamstring), Brandon Matera (suspended), Brennan Cox (hamstring) and Shane Kersten (foot) all unavailable, their chances of starting off the year on the right foot have taken a hit. The Kangaroos have their injury concerns too, but will almost certainly waste little time in showing off their quartet of new recruits in Jared Polec, Dom Tyson, Aaron Hall and Jasper Pittard. North seems more settled right now than Freo and should be good enough to head back home with a win.
RONNY’S TIP: North Melbourne by 17 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Fremantle by 4 points.