GWS star Stephen Coniglio does his best to evade Mason Cox (left) and Tom Mitchell against Collingwood in Round 9. Photo: AFL PHOTOS

FIRST PRELIMINARY FINAL
COLLINGWOOD v GWS (MCG, Friday 7:50pm local time)
The second-biggest weekend of the year is upon us, one that is widely regarded as the best by footy purists.

Both matches will be played at stadiums packed with supporters, rather than the large percentage of corporates and sponsors who attend the grand final.

However, unlike the previous six finals that have come and gone, the remaining four teams are all playing for a spot in this year’s premiership decider.

And you could barely have asked for two more unexpected preliminary finals if you tried.

While Collingwood and Brisbane progressing to the final four came as no surprise given they were the best two teams from the home-and-away season, it’s their respective opponents, GWS and Carlton, who have stunned the footy world by making it this far. More about the Lions and Blues later.

First up, we take a look at the Magpies and Giants who are battling to make it to their first grand final since 2018 and 2019 respectively.

GWS made it to the last Saturday in September four years ago after shocking the more-fancied Collingwood in a titanic preliminary final by four points at the MCG.

Can history repeat on Friday night? You certainly wouldn’t rule it out.

Since slipping into the bottom four in Round 12 with a terrible 4-8 record, the Giants under first-year coach Adam Kingsley have undergone a spectacular transformation which has made them the second most in-form side in the competition only behind Carlton.

GWS has gone on a rampage, winning 11 of their last 13 matches to storm into premiership contention.

The Giants are riding an incredible wave of momentum and are fearless, as evidenced by the fact that they have won at 11 different venues this year – a VFL/AFL record. Most recently, they have beaten St Kilda in an elimination at the MCG in front of 70,000 fans, and were triumphant again in hostile territory against the Power in front of 45,000 fans at Adelaide Oval in a semi-final.

They are the quintessential road warriors, and have timed their tilt at the flag to perfection.

GWS has speed to burn, is super fit and does not stop running, as Port Adelaide found out last week when it was basically run off the park.

The Giants’ top-line players, such as Toby Greene, Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield and Sam Taylor, are all playing to their full potential, while the rejuvenated Jesse Hogan is in career-best form in attack.

Whitfield and Lachie Ash provide devastating dash off half-back, and are key instigators of the return of the ‘orange tsunami’ as wave after wave of line-breaking team passages of play, fuelled by exquisite ball use (particularly by hand), routinely cut open opposition teams on the rebound.

Kingsley’s team is also very physical, especially in the midfield, with big hard bodies, namely Tom Green and Callan Ward, doing plenty of work to ensure they have the upper hand in the clinches.

The pressure that GWS has been applying to its opponents in recent times, led largely by the likes of Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford, has also been crucial in getting it to this stage of the season.

The confidence that Kingsley has in his side is underscored by the fact that he has named an unchanged line-up, despite ruckman Kieren Briggs appearing to badly hurt his shoulder last week.

But the Giants are playing no mugs this week. They are taking on the minor premiers and flag favourites, who just so happen to welcome back arguably the best player in the competition in Nick Daicos from a knee injury.

The Magpies might have looked vulnerable in the second half of their qualifying final against Melbourne a fortnight ago, and might have even counted themselves lucky to win given the Demons’ well-documented inaccuracy in front of goal, but as all good teams do, they were victorious and earned themselves another week off.

By the time the ball bounces on Friday night, Collingwood would have had 15 days off compared to the Giants’ six.

But will that necessarily work to the Magpies’ advantage? Before the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016, the qualifying final winner had a dominant 28-4 record against the semi-final winner in preliminary finals under the current top-eight system. However, since 2016, that head-to-head record is deadlocked at 7-7.

The main reason why the Magpies are through to a second consecutive preliminary final is because of their backline. Despite conceding a staggering 32 more inside 50s to Melbourne, Collingwood’s defence, led by the likes of Jack Crisp, Jeremy Howe, Isaac Quaynor, Darcy Moore and Brayden Maynard, were absolutely sensational in their ability to limit the Demons to just seven goals.

GWS had better take note, because if it fails to lower its eyes and routinely bomb it long to its forward line, it will play right into Collingwood’s hands.

The big question in that part of the ground is who will line up on Greene? You’d think it would be a combination of Maynard and Quaynor, with Maynard perhaps doing the bulk.

Down the other end of the ground, Collingwood’s speedy small pressure forwards have the potential to provide plenty of headaches for the Giants’ brilliant backline. Bobby Hill is fresh from a critical three-goal effort against Melbourne, while the likes of Jordan De Goey, Jamie Elliott, Beau McCreery and sub Jack Ginnivan form a damaging unit.

As good as the Giants’ pressure and run from half-back has been recently, Collingwood at its best does both of those things better than any other team.

GWS on its day is capable of matching it with the Magpies, but on its home deck, expect Collingwood to avenge its 2019 disaster, even without the injured Taylor Adams (hamstring).

RONNY’S TIP: Collingwood by 17 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 18 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Collingwood by 11 points.

SECOND PRELMINARY FINAL
BRISBANE v CARLTON (Gabba, Saturday 5:15pm local time)
Whoever wins on Friday night will take on either Brisbane or Carlton in the 2023 AFL Grand Final.

Yes, that’s right … “or Carlton”.

To outshine what Greater Western Sydney has accomplished in the second half of the season, you must have achieved something quite extraordinary in your own right. And that’s exactly what the Blues have done.

Since slumping to 4-8-1 in Round 13, and still wallowing in the bottom four in Round 15, the Blues have gone on a belief-defying run which has seen them win 11 of their last 12 matches, including a streak of nine in a row.

They have taken all before them in the last three months, beating Melbourne twice, Collingwood and Port Adelaide.

Their golden stretch was capped off with their best win in a quarter of a century last week as they pipped the wayward Demons by two points in front of 96,000 people at the MCG in a semi-final for the ages.

But do they have at least another win left in them? That is the question. If they do make the grand final, they most certainly would have earned it, because they will have to conquer the toughest task in football – the Lions in Brisbane.

Chris Fagan’s men have been invincible at their Gabba fortress, winning all 12 games there this year by an average of six goals, and their most recent performance there was ruthless as they steamrolled the Power in the second half to register a crushing 48-point win in the second qualifying final.

Further aiding Brisbane’s cause is the fact that it has not left Queensland in five weeks, meaning it is extremely settled.

The only injury concern the Lions have copped is key defender Jack Payne (ankle) who has been ruled out and replaced by Darcy Gardiner who will be playing just his third game of the year, and his first since Round 13.

That change could certainly work in star Carlton forward Charlie Curnow’s favour because not only has he been restricted to just two goals in the first two finals, but his direct opponent on both occasions, Tom McCartin (Sydney) and Steven May (Melbourne), have been close to best on ground.

Harris Andrews will probably get the big job on Curnow, whose support network up forward will be bolstered by the returns of Harry McKay and Jack Martin. Ollie Hollands and Jordan Boyd have also been included in the Blues’ starting 22, while Brodie Kemp, Matt Owies, Matthew Kennedy and David Cuningham have all been omitted.

Blake Acres and Sam Docherty are both clearly hampered by shoulder injuries, but have both been named.

The likes of Acres, Sam Walsh, Tom De Koning and Jacob Weitering have been enormous in the finals series so far, and have been huge reasons behind the Blues’ stunning charge towards a preliminary final.

They, and numerous other role players, have stepped up while star players such as Curnow, McKay and Patrick Cripps have failed to have massive impacts.

But can they keep it going in such hostile territory? Carlton has only scored 74 and 73 so far this September, which will likely not cut it on a fast deck in perfect conditions in Brisbane.

The Lions have arguably the most potent forward line in the league with Joe Daniher, Charlie Cameron, Eric Hipwood, Cam Rayner, Lincoln McCarthy and Zac Bailey all capable of causing significant scoreboard damage.

Six of Brisbane’s nine biggest scores of the season have come up at the Gabba, all of which are tons, including its last outing there against Port Adelaide which yielded 19.9 (123).

The Lions have endured their fair share of finals heartache over the last four years, and have rightly been accused of choking on multiple occasions. But they look as though they have a steely resolve about them this year to ensure they finally make it to a grand final for the first time under Fagan.

And if Carlton’s stacked midfield can’t prevent the likes of Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko and Jarrod Berry from providing their lethal forward line with lots of supply, then it could be a long night for the Blues.

RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 29 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Brisbane by 26 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Brisbane by 33 points.

SEASON TOTALS
RONNY 142
ROCO 141
ROCKET 134