Port Adelaide’s Round 11 win over Richmond (left) and Geelong’s Round 6 defeat of Brisbane. Photos: GETTY IMAGES
FIRST PRELIMINARY FINAL
PORT ADELAIDE v RICHMOND (Adelaide Oval, Friday 7.20pm local time)
And then there were four.
It’s not always the case that the preliminary finals feature the four best teams from the home-and-away season, but this is definitely one of those occasions. In fact, it’s hard to remember a pair of grand final playoffs from the same season that are so evenly-matched.
The highly-anticipated action all kicks off in the City Of Churches as the minor premier Port Adelaide battles the reigning premier Richmond for a spot in the 2020 grand final.
The last, and only, time these two sides met in a final in 2014, Richmond captain Trent Cotchin infamously won the toss and kicked into the breeze, the Power proceeded to kick the first seven goals, and the 2014 first elimination final was over in 18 minutes.
Things have changed a lot since then, though, because the Tigers have been the best team in the AFL for the past four seasons, but the new-kids-on-the-block Power do not fear them, as evidenced by their last meeting in round 11 which Port Adelaide won by 21 points.
The Power kept Richmond scoreless in the final quarter on that occasion and they achieved their victory by breaking the Tigers down with ferocious tackling and non-stop pressure.
Not only did Richmond lose the inside-50 count by 31, which was its third-worst differential in any game since 2016, but it also got taught a lesson at the coal face as it lost the contested possession count by 43 – its second-worst result since 2014.
Port Adelaide will have to replicate that in-your-face brand of footy if it is any hope of putting Richmond off its game again.
However, the Tigers will be fielding a much stronger side to the one that took on the Power 10 weeks ago. This time Cotchin, Shane Edwards, Bachar Houli, Dion Prestia, Toby Nankervis, David Astbury and Jack Graham will all be in the line-up – that’s a lot of premiership experience.
And yes, the Power will add Connor Rozee, Brad Ebert, Todd Marshall, Steven Motlop and Ryan Burton to that round 11 side, but it would have to be said that the firepower Richmond has regained is superior.
Another huge concern for Port Adelaide is down back and how it is going to stop the rampaging Tom Lynch, who was just about best afield against St Kilda in last week’s semi-final.
The likes of Tom Jonas, Tom Clurey and Trent McKenzie have all struggled against the bigger-bodied forwards at various stages throughout the season, most notably Geelong’s Tom Hawkins.
If the Tigers provide similar supply to Lynch as they did last week, the contest could get away from Port Adelaide.
The Power, of course, have their own man mountain up forward in Charlie Dixon, but Richmond’s backline seems to be more dependable and solid.
Interestingly, Richmond coach Damien Hardwick has opted against bringing Mabior Chol back into the side and is backing ruckman Nankervis to do the job against the Power tandem of Scott Lycett and Peter Ladhams.
The noises coming out of the Port Adelaide camp suggest that it is probably not going to tag Dustin Martin at all this week, which is admirable and a big vote of confidence in the system it implements.
Martin did have one of his worst games of the year against the Power last time, but this is a whole different ball game. The dual Norm Smith medallist is one of the best finals players in the AFL, and with a dramatically strengthened squad around him, if he does get off the chain, Power coach Ken Hinkley might want to revisit that tactic.
With two of the best midfield groups in the competition going head-to-head, this promises to be a nailbiter. And while the Power have been the league pace-setters all year, Richmond still has a roar or two left in it before its current era comes to a close, so don’t be surprised if it reminds the footy world on Friday night as to why it’s been such a dominant force for so long and qualifies for its third grand final in four years.
RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 7 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 12 points.
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SECOND PRELIMINARY FINAL
BRISBANE v GEELONG (Gabba, Saturday 6.40pm local time)
What a ripping contest this promises to be as well.
The last time these two sides met in a final was way back in 2004 when the Lions were famously forced to host their ‘home’ preliminary final against the Cats at the MCG due to the AFL’s contractual obligations with the ground at the time.
Fast forward 16 years, and the Lions have finally got their payback with the 2020 finals series almost exclusively played in Queensland.
Brisbane not only faces Geelong at its home for a grand final berth, but it also has a once-in-a-lifetime – actually a once-in-124-year opportunity – to play in a premiership decider in Brisbane.
This writer dare suggests that the AFL is more than hoping for the Lions to be crowned premiers this year given what kind of generational impact that will have on the game up north. Suffice to say, the Lions have an enormous shot at creating history.
But first they must get past the Cats, who last week produced a finals beatdown of Collingwood that rivalled Richmond’s treatment of Greater Western Sydney in the 2019 grand final.
Geelong was ruthlessly clinical in disposing of the Magpies in their semi-final, and the driving force behind the domination was its champion Patrick Dangerfield.
The 2016 Brownlow medallist produced a finals masterclass which was spent predominantly up forward as he helped himself to four goals, 19 disposals (nine contested), six marks (two contested) and eight score involvements, while still finishing up in the top six on the ground for metres gained.
Not only is Dangerfield an unsettling force for opposition defences with his attack on the ball and the way he crashes packs, but by playing out of the goal square he also allows Tom Hawkins to roam more freely. Darcy Gardiner would seem to be the logical match-up for the eight-time All-Australian in attack.
Brisbane knows all too well how damaging Dangerfield can be in the midfield, too, given he was close to best on ground the last time these two sides met back in round six at the SCG.
Having already played in four preliminary finals, and lost them all, Dangerfield will be a man possessed as he chases his first grand final appearance at the age of 30. Meanwhile, his captain Joel Selwood will create history by becoming the first ever player to feature in 10 preliminary finals.
And the Lions’ home ground advantage at the Gabba might not be as strong as you’d normally expect.
Sure, they’ve won all 10 of their games there this year, but the Cats do not mind the venue at all, having won all four of their matches at the Gabba in 2020 by an average of 57 points. Granted, this weekend they’ll be confronted with a huge crowd that will almost exclusively be barracking for the home team.
Chris Fagan’s men proved a fortnight ago that they’re a different team to the one that got bundled out of the finals in straight sets 12 months ago. They did what only Collingwood has managed to do in the last four seasons – pressure and harass Richmond into submission in a final.
Crucially, Brisbane’s goalkicking issues went away in the most important game of the season, which was a massive mental hurdle to overcome.
The Lions’ star players in Charlie Cameron, Harris Andrews, Jarryd Lyons, Hugh McCluggage, Daniel Rich, Lachie Neale and Dayne Zorko rose to the occasion, taking on a team that had beaten their club in their previous 15 meetings, and passed with flying colours.
Geelong loves to control the ball and deny the opposition clear passage to its forward 50. However, Brisbane, which has won its last eight games, is a superior tackling team and with another week off under its belt and a full list from which to choose, if it brings that same intensity that it did against the Tigers, with a rabid home crowd willing it on yet again, the Cats’ keepings-off brand of footy will come under serious stress.
The Cats certainly have no shortage of motivation to win this game, having lost 12 of their last 17 finals, including all four preliminary finals since their 2011 flag, and also have the wood over the Lions, with 19 wins from their last 22 encounters.
But there appears to be a sense of destiny surrounding Brisbane this year, which equates to more finals heartache coming up for Geelong and a potentially sad ending to the great Gary Ablett’s illustrious career.
RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 11 points
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 10 points
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 106
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 112
