Jeremy Cameron of GWS shrugs off Collingwood pair Will Hoskin-Elliott and Jack Crisp in Round 18. Photo: AFL MEDIA

SECOND PRELIMINARY FINAL
RICHMOND v GEELONG (MCG, Friday 7.50pm local time)

The weekend widely regarded by footy purists as the best weekend of the year is upon us – the preliminary finals are here.

Two teams will take another huge step towards immortality while the other two will be left to rue their cruel fate of coming so close to a grand final yet being so far away.

And for the first time since 2011, both grand final qualifiers are being staged at the MCG. However, that’s a fact that probably doesn’t sit that well with the Cats, especially considering who they’re up against.

Yes, Geelong did smash the Tigers last time they met at this venue by 11 goals, but that was back in round 12, and Richmond was missing Jack Riewoldt, Kane Lambert, David Astbury, Toby Nankervis, Brandon Ellis, Jayden Short, Nathan Broad and Shai Bolton – all of whom have been named this week.

The Cats fought back well last week to beat West Coast and rid some lingering doubts over their comfort levels at the MCG, but beating Richmond at that ground is another thing altogether given the Tigers have won 32 of their last 35 games there.

Although, it must be noted that one of those three losses was one of the biggest upsets in recent finals history when Collingwood steamrolled them in last year’s preliminary final – a timely reminder that anything can happen in September.

But Geelong is a comfortable outsider in this one, and that’s largely because the Cats are going to find it very tough without the suspended Tom Hawkins and the injured Mitch Duncan (knee).

Hawkins had just regained form, too, bagging four goals after a month without a major, and the slack will now have to fall on youngster Esava Ratugolea, fresh from his breakout game, and a presumed combination of Harry Taylor, Patrick Dangerfield, Lachie Henderson and maybe even Mark Blicavs.

The Tigers remain unchanged, and why would they meddle with a side that handed the Lions just their second loss at the Gabba this year – and by a handsome eight-goal margin to boot?

Leading the way a fortnight ago was the sensational Dustin Martin, who banged home six goals in a virtuoso performance which saw him become the first Tiger to kick that many in a final since Kevin Bartlett(seven) and David Cloke (six) in the 1980 grand final.

Martin looks like a man possessed, desperate to atone for his quiet 2018 preliminary final (even though he was injured on that famous night).

The Cats learned from their hesitant approach in the qualifying final against Collingwood and took the game on against the Eagles last week, but they’re going to have to raise their game even more this week because in the home-and-away season they were ranked 12th for tackles on differentials while Richmond was No.1.

It’s been 24 years since these two sides have met so deep into a season. On that occasion it was the Cats who handed out a frightful 89-point finals footy lesson to the upstart Tigers. This time around, the margin won’t be quite so big, but Richmond is too strong across the park and should score a comfortable victory.

In doing so, the Tigers will make up for their heartache at the same stage last season and qualify for a second grand final in three years for the first time in 37 years.

As for the Cats, while making 10 preliminary finals in 16 years is an extraordinary effort, they will be left to rue a fourth straight failure from their last four appearances in the penultimate weekend.

RONNY’S TIP: Richmond by 33 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Richmond by 28 points.

FIRST PRELIMINARY FINAL
COLLINGWOOD v GWS (MCG, Saturday 4.35pm local time)

At about 10pm last Saturday, the Giants were looking like a genuine threat to Collingwood after handing Brisbane a three-point loss in an instant finals classic.

But that has all been turned on its head in the past 48 hours with Lachie Whitfield ruled out due to appendicitis and Toby Greene failing in his bid to appeal his one-week suspension for making unnecessary contact with Brisbane star Lachie Neale’s face in the semi-final at the Gabba.

It might seem like an excessive punishment, especially given Greene’s treatment of Marcus Bontempelli the previous week looked far worse yet only attracted a fine. And it’s led to no shortage of conspiracy theorists accusing the AFL of doing their best to orchestrate a dream match-up of arch rivals Richmond and Collingwood in the grand final.

But it’s in the books now, and GWS must shift its focus as quickly as possible to Saturday because, guess what? They’re still a chance to knock off the Pies due to the fact that they are still a very good team even without that star duo and even without Stephen Coniglio (knee), Brett Deledio (calf), Callan Ward (knee) and Jonathon Patton (knee).

Replacing Whitfield and Greene are former Magpie Lachie Keeffe and 19-year-old Bobby Hill, so it is a sizeable downgrade, but having said that, Collingwood heads into the clash minus Jordan De Goey (hamstring), Dayne Beams (shoulder/hip), Levi Greenwood (knee), Tom Langdon (knee), Mason Cox (eye) and Lynden Dunn (knee).

While the quality of outs still favours the Magpies, it’s not as if they’re not missing star power either.

The manner in which Collingwood ambushed Geelong a fortnight ago with its carefree, risk-taking style was brilliant, as the Pies booted seven of the first eight goals to open up a margin simply too big for the Cats to close.

But it’s fair to say the Magpies should bring their mouthguards this week, because they can expect the same ruthless aggression from the Giants which has served them so well in their outstanding victories over the Bulldogs and Lions so far this September.

And the last time these two sides met in round 18, the Giants executed an ambush of their own on the Magpies, booting eight of the first nine goals before going on to smash them by 47 points.

The Giants’ troika of key forwards Jeremy Cameron (six), Harry Himmelberg (four) and Jeremy Finlayson (three) ran riot that day, combining for 13 goals as they dined out on the Magpies’ undersized backline. Luckily for Collingwood, the in-form Darcy Moore will be playing this time around.

The Magpies had the second-best defence in the home-and-away season, while the Giants ranked 12th for inside-50 differentials. Ordinarily, you’d think those stats would favour Collingwood, but in round 18 the Magpies won the inside-50 battle by 14, yet lost the game by eight goals and had seven fewer scoring shots.

Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley believes that performance had more to do with his team’s mindset rather than anything tactical.

One obvious area where the Magpies can gain an advantage is in the ruck, with superstar Brodie Grundy up against Shane Mumford, who really struggled against Brisbane’s Stefan Martin last week and looks to be battling.

And there’s no doubt an MCG packed with 95,000 Collingwood supporters will be a big advantage for the Magpies, although GWS has already experienced something similar to that in 2017 against Richmond.

Only two teams in history have made the grand final from sixth place or lower and the Giants will have their work cut out to become the third. They’ve had to take the scenic route to this point while Collingwood has enjoyed another week off to rest.

GWS has won three of its last four against the Magpies, but this task seems just a bit beyond them and they will have to settle for a third preliminary final loss in four seasons, while Collingwood qualifies for back-to-back grand finals for the third time in 17 years.

RONNY’S TIP: Collingwood by 20 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 38 points.

RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 127
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 133