Adelaide players are jubilant after beating Collingwood in a classic encounter in Round 23. Photos: AFL MEDIA

FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL
ADELAIDE v COLLINGWOOD (Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:10pm)
Mercifully, a home-and-away season which ended up featuring more uninteresting games than one could poke a stick is finally over, and now footy fans get to enjoy the payoff of such a lopsided competition.

The gap between the top nine sides and the rest was enormous this year, and with so many fantastic teams featuring in the upper rungs of the ladder, it promises to ensure one of the most memorable finals series in league history.

And it all kicks off on Thursday night with a blockbuster qualifying final encounter between the Crows and Magpies.

There’s certainly no love lost between these top-four sides. Indeed, Adelaide is still reeling from the fallout of its fiery clash with Collingwood only a couple of games ago which led to superstar forward Izak Rankine copping a four-game suspension for using a homophobic slur. His only hope of featuring again this year is if the Crows lose against the Magpies and then make the grand final.

But before Adelaide looks too far ahead, it has more than enough on its place this week as it aims to dispense of Collingwood for the second time in three games and win through to a home preliminary final.

Crows coach Matthew Nicks deserves a lot of credit for taking his team from 15th to minor premiers, which is the biggest single-season promotion in VFL/AFL history, and making finals for the first time in his six-year reign at West Lakes.

The recent history between the Crows and Pies is quite remarkable. Their last six meetings have been decided by an average of just four points, with Collingwood holding a commanding 5-1 advantage during that period. In fact, the Magpies won 10 in a row against the Crows before Adelaide finally got one back in Round 23 in a three-point thriller at Adelaide Oval.

Collingwood has lost patience with underperforming key forward Dan McStay, dropping him in a harsh selection move reminiscent of John Noble’s axing on the eve of the 2023 finals series.

Mason Cox comes in for his first game since Round 18, and just his ninth match of the season. But he can help Darcy Cameron with ruck duties, and certainly has a history of stepping up in big matches, especially finals.

Wil Parker is Collingwood’s other inclusion, at the expense of injured Jeremy Howe (groin), while the Crows have brought back Max Michalanney and Luke Pedlar in place of dropped duo Billy Dowling and Sid Draper.

That last match between these two clubs was like a final. Collingwood made a blistering start, booting five goals in the first quarter as their quick ball movement and chaos footy up forward really troubled Adelaide’s backline. The Magpies were also prepared to lower their eyes more when entering their forward line.

But from there it became an arm wrestle, and the game slowed down, playing right into the hands of the Crows’ defence. Collingwood would only manage another three goals, despite finishing with 71 forward entries, as Adelaide overturned a 25-point deficit to win an epic.

However, Adelaide will be taking a huge risk if it attempts to play the same way and keep flooding back to absorb Collingwood’s inside 50s. If the Magpies get anywhere near that huge 71-37 advantage for inside 50s this time around, they’ll get the job done, even if the electric Bobby Hill remains absent.
ROCO’S TIP: Adelaide by 6 points.
RONNY’S TIP: Collingwood by 5 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Adelaide by 9 points.

SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL
GEELONG v BRISBANE (MCG, Friday 7:40pm)
And 24 hours later, the other qualifying final looms as another memorable encounter between two of the best sides in the league.

The Cats have won their last six games by an average of 58 points, while the Lions have won seven of their last nine, and that patch of form started all the way back in Round 15 when they went down to Kardinia Park and smashed Geelong on its home turf by 41 points.

These two sides are developing quite the finals rivalry as well. This will be the fourth time they meet in the finals in six years, with the Cats holding a 2-1 advantage in those matches which were all preliminary finals. The last two winners went on to claim the flag. Will that be the case again this year? It could very well be.

The Cats are the envy of every team’s medical department as they head into September with basically a non-existent injury list. And although the same can’t be said for the Lions, Lachie Neale (quad) and Jarrod Berry (shoulder) loom as two huge inclusions and Oscar McInerney could return too.

The last time these two sides met, Brisbane pulled off one of the performances of the season by any side. It’s no mean feat toppling the Cats down in Geelong, but to do it so comprehensively to the tune of 41 points is another thing altogether.

Brisbane played the Cats very intelligently, smashing them for uncontested marks (98-69) and resisting the temptation to bomb the ball long into their forward line into the waiting arms of Geelong interceptors such as Tom Stewart and Jack Henry.

Lions coach Chris Fagan had his side playing a very patient and measured style which saw them create countless disciplined forward entries, and that helped them pick the Cats apart clinically as they also cut off Geelong’s creative ball movement.

This writer has said it many times this year, but there is something about this Brisbane team that just relishes the big occasion and it almost always rises to the challenge.

The MCG is a home away from home for the Lions who have now won six of their last seven games at the venue, and they’ve also beaten Geelong in four of their last five meetings, including the past three.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 12 points.
RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 15 points
ROCKET’S TIP: Geelong by 5 points.

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FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL
GWS v HAWTHORN (Giants Stadium, Saturday 3:15pm)
The first of the cut-throat clashes takes place on Saturday afternoon, and what an absolute beauty it should be between another pair of in-form teams.

The Giants head into this match having won nine of their last 10 matches, and the Hawks eight of their past 11 and their losses were narrow affairs against fellow finallists Fremantle, Adelaide and Brisbane.

Both teams have plenty to weigh up at the selection table. Jesse Hogan (foot), Josh Kelly (calf), Brent Daniels, Stephen Coniglio (concussion), Jack Buckley (calf) and Jake Stringer (hamstring) are all pressing for returns for the Giants. So, will coach Adam Kingsley elect to bring all or some of them back this week?

Meanwhile, Josh Weddle (back) is a huge chance to return for his first game for the Hawks since Round 16 and Harry Morrison (quad) also looks like a good chance of being selected.

When the Hawks play their best footy, it’s when they get their transition game going, which, ironically, is quite similar to the Giants’ orange tsunami. And they’re able to do it thanks to their small forwards, such as Jack Ginnivan, Nick Watson and Dylan Moore playing a lot higher – almost up to the half-back flank in some instances.

So that means the likes of Lachie Whitfield and Lachie Ash from the Giants will have to remain vigilant and accountable while also being their damaging, creative selves.

But this game will be won in the middle of the ground, and the Giants’ will have just about the best on-baller on the field at their disposal in Finn Callaghan, with Tom Green a close second.

In order to curtail Callaghan’s influence, the Hawks might have to employ a strong, physical tag on him, most likely in the form of Conor Nash. As is always the case, in finals, your weaknesses get exposed, and the lack of Will Day in the midfield could really hurt the Hawks.

And inspirational GWS captain Toby Greene looks set to be the joker in the pack, with the freakish things he’s capable of doing worth their weight in gold in must-win finals.

Curiously, the Hawks have never won at this venue, losing all of their eight games there, including six against GWS.
ROCO’S TIP: GWS by 2 points.
RONNY’S TIP: GWS by 13 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: GWS by 11 points.

SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL
FREMANTLE v GOLD COAST (Optus Stadium, Saturday 5:35pm)
And last, but not least, history will be created on Saturday night when the Suns break through for their maiden final after 15 long years of waiting.

But it’s not going to be an easy task as they step into the cauldron of Optus Stadium with over 50,000 rabid Fremantle supporters awaiting them.

Like most top-eight sides, these two teams are in very good form as well. The Dockers have won 12 of their last 14 matches and the Suns seven of their last 10.

Both teams had to win their final games of the season to qualify for the finals, but Fremantle will certainly take more from its performance considering it had to travel to Marvel Stadium to down the Western Bulldogs on their home patch. All Gold Coast had to do was play a decimated Essendon outfit at Carrara.

Suns key forward Ben King kicked seven goals in that game, but this time around he is not going to be up against the undersized Jayden Laverde, he will have to contend with Fremantle’s three-pronged key defensive line-up of Alex Pearce, Luke Ryan and Brennan Cox.

And down the other end of the ground, Gold Coast’s Bodhi Uwland, Mac Andrew and Sam Collins will likely spend most of their time on Jye Amiss, Josh Treacy and Patrick Voss respectively.

However, the match could almost be won in the ruck where Fremantle duo Luke Jackson and Sean Darcy will tag team Gold Coast’s Jarrod Witts, and Jackson, in particular, has the ability to run the big Sun into the ground.

After the ball is thrown up and the ruck duel is decided, Jackson becomes almost like a midfielder who can float forward and sprint clear down field of his opponent on the counter to be a bonus attacking weapon.

The Dockers finish games stronger more often than not, and they’re going to be hard to beat at home.
ROCO’S TIP: Fremantle by 28 points.
RONNY’S TIP: Fremantle by 25 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Fremantle by 15 points.

SEASON TOTALS
ROCO 158
RONNY 151
ROCKET 146

*all times are local