Collingwood veteran Taylor Adams tackles Melbourne midfielder Jack Viney on King’s Birthday at the MCG in Round 13. Photo: AFL MEDIA

FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL
COLLINGWOOD v MELBOURNE (MCG, Thursday 7:20pm local time)
The home-and-away season has been completed, the top eight has been finalised, and the footy world is now in readiness for the biggest month of the year.

Yes, the finals are here, and after having to endure yet another ridiculous post-season bye weekend, fans have been rewarded for their patience by being treated to the most-anticipated match of the first week first up.

Scrap that, this is the most anticipated match of the season so far. The phrase “coin flip” was invented for games like this.

What a contest it promises to be – the minor premier Collingwood against 2021 premier Melbourne for a home preliminary final in a fortnight’s time.

For the vast majority of the year, the Magpies looked unstoppable as they won 16 of their first 18 games.

But their form slump late in the season has breathed new life into the premiership race. Craig McRae’s men managed only two wins from their final five games, including defeats to fellow top-five sides Brisbane and Carlton.

Conversely, Melbourne has timed its run brilliantly, winning seven of its last eight matches, taking the scalps of finalists Brisbane, St Kilda and Sydney along the way, to secure its third double chance in a row.

In fact, the Demons’ only loss in that stretch was by four points to Carlton with a controversial late score review infamously going against Christian Petracca.

The Magpies have welcomed back the big guns with captain Darcy Moore, Nathan Murphy and Beau McCreery all returning, although McRae has made a brutal call by axing John Noble after the rebounding defender played every game of the home-and-away season.

Jack Ginnivan has also been dropped, but he will be used as the starting sub after his best-on-ground performance against Essendon in the final round.

Meanwhile, if Brodie Grundy was in any doubt about his standing in the pecking order at Melbourne, he won’t be any more after Tom McDonald was preferred over him to replace Jake Melksham (knee) in the Demons’ forward line. McDonald has not played since Round 11, and has only managed 15 games in the past two seasons.

Michael Hibberd has also been selected to stiffen up Melbourne’s backline with some much-needed experience.

Crucially, Collingwood is still without former Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos who continues to recover from a fractured knee.

The Demons will head into this contest full of confidence as one of the few teams to defeat Collingwood this year. Making their victory even more impressive was that it occurred on King’s Birthday when the Magpies were in top form.

The four-point margin that day wasn’t reflective of Melbourne’s dominance, and its 8.18 scoreline spared Collingwood a heftier defeat.

The Demons’ pressure that day was tremendous and if they can replicate the manner in which they closed down space on the Magpies, and cut off avenues for them to hit targets, it will go a long way to deciding this contest.

Jack Viney was best on ground that day, and looks set to have another big say on proceedings, while Bayley Fritsch was also influential with 3.3, and he looks to have overcome a foot issue with a match-winning performance against Sydney in Round 24 in his first game back from a separate foot injury.

The Magpies are the best back-half team in the competition, but to take their game to the next level, they will have to get their front-half game going again, which is why Ginnivan will be used as the sub in conjunction with the likes of Bobby Hill, McCreery and Jamie Elliott to ramp up the pressure in attack.

But having the most dominant ruckman in the league in Max Gawn up against Collingwood’s iffy combination of Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox could be enough to tip the match in Melbourne’s favour.

RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 5 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 2 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Melbourne by 7 points.

FIRST ELIMINATIONAL FINAL
CARLTON v SYDNEY (MCG, Friday 7:50pm local time)
After 10 long years, the Blues are finally back on the finals stage thanks to their spectacular transformation in the second half of the season.

Carlton was languishing in the bottom four as late as Round 15, but it won nine games in a row for the first time in 23 years to catapult itself into fifth spot on the ladder.

The Swans might be the eighth-ranked team, and playing in front of a largely pro-Carlton crowd that is expected to top the 90,000 mark, but they too head into September in sparkling form.

John Longmire’s men were in the bottom four even later than the Blues in Round 17, but six consecutive wins saw them grab a finals berth as well.

And they’re not a team to be underestimated because they boast considerable finals experience, having made it to a grand final last year, and they actually finished this home-and-away season (6-1) in very similar fashion to 2022 (7-0).

The good news for Carlton is that it will regain captain Patrick Cripps, who will play his first final after 180 games, as well as former skipper Sam Docherty, while goalsneak Jesse Motlop is available as well.

But the big query is on star wingman Blake Acres who injured his collarbone in the final round against GWS and will have to pass a fitness test on Thursday in order to be considered. Jack Silvagni (knee) will not play.

For the Swans, all eyes are on superstar forward Tom Papley who injured his hamstring against Adelaide in Round 23, but 20 days would have passed since then by the time the first bounce takes place on Friday, so he is expected to line up.

Justin McInerney (calf) is the other Swan who will have a sharp focus applied to him on the training track this week as he attempts to prove his fitness, having not played since Round 20.

This match promises to be an absolute ripper. Carlton had a down final fortnight of the season proper, but proved its September bona fides in taking down Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Melbourne during its hot streak.

The Blues midfield is stacked as well, led by Cripps, but it will certainly have its hands full against the likes of Luke Parker, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden.

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One area where Sydney looks vulnerable is up forward, and its reliance on key targets Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald and Hayden McLean. The trio has shown great signs at different stages, but cannot be considered a reliable proposition just yet, especially in the heat of a final. It’s for that reason that Isaac Heeney will really need to step up and play a blinder.

Down the other end of the field, the Blues have no such issues with the back-to-back Coleman Medalist Charlie Curnow leading a potent ensemble. Although, they would like to get more out of Harry McKay whose indifferent form has continued since returning from injury in Round 23.

The other question facing Carlton coach Michael Voss is will he play all three ruck options in Sam De Koning, Marc Pittonet and McKay?

Either way, expect the Blues to rebound from their late-season mini slump, put on a show for their adoring fans and play the loser of Collingwood and Melbourne in a semi-final.

RONNY’S TIP: Carlton by 19 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Carlton by 22 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Carlton by 15 points.

SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL
ST KILDA v GWS (MCG, Saturday 3:20pm local time)
This match promises to be a tense arm wrestle between two of the season’s biggest surprise packets.

Not many pundits would’ve had the Saints and Giants playing finals football this year, but here they are, playing against each other in a cut-throat elimination final under new coaches (new-ish, in Ross Lyon’s case at St Kilda).

The Saints were looking vulnerable after Round 18 when they lost to Gold Coast to be 9-8. However, they rallied admirably, winning four of their last six games, to ensure they spent the entire season inside the top eight.

Meanwhile, the Giants are the third team featuring in the finals to have spent time in the bottom four in the second half of the season.

GWS slipped down there in Round 12, yet turned things around dramatically with a spectacular club-record seven-game winning streak, before finishing strongly with comprehensive wins over Essendon and Carlton.

In fact, this game came perilously lose to being staged in Sydney, but a couple of late goals from the Blues in the final round sent the Giants back down to seventh from sixth.

The Saints are spoiled for options at the selection table with Dougal Howard (wrist), Josh Battle (concussion) and Anthony Caminiti (concussion) all available, while Seb Ross (hamstring) and Zak Jones (knee) set to undergo fitness tests. Sadly for Jack Hayes, his involvement this season has been shortlived after he injured his calf in his comeback game from an ACL in the final round.

The Giants, meanwhile, will be sweating on the availability of superstar defender Sam Taylor (hamstring), who will surely get the big job on Max King if given the all clear. Finn Callaghan (Achilles) will also be pressing for selection.

Of huge importance for GWS will be the outcome of vastly-improved small forward Toby Bedford’s appeal on Thursday night. At the time of publication, the former Demon has been rubbed out for a week and is unavailable.

The Giants have found scoring very easy in recent times, averaging 103 points in their last six games. But they take on the Saints who have the No.1 defence in the competition, led by All-Australian stars Jack Sinclair and Callum Wilkie.

The Giants’ hopes rest largely on the shoulders of inspirational captain Toby Greene, who is capable of turning a game on its head. Jimmy Webster will probably get the big job on him, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Wilkie get a run on Greene at times as well.

GWS have a superior midfield unit, but if the red-hot Rowan Marshall can get the better of the impressive Kieren Briggs in the ruck battle, the Saints are halfway there.

RONNY’S TIP: St Kilda by 11 points.
ROCO’S TIP: St Kilda by 16 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: St Kilda by 5 points.

SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL
BRISBANE v PORT ADELAIDE (Gabba, Saturday 7:25pm local time)
Bringing us home this weekend is a blockbuster match-up between the Lions and Power who reignite their finals rivalry from the early part of the millennium.

The winner will earn a home preliminary final in two weeks’ time.

Unfortunately for Port Adelaide, it could not have picked a worse ground to kick off its 2023 finals campaign at.

The Lions boast the most formidable home record in the AFL, having won all 11 of their games at the Gabba this year. In fact, they have lost just two games there in the past two seasons.

Brisbane also heads into September perfectly primed, having not only won its last four games, but having not left Queensland since beating the Magpies at Marvel Stadium on August 18.

The same can’t be said for the Power who at one stage looked unstoppable when they strung together 13 wins in a row – a club record since joining the AFL.

Although after losing four on the trot, they did manage to right the ship to finish the season with three consecutive victories.

The Lions look set to welcome back Lincoln McCarthy from a calf injury, while Port Adelaide could be set to regain Todd Marshall (hip), Trent McKenzie (knee) and Scott Lycett (knee), while forgotten forward Orazio Fantasia is displaying strong form at SANFL level.

However, Ken Hinkley’s side will have to make do without power forward Charlie Dixon (foot) for at least another week.

The biggest concern for Port Adelaide is down the other end of the ground where its vulnerable backline will be tasked with stopping arguably the most potent forward line in the league.

Brisbane have attacking threats everywhere with Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Charlie Cameron, McCarthy, Cam Rayner and Zac Bailey all capable of wreaking havoc.

And if the Lions’ star-studded on-ball division is able to provide enough supply, which it is more than capable of doing, then Aliir Aliir and co. are going to have their cut out.

They say you have to experience finals heartache to win a flag. Well, the Lions have had more than their fair share with just three wins from nine finals in the last four years. They looked as primed as they ever have under Chris Fagan to mount an assault on a premiership, and the Power could find that out the hard way.

RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 32 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Brisbane by 10 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Brisbane by 13 points.

SEASON TOTALS
RONNY 140
ROCO 138
ROCKET 130