Collingwood star Nick Daicos and Brisbane’s dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale are huge keys to the result.

COLLINGWOOD v BRISBANE (MCG, Saturday 2:30pm local time)
After six months and 215 matches, we have finally arrived at the climax of the 2023 premiership season.

And what an absolute beauty it promises to be, as the two best teams from the home-and-away season do battle to decide who are the champions of the AFL.

For the first time in nine years, first and second on the ladder will face each other for the flag, and there’s plenty of history at stake.

Collingwood, playing in its 45th VFL/AFL grand final (16 more than any other team), will be looking to win a 16th premiership and join arch rivals Essendon and Carlton as joint-holders of the all-time record.

The Magpies haven’t held the record since 1981, and it’s been 120 years since it was shared by three teams when Essendon, Collingwood and Fitzroy all had two each at the end of the 1903 season.

As the aforementioned stat suggests, Collingwood has had a very hard time of it historically at this time of year, winning only 15 flags from 44 grand finals. Indeed, to be triumphant this week, the Magpies will also have to overcome the dreaded ‘Colliwobbles’ which have seen them win just two of their last 16 premiership deciders.

Collingwood returns to the big dance after a five-year absence, but for Brisbane, it’s been almost two decades since it last made it to this stage of the season.

Not since the legendary three-peat Lions from the early part of this millennium tried to capture a fourth premiership in a row in 2004 has Brisbane graced the biggest of stages.

And there’ll be a familiar look about it for them this time around considering two of their three flags from that period were won against the Magpies.

The Lions will also be enthused by the fact that they head into this match in better form than Collingwood.

Chris Fagan’s men have won their last six matches, and by the time Saturday rolls around, they wouldn’t have played a game outside of Queensland for 43 days. They’re as settled and primed for a premiership as they’ve ever been under Fagan.

They’ve also won their last six games against Collingwood by an average of 26 points, including both meetings this year. However, it must be said, the two sides haven’t met at the MCG since 2017, and the Lions’ record at the ground has been an atrocious 1-14 in the past nine seasons.

But Brisbane did come awfully close to beating Melbourne there in Round 18, before losing by a point, and the Lions toppled the Demons in last year’s semi-final at the MCG. So perhaps their ‘hoodoo’ at the ground isn’t as pronounced as it seems.

Meanwhile, Collingwood appears to be just doing enough recently. Granted, it knew it was going to be finishing in the top two a long way out, but the fact the Magpies have won only four of their last seven matches adds extra intrigue to this contest.

Collingwood’s most convincing performance in that period was against a cooked Essendon side in the final round, which says a bit.

Craig McRae’s men have only managed scores of 9.6 (60) and 8.10 (58) in their first two finals, and while the good news is of course that they won both games against Melbourne and GWS respectively, the worry for them is that they have been struggling to kick a sizeable score.

To that end, a lot of credit has to go to Collingwood’s defence. They have been magnificent all year, but especially in the finals, most notably restricting Melbourne to a losing score despite conceding 32 more inside 50s to the Demons.

Isaac Quaynor played one of the games of his career last week against the Giants, while the likes of captain Darcy Moore, Jack Crisp, Brayden Maynard, Jeremy Howe, Nathan Murphy and even Oleg Markov have formed an incredibly strong nucleus down back for the Pies.

Collingwood took a combined total of 41 intercept marks against GWS and Melbourne, which screams loud and clear to Brisbane that it simply cannot afford to bang it in haphazardly to its forward line.

And what a forward line it is. The Lions undoubtedly have the best forward line in the competition, and having it pitted against one of the AFL’s best backlines is a mouthwatering prospect.

Brisbane has so many dangerous avenues to goal and its multi-pronged attack on Saturday will feature no fewer than six players to have kicked over 20 goals this year – Joe Daniher (58), Charlie Cameron (56), Eric Hipwood (41), Zac Bailey (27), Lincoln McCarthy (26) and Cam Rayner (23).

Compare that to Collingwood, which will only have three such players – Brody Mihocek (46), Jamie Elliott (39) and Bobby Hill (29). It would’ve had four, but Dan McStay cruelly injured his knee last week and will miss out on the chance to line up against his old side in a grand final in his first year with Collingwood.

McStay is by no means a superstar, but last week he was doing a fantastic job on one of the best defenders in the competition in Sam Taylor before getting hurt. His absence, along with star midfielder Taylor Adams’, could be crucial.

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The less heralded Billy Frampton will come in for McStay, and will certainly have his hands full trying to fill the void. He may very well be tasked with quelling brilliant Brisbane defender Harris Andrews, who was absolutely sensational last week, and the main reason the Lions were still in the game at quarter-time against the Blues.

In the Lions’ attacking zone, Moore will probably have the huge job on Daniher, while either Maynard or Quaynor will line up on Charlie Cameron.

Cameron’s recent record against the Magpies has been fantastic, averaging 11 touches and four goals in his last five meetings with them, but he has been pretty quiet so far this September, with just three goals combined against Port Adelaide and Carlton, so he will need to produce a big performance to enhance Brisbane’s chances of victory.

And down the other end of the ground, the same can be said about Jamie Elliott. Normally such a reliable clutch shot for goal, the star Magpie’s radar has deserted him at the worst possible time, with only 1.4 to his name across both finals so far.

However, Elliott is just one member of Collingwood’s fleet of pressure small forwards, and he, along with the likes of Bobby Hill, Beau McCreery and Jack Ginnivan, will certainly attempt to make life difficult for Brisbane’s rebounding defenders such as Conor McKenna, Darcy Wilmot and Keidean Coleman, who was best on ground against Carlton last week.

Brisbane defender Jack Payne (ankle) is the other hard-luck story of the week, and after sitting out the preliminary final, he misses out again. But the Lions have got more than a competent replacement in Darcy Gardiner, who last week returned for just his third game of the year, and first in four months, and played a blinder on Coleman Medalist Charlie Curnow. He will likely get the job on Mihocek, with Andrews helping out.

The Magpies present a unique challenge, though, as the best back-half team in the competition, with the bulk of their scoring launched from that part of the ground.

Saturday’s grand final will also see two of the AFL’s mega stars up against each other – Brisbane’s Lachie Neale, fresh from winning his second Brownlow, and Collingwood’s Nick Daicos, who probably would’ve won the Brownlow had he not been injured and missed the final three games.

The pair likely won’t line up against each other too often, but having them both on the same paddock in the biggest game of the year is a tantalising prospect.

After a slow start last week in his first game back in six weeks, Daicos rediscovered his very best form and was one of the main drivers, along with Jordan De Goey and Quaynor, behind Collingwood’s thrilling win.

Daicos is a jack-of-all-trades and can be played with great effect across half-back, in the middle or up forward, giving McRae plenty of flexibility.

Meanwhile, Neale is the crowning jewel in the Lions’ stacked midfield unit. A natural ball winner with exquisite skills, his ability to stamp his authority on a contest is shared by only a select few.

De Goey heads into this game having produced the match of his career last week, so it would come as no surprise if Josh Dunkley went to him after doing a very good job on Carlton captain Patrick Cripps last week.

The Lions look like they have a steely resolve about them this year after experiencing so much September heartache in recent seasons, and their maturity was evident last week when they were staring down the barrel of a five-goal deficit against Carlton before calmly and methodically fighting their way to victory.

However, Brisbane cannot afford to start the grand final the way it did the preliminary final, because Collingwood will almost certainly not allow them the chance to regain a foothold in the contest like Carlton did.

If the Lions can make sure they start well and absorb the inevitable early onslaught from Collingwood, they will be halfway there, because the Magpies have only managed a combined 11 goals after quarter-time this finals series.

That is a big “if”, though. After all, under McRae, the Magpies have become the close-finish kings. In the 50 games he has coached them, they have been involved in 22 games decided by 11 points or less, for a remarkable 18-4 record.

If things get tight towards the end, as this writer predicts they well, no team in the AFL manages those situations better than the Magpies, as they showed last week at the death against GWS in their ability to force repeat stoppages and turn the match into a rugby maul.

RONNY’S TIP: Collingwood by 2 points.
Norm Smith Medal: Nick Daicos (Coll).

ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 2 points.
Norm Smith Medal: Darcy Moore (Coll).

ROCKET’S TIP: Collingwood by 15 points.
Norm Smith Medal: Jordan De Goey (Coll).

FINAL SEASON TOTALS
RONNY 145
ROCO 144
ROCKET 137

*updated after the grand final