The Swans trudge off the Gabba after the Brisbane loss, their sixth from seven games this season. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
It was T.S. Eliot who famously wrote: “This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper.” And while AFL football isn’t generally the first thing which comes to mind when considering poetry, for the Sydney Swans right now, it seems very apt.
“Whimper” is all relative, of course. And the Swans’ 22-point loss to Brisbane at the Gabba on Saturday night was far from their worst performance so far this season.
The whimper in this case isn’t so much Sydney’s miserable win-loss tally of 1-6 and bottom spot on the ladder, below even the hapless Carlton. It’s in the reactions, or rather lack of them, that situation has spawned.
When the Swans slumped to 0-6 and last spot just two seasons ago, the shock was palpable, the team and coach John Longmire the subject of much media scrutiny.
The massive wake-up call sparked an amazing revival, which saw Sydney become the first team to reach finals after such a perilous start, winning 14 of their last 16 games to get there. This time around, there’s barely a fraction of the same scrutiny. And you’d get astronomical odds on a repeat of that recovery.
Perhaps the appropriate analogy is “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”. For so long now, Sydney has been ritually dismissed as a contender, and almost annually thumbed its nose at the prophecies of doom. Now, it’s actually happened, but no longer is the football world paying attention.
That’s almost a compliment of sorts, testimony to a team which became a fixture in September, finalists 14 of the past 15 years. But this time, the era really is over. And on Saturday night at the Gabba, the tell-tale signs were everywhere.
There was defeat itself against Brisbane, a team against which the Swans had racked up 11 successive victories and not been defeated by since 2009. But the manner of defeat was also instructive.
After trailing by 28 points at quarter-time, Sydney summoned all its reserves for a massive second-quarter effort. It slammed on six goals to two to go into half-time just two points down. If ever there was a line-in-the-sand moment, that was it.
But Brisbane this time didn’t play its role. It was the Lions who reasserted their control once more, winning both the third and final quarters, in the end only inaccuracy preventing a bigger final margin. The Swans had given as much as they could. And still came up short.
The key statistics told a very ominous tale. Brisbane had a whopping 42 more contested possessions. The Lions won the clearance count by 11, the tackle count and finished with 37 more inside 50 entries, almost double Sydney’s tally.
Little has come to symbolise Sydney more for such a long time than its toughness and discipline in the contest.
In John Longmire’s eight completed seasons as coach, the Swans have never finished lower than 10th in the differential rankings for contested ball. Yet even before that smacking on the contested front at the Gabba, Sydney in 2019 was ranked a dismal 17th.
Last year, Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and George Hewett all ranked in the AFL’s top 28 contested ball winners. Kennedy is the only Sydney representative in the current top 30.
Defence has been another Sydney trademark, its back six regularly soaking up pressure and forward entries but both denying scores and generating plenty of rebound.
Under Longmire, the Swans have been the No.1 ranked team for fewest points conceded four times, last year slipping to seventh, their lowest mark under his coaching. But even that looks very good compared to their current standing of 16th, Sydney conceding an average three goals more per game than in 2018.
There were already big question marks over the Swans’ outside game and speed. But their inside work and defensive steel has usually at least kept them in the hunt. With those bulwarks finally broken, what’s left? Not much.
Up forward, the focus on Lance Franklin has only intensified, Sam Reid’s injuries and inconsistency never allowing him to become the key forward support “Buddy” has so desperately needed. Ruckman Callum Sinclair can’t be in two places at once. There simply isn’t enough firepower.
Sydney had a bad run of injuries to key players two years ago when it had that terrible 0-6 start. The Swans have their share now, too, Franklin, Jarrad McVeigh, Nick Smith, Kieren Jack, Will Hayward and Heath Grundy have all been absent at various stages this season. But the impact of the missing is greater now than it was even in 2017.
What the Swans have been able to do consistently for a long period is push through young talent, regenerating whilst remaining at least competitive. But have enough of those newer faces continued to develop as they had hoped?
Isaac Heeney is certainly a Swans star, Jake Lloyd a very reliable performer, and George Hewett and Harry Cunningham consistent enough. Would anyone, though, describe any of that quartet other than Heeney as potential match-winners?
Tom Papley might fit that bill. While there’s still time for Will Hayward, Oliver Florent and Aliir Aliir. But it’s the oldest Swans still basically setting the tone. And increasingly feeling the pinch.
McVeigh is 34, Franklin and Grundy 32, Jack 31 and Smith and Kennedy 30. Kennedy, particularly, now a co-captain alongside Luke Parker and Dane Rampe, is visibly doing it tougher these days without enough support.
None of this seems any great surprise anymore, which perhaps accounts for the lack of fanfare attached to Sydney’s miserable start to 2019.
The Swans have been the only club for close to two decades to have avoided the ritual ups and downs inevitable in a competition more even and tighter than ever. Sydney for so long has been magnificent in defying those obstacles.
But it’s all finally caught up with them. In 2019, there won’t be any Lazarus-like recovery or yet another finals appearance. The game is up. And sadly it appears, given the seeming lack of interest, the Swans will be going quietly.
*This article first appeared at SPORTING NEWS.
