Denver is one of the favourites for the title this year, and the main reason for that is their Serbian superstar Nikola Jokic. Photo: Getty Images.
We’re into the home stretch of the NBA regular season and in a season where so much has changed though the course of the campaign, it seems prudent to gauge where each and every team stands in the race for the championship.
Every NBA team has somewhere between 20 and 25 games left to complete on its schedule at the time of writing and usually by this stage of a season we’ve seen a select group of clubs separate themselves from the bunch … at both ends of the standings.
Whilst that is the case at the bottom of the table as teams form a disorderly queue for giant French prodigy Victor Wembanyama, the top contains a glut of teams. A few of those will quite rightly consider themselves genuine title chances, whilst some may think they’re amongst the favourites but perhaps sit just outside that elite circle. Others – not going to name the Sacramento Kings, here – are just happy to be in the conversation.
Rather than ranking teams 1-30, I’ve decided to place teams into tiers (teams within each tier are listed alphabetically) starting with the race to the bottom.
Not who you want to see in round one
Atlanta Hawks
The talent is there.
The Hawks are young, deep and, on their night, exceptional.
It’s just too bad that they genuinely seem to hate playing with each other.
The Hawks have made changes off the court, with Landry Fields superseding Travis Schlenk as the front office lead decision maker.
His biggest decision thus far has been to replace the hopelessly out-of-place Nate McMillan with the highly-rated Quin Snyder on the sidelines.
On the assumption that ownership has bought into those changes, we can presume that they, the front office and the coach are all on the same page.
All of that counts for nothing, though, if the playing group is fractured.
The Hawks need to sort things out. Quickly.
Golden State Warriors
Practically every stat – advanced or otherwise – suggest that the Warriors, owners of a 31-30 record, are bang average.
Yet the prevailing thought around much of the league is that the reigning champs will be able to turn in on when it matters.
To that end, this season may prove to be the ultimate study on the concept of ‘flipping the switch’.
Miami Heat
The Heat are the model team for this tier.
They’re frankly anaemic on offence, unable to stretch the floor consistently or score at the rim.
Yet they find a way to get buckets in big moments. Aligned with their always fearsome defence, that clutch ability makes the Heat the quintessential playoff nightmare for a higher seed.
Remember, just last season the Heat were massive underdogs in the conference finals against Boston, yet were only a missed Jimmy Butler jump shot away from making it to the big dance.
New Orleans Pelicans
If the Pelicans are healthy (read: If Zion Williamson is healthy) then they move up into the next tier, possibly even the one above that.
As currently constituted, their available top-end talent just isn’t good enough and their vaunted young depth remains too green.
Toronto Raptors
Was it just a year ago that the greater NBA world (yes, me included) was shouting from any available soapbox that the Raptors were a championship dark horse?
The Raptors have a raft of issues to solve on the court from a fit perspective and a tactical approach (I covered them on The Point in January), but the more you watch them, they simply don’t seem to enjoy playing basketball right now.
That might stem from issues with coach Nick Nurse’s schemes, it could be the famously bombastic coach wearing on them or it could be that the players are simply not united.
Whichever way you cut it, Toronto is playing to less than the sum of its parts. Should they find a way to coalesce, however, the Raptors will prove the toughest of outs for any opponent.
Solid playoff teams
Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic is no longer responsible for everything that the Mavericks achieve on the offensive end because Kyrie Irving’s addition gives them one of the very best one-two punches in the NBA.
That said, there are still so many questions here. Certainly enough to prevent the Mavs from sitting in a higher tier.
Jason Kidd is clearly a better coach than he was in Milwaukee, but do you trust him when the stakes are at their highest?
Do you trust Kyrie not to napalm everything within view for three consecutive months?
Is Josh Green (seven minutes per game in last season’s playoffs) ready for prime time?
Can Maxi Kleber, once he returns from injury, bolster Dallas’ 24th-ranked defence?
New York Knicks
In a sure sign that we’re living in the Matrix, the Knicks, led by Thom Thibodeau, are a solid team based on … their offence?
Led by Jalen Brunson and the resurgent Julius Randle, New York are already quite good.
If RJ Barrett can rediscover his groove then the Knicks could really create havoc on offence.
Can Mitchell Robinson and Quentin Grimes do enough to keep them afloat at the other end of the floor?
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Sacramento Kings
Mike Brown was supposed to fortify the Kings’ defence to the point where it would no longer be embarrassing, whilst the Domantas Sabonis/De’Aaron Fox-led offence scored just enough points to keep the Kings in the contest.
Instead, the defence hasn’t really improved by any great measure and their entertaining offence comes in just a hair behind Denver’s as the league’s second-best attack.
The Kings’ infamous 16-season playoff drought is surely over and their building is going to be all caps LOUD come playoff time.
That said, it’s unlikely that they find a way into the second round.
At this stage, that’s perfectly fine. The Kings are genuinely happy to be playing playoff hoops.
A puncher’s chance
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs possess perhaps the best young core in the entire NBA.
They have a pair of offensive beacons, two defensive powerhouses (or at least Evan Mobley will be in the near future) and … not all that much else.
Despite their startling lack of depth, the Cavs are still ranked second in the NBA in net rating.
Even though this feels like something of a free hit season for the Cavs as they start to discover themselves, it’s that net rating that leads me to believe that a few lucky breaks could see them make the conference finals.
There are massive mountains to climb at the top of the East but don’t be surprised if Cleveland ruffles some feathers.
Philadelphia 76ers
Top-10 offence, top-10 defence, top-five net rating, a 19-7 record in 2023, an MVP candidate, a wonderful second banana, an ascendant third key piece, outstanding role players littered across the roster and a collective chip on their shoulder.
Why are we not taking the Sixers more seriously? Scar tissue. That’s why.
The Sixers’ recent history of playoff failure, aligned with James Harden’s notorious flameouts whilst in Houston, have left a bitter taste in the mouths of many.
Until the Sixers show us otherwise, they can’t be considered an elite team come playoff time.
Contenders
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers’ place in this tier is almost entirely dependent on the availability of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
Leonard is looking back to his best on offence and is still able to snatch your soul on defence from time to time.
The Clippers are 23-11 with Kawhi on the floor and it’s his ability to stay on the floor that will dictate how far this version of the Clippers – perhaps the best in the Steve Ballmer era – will go.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizz have fallen away a touch without hulking Kiwi Steven Adams controlling the glass.
The easy buckets that his league-leading 5.1 offensive boards per game generate are a large reason why Memphis’ half-court offence functions at a reasonable level – they’re 26th in the league in the month that he’s been missing.
Memphis already sports perhaps the best open-floor attack in the league and a solid defence.
If they can find some efficiency in the halfcourt they should be able to push the very best teams all the way.
Oh, they’re still fine in the west, apparently.
Phoenix Suns
The wildcard.
Without having seen how the Suns look with Kevin Durant on the floor, it’s impossible to provide a true assessment of this team. On paper, though? Wow!
Durant is the closest thing the league has seen to an offensive cheat code since Wilt Chamberlain. Devin Booker is now a second option! That’s ludicrous.
Of course, their depth has been pillaged and all three of Durant, Booker and Chris Paul have missed significant chunks of time so far this season. Deandre Ayton may or may not give a f–k.
If everything falls into place, the Suns are ranked too low, here. That said, let’s see literally a single game with their big three on the floor before we come to any conclusions.
Cream of the crop
Boston Celtics
After an off-season that could have detonated a lesser team, Boston has been arguably the league’s best team so far this season.
The Celtics bona fides are obvious: they’re first in the NBA in net rating; third in offense; and fourth in defence.
This team is, by any measure, elite.
New head coach Joe Mazzulla has the Celtics living and dying by the three which could create an interesting dichotomy should they face the Bucks or Cavaliers in the playoffs (it seems unlikely they would be able to avoid both).
Milwaukee and Cleveland – the league’s two best defences – are both experts at taking away the three ball.
Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic is making a mockery of the concept of voter fatigue.
The two-time reigning MVP is having undoubtedly his best season, leading the Nuggets to a clear top seeding in the conference and perhaps top seeding overall.
Denver has the NBA’s top offence (even their much maligned defence is up to 13th), they have arguably the league’s best home court advantage, Jamal Murray looks back to his best and the supporting cast is perfectly suited to their stars.
Oh, they also have the Joker in the pack.
Milwaukee Bucks
A 14-game winning streak (at the time of writing) has Milwaukee sitting pretty atop the NBA standings.
Khris Middleton still looks short of a gallop as he continues his long recovery from injuries to seemingly every part of his body.
Still, the Bucks are yet to drop a game in which Middleton has appeared in 2023.
That owes much to Giannis Antetokounmpo quietly having a season that is at least the equal of his MVP seasons.
And that is the concern for Milwaukee – the load Giannis is carrying.
He’s taken down the Suns in the playoffs and he’s out-duelled Kevin Durant.
To beat them both at the same time, let alone the other contenders on both sides of the conference divide, the Bucks megastar will need something left in the tank.
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