Might Toronto consider trading out defensive beast OG Anunoby (pictured) in a bid to lure an established star up north? Photo: USA Today.
For a franchise that is as consistently excellent as the Toronto Raptors are, a first-round exit could be seen as a disappointment.
Since their 2019 championship run, though, the Raptors have seen Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Norman Powell and Danny Green exit.
They’ve also spent a year displaced in Tampa Bay, where it appears that precisely zero people care about basketball.
For the team to rebound as well as it has is a credit to Masai Ujiri’s warlock-like ability to unearth gems at every turn and Nick Nurse’s ability to cut and polish them.
The Raptors are a team that is perhaps just a move away from returning to genuine contention. Let’s take a look at where they might make improvements this off-season.
The roster
Just quietly, this team is really quite talented.
Fred VanVleet deservedly made his first All-Star game this season, giving the Raps 20.7 points, 6.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals – all career highs – whilst continuing in his role as Toronto’s emotional leader.
VanVleet’s determination (he was famously undrafted back in 2012) permeates through to the rest of the team.
Pascal Siakam, who returned from a pre-season injury to earn his second All-NBA nod, is playing career-best basketball.
He averaged 22.8 points, 8.5 boards and 5.3 assists and his 40-point masterpiece (amazingly in this era of NBA basketball, compiled without a three-pointer) against eventual NBA finalist Boston was a sight to behold.
His footwork and mastery of the mid-post reminded this writer of prime Bernard King, even for just the one game.
Both Siakam and VanVleet provide stellar defence, setting the tone for Toronto’s suffocating resistance.
OG Anunoby and NBA Rookie Of The Year Scottie Barnes are devastating defenders, able to shut you down on ball and wreak havoc away from it. They’re both future Defensive Player of the Year candidates.
Anunoby’s jump shooting has come along in leaps and bounds. He’s not the most creative type with the ball but has shown enough both off the catch and attacking close outs that he could be a consistent 20-point-per-game scorer in the future.
Barnes could reach that level, too, though he’s a very different type of player. The 20-year-old is already a better ball handler and far better passer than Anunoby, able to instigate the offence for extended stretches.
His shooting has a long way to go and, frankly, may never be anything more than average. That shouldn’t prove too much of an impediment, though, given Barnes’ abilities with ball in hand.
The Raptors often play with Siakam or Barnes as their nominal centre in an all-switching defensive nightmare of a line-up. They do have the ability to play traditionally, though, through Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher and Khem Birch.
Birch is nothing more than a solid back-up, though those players have a place on a roster, while Boucher is a rail-thin pogo stick capable of closing out and blocking shots from remarkable distances. He’s a free agent and what he earns on the open market will be fascinating.
Achiuwa was acquired as part of last off-season’s Lowry trade and, frankly, was less impressive than the Raptors would have hoped. His decision-making was often poor and his finishing around the hoop disappointing.
He did, however, flash a decent outside stroke and, after attempting just the one three-pointer as a rookie in Miami, Achiuwa hit 35.9 per cent of his 156 attempts as a Raptor.
Overall, the Raptors are in a good place. Only veteran reserve forward Thad Young has more than five NBA seasons under their belt and with their best players all either pre-prime or just entering their best years (VanVleet, 28, is the eldest of their top-six players by minutes played), the Raptors core is only going to get better.
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Team needs
Much like the Raptors team from the mid-to-late 2010s, this squad has the look of a talented team without that talisman to put it over the top.
Siakam and VanVleet, fine players both, are not first options on a contender and unfortunately for the Raptors there isn’t an obvious ‘star-who-wants-out’ candidate right now.
Then again, this is Ujiri we’re talking about. Toronto wasn’t on anybody’s radar as a Leonard destination back in 2019. If there is a deal to be made, trust Ujiri to sniff it out.
Could the Raps swing a deal for Bradley Beal if he finally decides he wants out of Washington? What about either of Utah’s apparently unsettled superstars? Plugging Rudy Gobert into this defence would instantly make Toronto the best defence in the NBA.
Who would the Raptors give up, though? Anunoby, with his potential to jump another level as a scorer, is probably that man. He’s on a value contract through to 2024 with a player option for another year. Just about any team would want to get its hands on him.
If Toronto doesn’t look to swing for the fences, then what can it do to improve its current core? With a young and talented starting five, it’s the bench that often lets Toronto down. Its bench players ranked 29th in minutes played this season (behind, of course, Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks). It’s clear that Nurse doesn’t entirely trust his reserves.
Some improvement from Achiuwa would be welcome, adding to Toronto’s versatility as much as to its talent base. The team could also look to trade one of its back-up bigs in Birch or Boucher, knowing that Siakam can pinch hit at the five, as can Young, though the veteran is currently an unrestricted free agent.
The cap sheet
As you might expect from an expert GM like Ujiri, Toronto’s cap situation is pretty positive. It has 11 players under contract – including all of its core players – for $114 million.
The starting backcourt of Gary Trent Jr and VanVleet can both opt out of their deals at the end of the 2023 season and will likely be extended at some point in the next 12 months. Expect VanVleet to opt out of his player option, signing something close to his $114 million-over-four-years maximum.
Trent Jr is a different matter. The 23-year-old has improved year on year and whilst he’s a little one dimensional offensively he’s still worth more than the $17 million his deal will afford him this season.
He’s likely to demand something close to $25 million per season, though, which is a little steep. If the Raptors can secure him for something in the $20-22 million range, they’ll be thrilled. If Trent wants more, he’ll certainly have suitors.
As mentioned previously, Toronto needs to make upgrades to its bench. It will have its exceptions – a $10.3 million mid-level and $4.1 million biannual – to spend as well as a little over $8 million in trade exceptions.
Re-signing Young should also be a priority. He’s getting long in the tooth but is still a fine player in smaller minutes. The team acquired him with full bird rights, so he can be signed beyond the cap.
Young was paid $14 million in the last year of his deal but he’s not worth that sort of money anymore. Expect a two-year deal (the second year may be a team option or partial guarantee) for something in the $8-10 million-per-year range.
The draft
The Raptors sent their first-round pick out to acquire Young, though they do hold Detroit’s second-rounder from an earlier trade.
With the 33rd pick, the Raps are likely to go one of two ways: either a wing scorer or a mobile project big man who, in time, could complete their fearsome defence.
If Toronto look to go big, there is a pair of projects that its coaching staff might back itself to develop: Christian Koloko and Ismael Kamagate.
Both are genuinely huge and terrifically athletic, with speed, agility and ‘ranginess’ in their movements. They both possess good hands and if you squint hard enough there is a defensively dynamic, lob-catching, Gobert-type prospect in there.
Should Toronto look to augment Anunoby and Barnes with an offensively-minded wing, then Michigan’s native Canadian Caleb Houstan is an obvious choice.
At 6’8” with a seven-foot wingspan, he is genuinely wing-sized and already has a pro-level shooting stroke. He’s an energetic player who reads the game well at both ends of the floor and strikes this writer as a student of the game, always looking to learn.
Houstan is a below-average athlete at NBA level, but people said similar things about Desmond Bane. He’s turning out OK.
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