The Chicago Bulls are sweating on a decision to stay or leave from unrestricted free agent Zach LaVine. Photo: Reuters.
The Chicago Bulls made major moves between the 2021 trade deadline and offseason with the main intention being to placate and hopefully re-sign the teams main man, Zach LaVine.
They brought in former Magic All Star centre Nikola Vucevic at the deadline, further strengthening their lineup with a throwback one-on-one assassin in DeMar DeRozan, elite playmaker Lonzo Ball and a defensive tone setter in one time Lakers cult hero Alex Caruso.
What resulted was, when healthy, a devilish whirr of perimeter defense that set LaVine, Ball and Caruso on their way in the open court, with DeRozan and Vooch taking care of the half court offense with surgical precision.
What the Bulls didn’t envision was a rash of injuries up and down the roster that ultimately stifled their early season momentum. They surely didn’t anticipate DeRozan becoming the team leader, relegating Lavine to the status of DeMar’s ‘Robin’ which may result in LaVine moving on to a team where he can again be the undisputed first option.
After making their big moves, the Bulls are stuck pretty much where they started. How do they move forward next season? How do they convince Lavine that his future is in the Windy City?
The Roster
These Bulls were designed to make a deep playoff run. A meek 1st round exit was not what Head of Basketball Operations Arturas Karnisovas imagined when he pushed his chips into the middle of the table.
That said, the Bulls early season form did provide proof of concept for the squad as currently constructed. If they can go through a season without major absences from Ball, Caruso and Patrick Williams – LaVine also missed time – then there is a world where the Bulls slide into the top four in the East.
Much of that depends on the out of contract Lavine. The 27 year old saw his scoring average drop a full three points (27.4 to 24.4) as he struggled with more possessions off the ball. Lavine remains an elite scorer who can fill it up from anywhere in the half court and he’s still electric in the open floor.
The issue for Chicago is that LaVine is an unrestricted free agent and the ” rel=”noopener” target=”_blank”>jungle drums are not beating a positive tune. If LaVine leaves the Bulls then, whilst they’ll still have a solid team, all of their efforts over the past 18 months have in effect been for nought.
LaVine or no LaVine, the Bulls do have a defensive identity that stems from Ball, Caruso and, increasingly, young forward Patrick Williams. When Caruso and Ball went down midway through the season (Williams didn’t return from his own early season injury until late March) the Bulls had a top five defense that fell all the way to bottom five.
There was a positive in those injuries in the emergence of rookie Ayo Dosunmu. The high motor guard gives the Bulls a Caruso clone. Playing those two with Ball might even make up for the fact that LaVine, DeRozan and Vucevic are less than satisfactory defenders.
Team Needs
The Bulls primary need is for LaVine to sign on the dotted line. Given he’s already tried to leave once – his current contract is a result of a matched offer sheet the guard signed with Sacramento (yep!) back in 2018 – the Bulls have every reason to be concerned.
Should LaVine leave for pastures anew they do have a young player ready to step into his role in Coby White. Like LaVine, the 3rd year pro suffered a little with the increased depth in Chicago’s backcourt, seeing less of the ball. A genuine combo guard, White could turn into a nice compliment to Ball as a scorer and dovetail with Vucevic as a playmaker. Defensively he’s not much to talk about, but neither is LaVine.
The Bulls also need to flesh out their big man rotation. Vucevic turns 32 just as next season starts. Whilst his game has never been reliant on athleticism, any drop in his speed and agility would see him become a traffic cone on defense. His backup is Tony Bradley, an entirely forgettable career 3rd centre masquerading as a 2nd unit player. The Bulls need both an upgrade on Bradley and an eventual successor to bog Vooch.
At the four, Patrick Williams is clearly the man of the future. The 20 year old is already a solid defender and a surprisingly good shot maker off the bounce. He’s a career 41% shooter from deep, but don’t let that number fool you: Williams is a low volume shooter (1.9 attempts) who is generally wide open when he lets fly. The Bulls don’t really have a viable backup for Williams. Should they look for one, a stretchy player like a Trey Lyles or Georges Niang should be their focus.
The Cap Sheet
The Bulls salary sheet currently has $98 million of commitments to nine players, with Bradley’s player option taking it to an even $100 million, should he opt in.
LaVine and reserves Derrick Jones Jr and Troy Brown Jr are the only players of any consequence that the Bulls need to look at bringing back.
Juniors Jones and Brown have yet to really make their marks at this point of their careers. However they’re both young and athletic enough to warrant another look, should the price be right.
Let’s not bury the lede any longer. It’s all about LaVine this off-season in Chicago.
The two-time All Star has already showed that he’s not tied to the team, meaning that the Bulls primary competitive advantage in securing his signature is cold, hard cash. Chicago can go as high as $212 million over five years against four years and $160 million from another suitor. There are only five teams that have cap space to sign LaVine to a max deal. Detroit are too early in their rebuild, whilst Orlando are, well, Orlando. The others, though, are concerning.
The Blazers are looking to make a big splash and have a spot in their back court next to Damian Lillard waiting. Indiana are aggressively rebuilding their team and have openly dangled Malcolm Brogdon and picks. San Antonio are a good team in search of a tent pole star and just moved their former starting two guard at the trade deadline. LaVine certainly has options.
Something else to keep an eye on is the Bulls negotiations with Vucevic, who is an expiring contract in 2023. The Bulls do not have a ready made replacement for their starting centre, so unless a trade for another big man is on the horizon, Vucevic has the Bulls over a barrel. If he is extended, look for something like $20 million per season for three years, with a slight discount if the contract extends to a fourth.
